Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

[Mandy Orme]

As a cold Lover and  a total novice to reading charts ect but learning a lot as I read these post ,I have to hold my breath before looking at the thread throughout the day lol one minute I'm excited it's going to say cold and the next a bit flat when it shows mild but as you say that's the weather for you. I must say it's absolutely bitter out there tonight so making the most of the few days left of cold spell until the mild sweeps in .

Thank you all for such interesting post even if I can't understand them all ,I'm learning though

 

Edited December 14, 2022 by Mandy Orme
Missed spelt

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Well well ecm improves significantly between 168 and 192 hours!!gfs maybe onto something here!!!

It’s been mentions few times how the artic high is playing havoc with the outputs and if that’s the case these thing rarely sort them self out until 72 hours.

[Mark wheeler]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Well well ecm improves significantly between 168 and 192 hours!!gfs maybe onto something here!!!

Hey the Navgem 6z had a northerly

[sheikhy]

Just now, frosty ground said:

It’s been mentions few times how the artic high is playing havoc with the outputs and if that’s the case these thing rarely sort them self out until 72 hours.

Still think there is scope for the colder air to return even quicker!!shall be looking for that on the 00zs!!

[northwestsnow]

Polar NWer ?

[Tim Bland]

Hmm interesting feature in the channel  

[Weathizard]

That arctic high is a real beast, highly unusual to see an area of high pressure that powerful at this time of the year.

[Captain Shortwave]

The Canadian lobe of the polar vortex essentially disintegrates, leaving us under the trough that is introduced this weekend. Turning pretty cold again.

This pretty much leaves week 2 wide open in terms of options.

Edited December 14, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[Mark wheeler]

Don't look at the JMA . Well alright  here it is  .

 

Something for the mild fans to hang their hats on to .

Edited December 14, 2022 by Mark wheeler

[Allseasons-Si]

Day 9 is V cold.

and look at that arctic high,...1070mb

[LRD]

ECM goes west-based at the end but nothing to worry about at this stage

Yesterday things looked promising until the UKMO, ECM and GFS 12zs. Today it's the exact opposite with things looking 'meh' until today's 12zs

The change in the GFS ensembles is noteworthy but, for balance, I guess it could all flip again. Encouraging stuff though

[blizzard81]

26 minutes ago, goosey007 said:

Snow showers packed up moving across UK great to see ....but the GFS is flopping around like a fish out of water cant be trusted! Need ECM to show us something on the same lines......

 

 

ECM has been flip flopping too. All the models are struggling. 

[Mark wheeler]

When do the Mogreps 12z ensembles come out this evening?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Help...help...the good old words from penolope pit stop...I read the 10 dayer and was left confused..I then read bin the ECM its going wrong..now I'm reading its looking better now...I rang up the Netweather helpline and all they could do was direct me to the crisis team

Seriously that's the problem when you try to analyse frame by frame it can end up making you look a fool...and its blatantly obvious to me that these models are struggling I  which direction to go,so are throwing out every solution bar the kitchen sink! That's a good thing by the way...and I'm glad you lot bring the frame by frame stuff anyway as it's kind of gripping stuff!

Next week is far from set in stone..I also think Scotland could end up seeing a fair bit of snow from Sunday...this could easily dig South again.

But I'm afraid to say it...the models are really struggling to get a grip on this NH pattern...they're not used to seeing it being the big problem.

Expect the unexpected moving forward and you will not be disappointed ️ 

Edited December 14, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[Purga]

ECM 12z tries to go Grinch at D10.

But not as Grinch as 00z

[Rexx]

My mental health really can't cope with all the model flip-flopping. I'm going to sulk in the shed. I'll come back with either the sledge or the BBQ. If someone could let me know which is the better option please...answers on a postcard.

[Cold Winter Night]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Day 9 is V cold.

and look at that arctic high,...1070mb

1070 at the surface, and 500hPa at 576-580 dam!
A beast it is.

That Arctic High is also pretty much the only Day 10 thing that survived the past 24hrs comparing EC 12z yesterday 240h and today 216h!

[Derecho]

A better EC this evening, however is it a sensible middle ground scenario? or is it going to shift further towards cold?

The better that north-westerly, the higher the chance of a surprise. As mentioned earlier, the output to me at the moment is very similar to that of December 2017. For a refresher, these are the charts and how I'd like to see it play out:

Some differences there, especially how the pressure built towards Greenland.... but if we can nail that NW blast of colder air it could be of benefit.

Edited December 14, 2022 by Quicksilver1989

[Bricriu]

It's a stinker the way it goes west based just before Christmas, but as others have said it's 10 days away so things will surely change between now and then. I  would love for colder weather to hang on over Christmas. 

[phil nw.]

The switch to a colder trend again on the 12's is mainly down to  somewhat stronger northern heights- enough to push our pattern south just enough to get that lee northerly.

As we all realise we really are on the margins and a nudge either way will spell cold or mild.Let's hope that the 12z runs around day 6/7 is the trend we can maintain by slowing that upstream low.

In this situation it is even more important not to focus too far ahead other than give the later frames a cursory glance.

Edge of the seat stuff and so addictive,every run is eagerly awaited.

 

Edited December 14, 2022 by phil nw.

[northwestsnow]

Feel like there has been a small swing back towards cold this evening...

Confidence of a colder phase around day 7 but we need more upgrades..

[Snowmadsam]

EC Op teases on what COULD be! Thing that struck me the most was the 1070 mb at the North Pole at +216.

As a late twenty something who has been lurking and sometimes contributing I'd never thought I'd see that!

Whilst all model output is guidance I await the Ens, if the GFS is sniffing out a pattern and we have more of a mild/cool "blip" (I mean look at the NH pattern) then POTENTIALLY this winter could be a treat. 

My personal FI marker is from Sunday 18th Dec (Happy Hanukkah for those who celebrate!!) onwards

[pureasthedriven]

8 minutes ago, Purga said:

ECM 12z tries to go Grinch at D10.

But not as Grinch as 00z

Does run into a brick wall, mind…

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

It's a stinker the way it goes west based just before Christmas, but as others have said it's 10 days away so things will surely change between now and then. I  would love for colder weather to hang on over Christmas. 

West based as in a +NAO: LP near Iceland, HP not far away from Lisbon? Please tell me what a 'west-based' -NAO is?!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Starting to get a feeling that some real fun and games could be the other side of Christmas. This isn’t no ordinary winter setup in our Hemisphere. Perhaps this is just a taster of what’s ahead. Most classic winters started off with a preliminary cold snap. Gav from Gavsweathervids highlighted this in one of his historical videos. The height rises from the Aleutian side could well start things off.