Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

[Jake March-Jones]

17 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

For all the northern hemispheric synoptic prettiness, the outlook is zonal for the UK and not 'cold' zonal (apart from maybe Scotland). There's no getting away from that now. Sorry but it had to be said. 

Yup... We're done. Mild and zonal until the new year I'd say.

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Same from my end dude!!!gona watch the charts with interest but not gona really comment unless something exciting turns up and closer than 9 or 10 days away!!more for my sanity than anything else lol!!but i know my peeps shall keep this forum ticking and bless u guys for that❤❤!!

Missed you tonight mate. With your early calls.... I was there.  Just like you waiting to declear huge model flip to cold.. maybe one of those tasty ensemble members will make it to the op podium soon

[Derecho]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Gefs are intensifying that vortex segment north of scandi and it pushes South a little as a result - something to watch as it could force the polar front further south over the festive period 

Yeah some cold weather piling up to the north. A lot of the ens are better then the OP so still some hope for something pre-christmas.

[Mucka]

The one consistency at the moment for predicting Xmas to New Year UK synoptic is GFS ensemble mean.

That is still suggesting a battle ground between cold and warm air masses over the UK Christmas through to New year.

Given this is all still outside the reliable at 8+ days and assuming the pattern is essentially correct then shifts in boundary between airmasses a few hundred miles North or South are nothing at these ranges over a small area.

We see the colder air to the N start to win out around Xmas eve and push S and given there is likely to be to be some precipitation then it still seems a good bet that there will be snow somewhere over the few days from Xmas eve through Xmas and Boxing day unless we get unlucky and get the worse case outcome. N England and Scotland are currently favourite but that could change.

I'm sure people will post, if not already at time of posting, some nice ensemble members which is great fun and something I love to do but the big picture is where it is at for now and that is what the mean is useful for, not predicting on the day conditions of course.

AS for the big day then some perturbations have very cold air across the UK, others have a boundary between airmasses somewhere over the UK and others have milder air.

Let's hope the cold members are the direction of travel and that can be noted by comparing mean runs getting the cold steadily further S.

Oh, and that ECM and UKMO improve over the 5-7 day period.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 16, 2022 by Mucka

[damianslaw]

Lots of differences between model output today at the 144 hr range onwards makes me cautious to call how things will pan out post 23rd, need to hold horses I feel and expect further changes over the weekend. Its a complex set up, and fine margins between the cold polar air and the tropical maritime air. 

[Cymro]

20 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Just a comment on the model output in all honesty, the switch has been huge. We had a few cold days and a 2 minute shower of light snow, think most people seek more then that (granted, people have had more elsewhere).

If the models had been set out from last week on a period of mild weather then it wouldn't have been frustrating... but we've gone from what looked like a 48 hour mild blip followed by further cold to a longer mild period with heights over southern Europe that will be difficult to shift.

Plenty of winter to go but things could have been a lot better next week in the context of what they currently are.

“We had a few cold days” is just simply not accurate when we’ve had 8 CET means below 0! This hasn’t happened since 2010 and the beginning of December has been in the top 4 coldest starts to Winter in 300 years!

I haven’t seen much snow but can still appreciate that this is a noteworthy spell of below average temperatures in an exceptional year for quite the contrary! 

[Dancerwithwings]

This isn’t a mean that isn’t to be stiff at for Christmas Eve, Merry Christmas guys and gals

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Dancerwithwings said:

This isn’t a mean that isn’t to be stiff at for Christmas Eve, Merry Christmas guys and gals

The trouble with pub run day 8 means is........Oh I just don't have the time right now

[MJB]

Control wouldn't take much to be very good 

Edited December 16, 2022 by MJB

[Dancerwithwings]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

The trouble with pub run day 8 means is........Oh I just don't have the time right now

I’m like that with wife …..but thats D1

[blizzard81]

Just now, Dancerwithwings said:

I’m like that with wife …..but thats D1

 

[Derecho]

13 minutes ago, Cymro said:

“We had a few cold days” is just simply not accurate when we’ve had 8 CET means below 0! This hasn’t happened since 2010 and the beginning of December has been in the top 4 coldest starts to Winter in 300 years!

I haven’t seen much snow but can still appreciate that this is a noteworthy spell of below average temperatures in an exceptional year for quite the contrary! 

Yes it is a bit harsh but it was just a cold bunch of days and some decent falls of snow locally. Will people remember this in 20 years time? I doubt it, whenever people go on about notable cold spells they don't bring up December 1976 for example, most of us chase the snowy synoptics.

It was nice seeing some ice days here but it was just a decent string of much colder then average days, without anything exceptional.

It doesn't compare to December 2010. Even December 2009 was far better IMO because the weather that came along with it was more interesting to watch.

Anyhow the ens have some interest a rough breakdown for christmas day:

 

Mild or average across the UK – P4, P13, P26, P30

Cold boundary over Scotland – OP, Control, P1, P6, P7, P8, P9, P10, P17, P18, P22, P24, P27, P29

Cold boundary over northern England – P11, P16, P28

Cold over most or all of the UK – P2, P3, P5, P12, P14, P15, P19, P20, P21, P23, P25  

Edited December 16, 2022 by Quicksilver1989

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yes it is a bit harsh but it was just a cold bunch of days and some decent falls of snow locally. Will people remember this in 20 years time? I doubt it, whenever people go on about notable cold spells they don't bring up December 1976 for example, most of us chase the snowy synoptics.

It was nice seeing some ice days here but it was a decent string of much colder then average days, without anything exceptional.

It doesn't compare to December 2010. Even December 2009 was far better IMO because the weather that came along with it was more interesting to watch.

Spot on 

[January Snowstorm]

The potential on the charts for the Christmas period is quite something!!

