Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, Paul White. said:

If anyone gets frustrated with some of opinions in these threads, just remember that there is an ignore user function. You could message the mods for the link. It’s a wonderful tool to filter out your own preferences of the kind of posts that you want to read, be them mild or cold biased. I love it. 

I'm bemused as to why some consider the ignore function a great tool! Firstly just because you don't like what a certain poster is saying or the fact you don't agree with him or her....doesn't mean you need to ignore them. It's all about opinions and everyone has the rights too put there points across...the problem seems to occur when posters have a certain preference for conditions (ie) cold and snow in winter and heat in summer,and you have other posters playing down those conditions by stating the outlook is poor! Yes we can all agree it looks poor for the next couple of weeks max...the irritation occurs when some start saying that's the whole month gone,or even the rest of the Winter.

Obviously this is not just a Winter problem,because we will also have a scenario come late June when things have started poorly and posters will quickly say that's Summer over! And I think most of them do it out of frustration morr than anything....because you just can't guarantee a forecast of several weeks and months,even on the back of teleconnections...cause background signals can also be badly wrong...and if those background signals are wrong,then the NWP will also be wrong!

So there is not a chance of me using the ignore button,I would rather read what all posters have to say,even if I don't agree with it. Plus when your not logged in you can still see what everyone says anyway...whether they're on ignore or not.

Tensions run high at this time of the year..I understand the frustration especially as I've witnessed significant Wintry spells of yester year....Not much point in us falling out over it though is there? But life as it is today and social media the way it is..far to many get influenced real easy...visit a football forum and you will get people literally wanting too kill one another over who's team is best! I'm right...your wrong attitude...and I think that philosophy can quite easily spill over into Weather related topics also!.

But it is what it is...and it will do what it will do..whether we like it or not.

Now let's hope for some strat damage in the coming weeks.

 

Edited December 27, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[January Snowstorm]

Interesting the jma is now showing a deep low on New year's also. Could be our first named storm

[dan dan]

2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Correct

 

Apart from the teleconnective indications, the two week ens were pretty good.  The below from 15 days out. I have plenty of others and the archives of ens output are on meteociel 

 

Thanks BA, I was trying to find that exact chart but struggling to find it on Meteociel. What I'm trying to figure out is; did the ensembles suddenly flip to showing this outcome or was it more gradual? As in, if I looked at the mean on the 22nd of November (the day before the chart above) would you be able to tell that was the direction of travel?

[Kasim Awan]

4 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

I'm bemused as to why some consider the ignore function a great tool! Firstly just because you don't like what a certain poster is saying or the fact you don't agree with him or her....doesn't mean you need to ignore them. It's all about opinions and everyone has the rights too put there points across...the problem seems to occur when posters have a certain preference for conditions (ie) cold and snow in winter and heat in summer,and you have other posters playing down those conditions by stating the outlook is poor! Yes we can all agree it looks poor for the next couple of weeks max...the irritation occurs when some start saying that's the whole month gone,or even the rest of the Winter.

Obviously this is not just a Winter problem,because we will also have a scenario come late June when things have started poorly and posters will quickly say that's Summer over! And I think most of them do it out of frustration morr than anything....because you just can't guarantee a forecast of several weeks and months,even on the back of teleconnections...cause background signals can also be badly wrong...and if those background signals are wrong,then the NWP will also be wrong!

So there is not a chance of me using the ignore button,I would rather read what all posters have to say,even if I don't agree with it. Plus when your not logged in you can still see what everyone says anyway...whether they're on ignore or not.

Tensions run high at this time of the year..I understand the frustration especially as I've witnessed significant Wintry spells of yester year....Not much point in us falling out over it though is there? But life as it is today and social media the way it is..far to many get influenced real easy...visit a football forum and you will get people literally wanting too kill one another over who's team is best! I'm right...your wrong attitude...and I think that philosophy can quite easily spill over into Weather related topics also!.

But it is what it is...and it will do what it will do..whether we like it or not.

Now let's hope for some strat damage in the coming weeks.

 

I really see things as a mixture of both views

This is generally closer to reality than one of the polar opposites when opposing views are in play

So probably overall zonal next few weeks with a chance of some scandi or mid atlantic ridge development... anything probably short lived until we can punch the PV somehow

[Jason M]

GEFS now out to 276 hours. Not many straws to grasp in amongst them. Best I can say is that 'more runs needed' and look forward to another shiny set tomorrow morning.

[Derecho]

The only thing I can see of interest in the model output at the moment is the high towards Svalbard at day 9. Given this is moving east over the Arctic there would be frigid cold underneath it, akin to Feb 2012 or 2018. 

However getting that to allign in such a way that it brings cold air across Europe is extremely difficult, especially with the setup we have going into the new year!

[KTtom]

The Olympic turd polishing gold medallist would find it difficult to come up with anything shiny after the overnight runs!

 

No sign of a Scandi high and an Astronaut breaking wind would have more of an effect than than the latest warming temps in the strat.

 

ECM day 10, if there is any hope out there than this is usually the place to find that straw......nope!

Edited December 28, 2022 by KTtom

[Lukesluckybunch]

What an absolutely horrible run from the ECM. In the later frames with high pressure to the East and South..boring mild stuff!..it amazes me how somewhere such as Norway can have such cold weather it's not exactly a million miles away from the uk,I can think that it's due to the latitude it's at. Also.proves how hard it is to get colder air from the east over the north sea!

Edited December 28, 2022 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[suxer]

1 hour ago, KTtom said:

The Olympic turd polishing gold medallist would find it difficult to come up with anything shiny after the overnight runs!

 

No sign of a Scandi high and an Astronaut breaking wind would have more of an effect than than the latest warming temps in the strat.

