Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

[Derecho]

7 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

LOCO? Are you sure it wasn't the Mexico met office

I think I will take our own met and the guys on here over their thoughts.

Technically I think it's correct, loco means crazy?, crazy zonal sounds like meridional?

Crazy Loco GIF – Crazy Loco The Simpsons – discover and share GIFs

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Edited December 18, 2022 by Quicksilver1989

[ANYWEATHER]

It's beginning to look like Christmas. ..Gfs certainly wants to bring a white very cold Christmas to all...?

[Jono E]

Sorry guys, I should have elaborated. Loco-zonal is a more localised type of zonality. With zonal patterns for Northwestern Europe never fully extending into Central Europe. Basically mild, wet and windy for the UK. I hope that provides some clarification.

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, Jono E said:

Sorry guys, I should have elaborated. Loco-zonal is a more localised type of zonality. With zonal patterns for Northwestern Europe never fully extending into Central Europe. Basically mild, wet and windy for the UK. I hope that provides some clarification.

Ah ok- can ya wack up the source of this ???

[joggs]

Onto the ECM. Hopefully it follows the GFS(coldies).

Disappointing Ukmo.

Very touch and go this viewing of all the suites.

[alexisj9]

3 minutes ago, Jono E said:

Sorry guys, I should have elaborated. Loco-zonal is a more localised type of zonality. With zonal patterns for Northwestern Europe never fully extending into Central Europe. Basically mild, wet and windy for the UK. I hope that provides some clarification.

Localised, yes we can see that and the high stopping it going through. However I'm still not convinced. It gets colders again after today's warm up, than on the last suite, and the bump up after is also smaller. I think the change causing the cold in the GFS is much earlier than people are looking 

[Eagle Eye]

That was quite the final. 

Back to the Models...

Just a reminder that a zonal wave trains can often scatter energy hence we see points of strong +VE zonal wind anomalies and points of -VE zonal wind anomalies and it looks like they initially form near Greenland hence the long-term Greenland block potential. Eventually moving West as the wave train moves on and as long as the Greenland block stays in place we could see fairly good cold prospects going into the last week of December and into the New Year. This all depends on how the energy is scattered of course but there are good signals background wise for this to happen. Slight favour of cold rihr now let's just hope the zonal wind -VE doesn't move somewhere insignificant for us because that could also happen.

[Frigid]

That's a solid set of ensembles from the GFS for the Christmas period.. hmm

[Drifter]

The 96hr ECM chart already looks drastically different to any other run?

Edited December 18, 2022 by Drifter

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

4 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

That was quite the final. 

Back to the Models...

Just a reminder that a zonal wave trains can often scatter energy hence we see points of strong +VE zonal wind anomalies and points of -VE zonal wind anomalies and it looks like they initially form near Greenland hence the long-term Greenland block potential. Eventually moving West as the wave train moves on and as long as the Greenland block stays in place we could see fairly good cold prospects going into the last week of December and into the New Year. This all depends on how the energy is scattered of course but there are good signals background wise for this to happen. Slight favour of cold rihr now let's just hope the zonal wind -VE doesn't move somewhere insignificant for us because that could also happen.

Can the cold come back after the mild equalising ? Can we see sub -5 850s soon to produce some snowfall for southern regions ?

A strong Scandi high could be useful!

[Methuselah]

Well, I know this GFS 12Z at six-million hours is about as much use as a fart in a calendar... But, anyway, it says what it says:

    

With any luck, a load of cobblers!

[Drifter]

12 minutes ago, Jono E said:

Sorry guys, I should have elaborated. Loco-zonal is a more localised type of zonality. With zonal patterns for Northwestern Europe never fully extending into Central Europe. Basically mild, wet and windy for the UK. I hope that provides some clarification.

So it’s just a term you’ve made up? How do the US guys that you mentioned apply to this? 

[Kasim Awan]

GFS mean 25th.

[MattH]

13 minutes ago, Jono E said:

Sorry guys, I should have elaborated. Loco-zonal is a more localised type of zonality. With zonal patterns for Northwestern Europe never fully extending into Central Europe. Basically mild, wet and windy for the UK. I hope that provides some clarification.

There is simply no such thing...

[CoventryWeather]

It'll be an interesting next few days -some changes to the Christmas period, and now a stronger signal for cold. Yes, the UKMO and GEM aren't fully interested, but the trends are heading more in favour for a colder Christmas. 

Another thing  to look out for is the lows to the south west - if the cold air does win out, then some potentially snowy conditions? 

Model watching back in action. 

[Paul T]

Oh dear. 

[Eskimo]

1 minute ago, Commander Occlusion said:

Oh dear. 

Looks similar to the GFS in terms of the lows placement at 120h 

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, MattH said:

There is simply no such thing...

Not quite? Localized negative nao is possible where a localized negative north to south pressure gradient sets up. Basically all he means is a strong jet into NW Europe with cold lingering in the east. Definitely possible - though this is not described as localized zonality.

[Eagle Eye]

1 minute ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Can the cold come back after the mild equalising ? Can we see sub -5 850s soon to produce some snowfall for southern regions ?

A strong Scandi high could be useful!

Sorry I'm not great at that sort of thing as a long term forecast like that would be almost impossible, at that point it comes down to little dynamics that can't be forecasted well yet.

A Scandi high could be helpful but in this situation with a developing reaction to the Eurasian -VE zonal pattern and therefore the +VE feedback forming its very unlikely so I'll be chasing the Greenland high for now.

[Paul T]

Re ECM 120hrs. higher heights over Spain and low further west than GFS. I hope for the best @ 144hrs + 

[Paul T]

144hrs 00z and 12z ECM for comparison (12 hours different of course) 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

8 minutes ago, MattH said:

There is simply no such thing...

Yeh just googled it and the closest I got was a firm called Zonal Hospitality

[Methuselah]

9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, I know this GFS 12Z at six-million hours is about as much use as a fart in a calendar... But, anyway, it says what it says:

    

With any luck, a load of cobblers!

I did of course mean a colander!

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, MATTWOLVES said:

Yeh just googled it and the closest I got was a firm called Zonal Hospitality

Localized zonality is definitely a valid concept

[January Snowstorm]

At 144hrs the ecm manages a half way house between ukmo and gfs. Not too bad but not great either!