Could go either way but as I said earlier if you have heights to our North, in my opinion there's only one route and that's a 100mph to cold!!

It's a short timeframe so tomorrow will likely decide!

Edited December 16, 2022 by January Snowstorm

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

The potential on the charts for the Christmas period is quite something!!

Could go either way but as I said earlier if you have heights to our North, in my opinion there's only one route and that's a 100mph to cold!!

That's just not the case at all. I've witnessed many winters with strong HLB but the energy to our south west is too strong along with the Euro high balloon. Great to see on the northern hemisphere view but delivers didly squat to north west Europe. The models are teasing us with scraps in the extended but as they get into the 5 to 6 day timeframe, they become west based - neg nao. Carrot danglers. That's what is happening here. 

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

That's just not the case at all. I've witnessed many winters with strong HLB but the energy to our south west is too strong along with the Euro high balloon. Great to see on the northern hemisphere view but delivers didly squat to north west Europe. The models are teasing us with scraps in the extended but as they get into the 5 to 6 day timeframe, they become west based - neg nao. Carrot danglers. That's what is happening here. 

Head agrees Heart says nope we are waking up to overnight Christmas cold flip as per one of the perbs

[Jono E]

This really has a sniff of a few years ago (2018 I think). We seen to be heading into a loco-zonal set up and this will become entrenched. Loco-zonal is typical for the UK and ……disappointing.

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Head agrees Heart says nope we are waking up to overnight Christmas cold flip as per one of the perbs

Tbh given the comments on the professional side of things there not even sure ie knife edge comments. Looking at things on the nhp blocking and - NAO don't guarantee winter to a small island surrounded with fairly mild seas. Anything uping the chances is obv better than a raging ssw wind and going into the cod. The insipid heights to the sse of the uk are what they are but I'd not be concerned over model output over 144hrs atm

[JBMWeatherForever]

Been looking at the latest model output and find that there is a bit of a disconnect between some of the comments this evening and what the models are currently showing ! There is still plenty of serious potential for the Christmas period, it may have trended away from the holly grail, but potential there is, STILL !  Northern parts especially have a higher than normal chance of a white christmas, and with the timescales involved that could easily shift further south !    

[LetItSnow!]

1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yes it is a bit harsh but it was just a cold bunch of days and some decent falls of snow locally. Will people remember this in 20 years time? I doubt it, whenever people go on about notable cold spells they don't bring up December 1976 for example, most of us chase the snowy synoptics.

It was nice seeing some ice days here but it was just a decent string of much colder then average days, without anything exceptional.

It doesn't compare to December 2010. Even December 2009 was far better IMO because the weather that came along with it was more interesting to watch.

Anyhow the ens have some interest a rough breakdown for christmas day:

 

Mild or average across the UK – P4, P13, P26, P30

Cold boundary over Scotland – OP, Control, P1, P6, P7, P8, P9, P10, P17, P18, P22, P24, P27, P29

Cold boundary over northern England – P11, P16, P28

Cold over most or all of the UK – P2, P3, P5, P12, P14, P15, P19, P20, P21, P23, P25  

Well, at least these cold bunch of days managed a date record for lowest ever minima at -9.3C last night. Some perspective is needed here. Anyone with a brain wouldn't compare it with the BftE from 2018 for example, but here in London we've barely scraped above freezing and had heavy snow lay for about five days. I definitely will remember for a long time. If you didn't get the snow then of course you woulnd't think it was so great,

[Derecho]

1 minute ago, LetItSnow! said:

Well, at least these cold bunch of days managed a date record for lowest ever minima at -9.3C last night. Some perspective is needed here. Anyone with a brain wouldn't compare it with the BftE from 2018 for example, but here in London we've barely scraped above freezing and had heavy snow lay for about five days. I definitely will remember for a long time. If you didn't get the snow then of course you woulnd't think it was so great,

Yup, purely from a temperature perspective it was impressive and good to see Londoner's got something. I guess everyone looks for different things, some are happy with notable cold, others prefer the snowier scenarios. I suspect if the average CET for this cold spell was a degree and a half higher but it was much snowier, people would have rated this cold spell a lot higher.

[Kentspur]

2 hours ago, JBMWeatherForever said:

Been looking at the latest model output and find that there is a bit of a disconnect between some of the comments this evening and what the models are currently showing ! There is still plenty of serious potential for the Christmas period, it may have trended away from the holly grail, but potential there is, STILL !  Northern parts especially have a higher than normal chance of a white christmas, and with the timescales involved that could easily shift further south !    

I'll be surprised if we see any more of the white stuff down here my end, historically when We've had 1 half decent sort of snow event (had about 3to 4 inches here Sunday night in most of NW Kent from what ive seen) we very rarely get any more falls for the rest of the winter bar the odd flurry thats occurred, even 2009 we didnt do that great compared to CS England etc and apart from 28th Nov to 1st Dec 2010 the last 1foot+ fall here courtesy of a Thames streamer we had very little after this for the rest of the winter.

I'll take the surprise 3.5inches we had be happy with and pray we go against the usual yearly snowfall pattern in without getting my hopes up. Heres some pics from my walk today in the local Ancient forest near me. The models would suggest it will all be gone this weekend oh well it was nice while it lasted.

Edited December 17, 2022 by Kentspur

[Battleground Snow]

Ukmo is poised at 144, if that low heads south east the floodgates could open from the north, 168 will be interesting 

[January Snowstorm]

Gfs looking good as well

The upgrades are coming this morning!

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Gfs looking good as well

The upgrades are coming this morning!

Indeed, GFS says merry Xmas for the North!

Edit, and the Gem!

 

Edited December 17, 2022 by Battleground Snow