 

ECM day 10, if there is any hope out there than this is usually the place to find that straw......nope!

Always know the outlooks poor when I've seen you post in the morning 

[Weather-history]

Has anyone looked into what is going on with ECM op and their ensembles?

Look at this, ECM Manchester 2m temps, it goes from coldest at 3rd Jan to warmest at 5th 

 

It did it with the 12z run as well

You would expect outliers but this often? Are the ensembles out of kilter or the op run? 

[That ECM]

T144 all 3. I genuinely feel for people who are sad when they view the norm. 47-63-91-2010 etc are referenced because they were not the norm. 
 

like many on here I enjoy cold, we are a day nearer another cold spell. We just don’t know when.  

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

30 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

What an absolutely horrible run from the ECM. In the later frames with high pressure to the East and South..boring mild stuff!..it amazes me how somewhere such as Norway can have such cold weather it's not exactly a million miles away from the uk,I can think that it's due to the latitude it's at. Also.proves how hard it is to get colder air from the east over the north sea!

Norway is also considerably above average with rain in Oslo on quite a few days!

 

The only places that seem to do well these days are the US and Canada!

Edited December 28, 2022 by prolongedSnowLover

[Lukesluckybunch]

7 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Norway is also considerably above average with rain in Oslo on quite a few days!

 

The only places that seem to do well these days are the US and Canada!

Yes good point..Canada when winter arrives it doesn't leave!even places like Moscow these days are nowhere near as cold as they used to be!..might just move to winnipeg!haha

[bluearmy]

9 hours ago, dan dan said:

Thanks BA, I was trying to find that exact chart but struggling to find it on Meteociel. What I'm trying to figure out is; did the ensembles suddenly flip to showing this outcome or was it more gradual? As in, if I looked at the mean on the 22nd of November (the day before the chart above) would you be able to tell that was the direction of travel?

The three ec46 runs prior to that mean had high height anoms across our north for the first week of December and a general absence of high euro anoms.  Meteociel eps archives are only to day 10 so I can only go anecdotally and I recall that we had an Atlantic  lw trough progged towards the U.K. gradually looking like it was sinking whilst weakening with sceuro high height anoms extended across the NH to n America  

[bluearmy]

15 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Norway is also considerably above average with rain in Oslo on quite a few days!

 

The only places that seem to do well these days are the US and Canada!

 

Yes those yankees and Canadians are really in the freezer for the next 10 days …… allowing for the fact that the vast majority of Canada sits in the freezer for winter normally and warmer than average can still mean sub zero! 

Edited December 28, 2022 by bluearmy

[jellybaby1969]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Yes those yankees and Canadians are really in the freezer for the next 10 days ……

Indeed I watch a fair bit of the weather news on USA weather nation..big swing toward end of the week to very Mild weather..they had a cold snap..just a very severe one..temps back the the 70s and 80s in the southern states and 50s 60s widely elsewhere.

[northwestsnow]

Just sickening if you want cold weather.

[bluearmy]

The weakening of the upper strat vortex generally losing some impetus and whilst we should see it displaced to svaalbard, it may well retain average to slightly above average strength.  Some hints it may become a little stretched. I’d say that the trop will still be able to dictate and it not subject to forcing from higher up. But at the moment, we should expect the westerly mobile pattern to maintain rather than seeing an sustained amplification in our sector of the NH.  That’s a prediction based on the mean and ops. There are some sniffs in the clusters and gefs members which promise more but they remain sniffs for now.  Slightly intrigued that the predicted sceuro ridging could be losing traction which may be to the detriment of euro high anoms in general. 

[Gary2701]

The forecast for Friday seems up in the air.  Both national TV and local TV are saying we have to watch Friday as not sure what is happening.  The jet stream has become volatile because of the USA storms.  Does anyone know?

 

[bluearmy]

11 minutes ago, Gary2701 said:

The forecast for Friday seems up in the air.  Both national TV and local TV are saying we have to watch Friday as not sure what is happening.  The jet stream has become volatile because of the USA storms.  Does anyone know?

 

The n American storm and stark dropping of temps has flattened the pattern and fired up the jet across the Atlantic towards us. if it had taken a different track then we could have been looking at a rather more interesting profile but it didn’t and we see a strong jet streak headed towards the U.K. which has some unpredictability built in. Hence the uncertainty about small scale features that could deepen/crop up at short notice and therefore bring even stronger winds than expected. 

Edited December 28, 2022 by bluearmy

[RhHh]

29 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Just sickening if you want cold weather.

It's the same for most of Europe. I imagine that the skiing won't be too great.

[SLEETY]

Not sure why  anyone is surprised by January anymore. 

It's a repeatable pattern in January over many decades now, with low pressure to the North and High pressure to the South. 

With high pressure to the South moving further North at times to turn it very mild  over most of Europe. 

 

[Ali1977]

The last few runs have had a decent cold PM shot at around day 12, and this has been helped by heights to our NW displacing the PV SE through the U.K. 

These heights to the NW are showing quite early at T132 here, so let’s see if they can gain some further movement North giving a more potent PM shot. 

The last few runs have had a decent cold PM shot at around day 12, and this has been helped by heights to our NW displacing the PV SE through the U.K. 

These heights to the NW are showing quite early at T132 here, so let’s see if they can gain some further movement North giving a more potent PM shot. 

[Guest]

Scandinavian High forming and continental air into the southeast at 150hrs on 06z GFS 

Edited December 28, 2022 by Guest

[Premiere Neige]

1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Norway is also considerably above average with rain in Oslo on quite a few days!

 

The only places that seem to do well these days are the US and Canada!

Not really true. Have a look at the temperature for Yakutsk (Siberia) for the next 10 days.