Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

[Purga]

GFS 12z ens are trending colder than 06z

                  06z                                                                               12z

       

[alexisj9]

17 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Classic Bartlet High on the ECM +240, Paul would be proud of that one  

Nothing is ever set in stone but it's a long way back from some of tonight's output in the medium term and what is that I hear in the background......a ticking clock

Andy

There enough changes for the better well before whatever happens after Friday. Things can and will change in day ten or so range.

[Northern Sky]

27 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Classic Bartlet High on the ECM +240, Paul would be proud of that one  

Nothing is ever set in stone but it's a long way back from some of tonight's output in the medium term and what is that I hear in the background......a ticking clock

Andy

Please correct me if I'm wrong but that looks like a Euro high to me rather than a Bartlett High? It looks too far north, meaning the UK is under the influence of high pressure and relatively cool temps if you look at the 2m charts. 

A true Bartlett is further south so directing mild and wet SW winds over the UK. 

[johncam]

2 minutes ago, Northern Sky said:

Please correct me if I'm wrong but that looks like a Euro high to me rather than a Bartlett High? It looks too far north, meaning the UK is under the influence of high pressure and relatively cool temps if you look at the 2m charts. 

A true Bartlett is further south so directing mild and wet SW winds over the UK. 

The UK isn't all under the full influence of the high just the south , up here its sw winds and drizzly muck 

[feb1991blizzard]

Eps 12z a deeper trough in the Atlantic nearer uk than 0z by D15 - no real news apart from that - control does have some amplification to our East by D15. last sneek peek from me - my bank declined the transaction, went into see them Saturday & they said you cant have repeat payments  or International transactions so they must have just gave me the 3 day trial which ends tomorrow.

[ANYWEATHER]

The Met office have issued Ice Warnings for the next few days..Can't believe they have done that, it's only January

[northwestsnow]

16 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Eps 12z a deeper trough in the Atlantic nearer uk than 0z by D15 - no real news apart from that - control does have some amplification to our East by D15. last sneek peek from me - my bank declined the transaction, went into see them Saturday & they said you cant have repeat payments  or International transactions so they must have just gave me the 3 day trial which ends tomorrow.

Don't like the sound of that.

[Johnp]

1 hour ago, Penrith Snow said:

Classic Bartlet High on the ECM +240, Paul would be proud of that one  

Nothing is ever set in stone but it's a long way back from some of tonight's output in the medium term and what is that I hear in the background......a ticking clock

Andy

Come on - it could turn cold within 72hrs of that chart, the high will ridge north westwards imo. 

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Don't like the sound of that.

its cause i have a basic account - nothing sinister - a bit petty really - only wanted a months subscription ($27) but because you have to cancel manually.......    the bit about international transactions is stupid though - weatherbell a big respected US company.

Edited January 15, 2023 by feb1991blizzard

[Johnp]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

its cause i have a basic account - nothing sinister - a bit petty really - only wanted a months subscription ($27) but because you have to cancel manually.......    the bit about international transactions is stupid - weatherbell a big respected US company.

I think he was talking about the deeper atlantic trough

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, Johnp said:

I think he was talking about the deeper atlantic trough

its more a stronger anomaly really, haven't got used to the charts in short space of time & might be better long term with WAA into pole, probably just natural run to run variation & nothing to worry about.

Edited January 15, 2023 by feb1991blizzard

[feb1991blizzard]

things still tickety boo up top.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

Interesting correction north vs METO latest forecast for 1900

It’s not cold enough for snow for the majority especially with the warm front ahead of the system. 
 

Even the tops of the hills above 250m might only get backend sleet and slush.

896575DF-01CF-4D19-9B55-3B2C02653FA2.webp

[mountain shadow]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

things still tickety boo up top.

Is this getting any closer?

What is the trigger date?

Thanks

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Hey folks what have I missed.. my head ain't been in the game just lately. 

There is some snow too look forward to in the coming days and some very icy nights thrown in..so perhaps some of you who ain't seen snow will finally get your wish!

Hey its not even February just yet...so I reckon game on.

And I would just like to add..most of you are aware that my Dad is ill and i have an 18 year old daughter who we havnt seen since she was 8..well my Dad crys most days over it...as do I.

Well this evening she as finally made contact with me...and after giving me a hard time via messaging is now having a laugh with me.

Seriously folks I could cry I really could.

Never give in folks..no matter what.

[starstream]

1 minute ago, MATT TATTOO said:

Hey folks what have I missed.. my head ain't been in the game just lately. 

There is some snow too look forward to in the coming days and some very icy nights thrown in..so perhaps some of you who ain't seen snow will finally get your wish!

Hey its not even February just yet...so I reckon game on.

And I would just like to add..most of you are aware that my Dad is ill and i have an 18 year old daughter who we havnt seen since she was 8..well my Dad crys most days over it...as do I.

Well this evening she as finally made contact with me...and after giving me a hard time via messaging is now having a laugh with me.

Seriously folks I could cry I really could.

Never give in folks..no matter what.

Much love Matt, good for you xxx 

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Is this getting any closer?

What is the trigger date?

Thanks

Yes its getting closer, the trigger date if you mean when we are going to start seeing imprint on trop and powerhouse Northerlies in the output then no one knows yet, thats all assuming it does imprint of course, i would rather let someone more qualified Provide a more confident Feb forecast but i will stick my neck out and say that strat chart will verify, its stable, has overwhelming support and is very slowly ticking down, I am confident of something substantial re cold in Feb but may be a patient wait, reason i am confident is apart from strat, every time the trop vortex has located to Greenland and strengthened, it just doesn't seem to want to stay there or maintain its strength this winter so its a double whammy, the main risk of a rubbish rest of winter IMO as has been pointed out is a risk of relocation of strat and trop vortices clashing, ie- relocating just at the wrong time and an imprint occurring just at the wrong time.

[Rain All Night]

Here is a fun chart on the ECMWF website made from EPS data that you can use to torment yourself over your snow chances:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/opencharts_ptype_meteogram

[alexisj9]

2 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

Here is a fun chart on the ECMWF website made from EPS data that you can use to torment yourself over your snow chances:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/opencharts_ptype_meteogram

So from that at best sleet tomorrow, where's the chart for?

[Rain All Night]

9 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

So from that at best sleet tomorrow, where's the chart for?

My backyard, if you follow the link you can put in your own location and see your own chances!

[feb1991blizzard]

nice streamer on 18z GFS.

Edited January 15, 2023 by feb1991blizzard

[jellybaby1969]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

nice streamer on 18z GFS.

Amazing to forecast a streamer 3 days out............

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

It’s down to 1c here where I am, and falling.  Going to get interesting early a.m.   I think there’s big potential for heavy snow coming

BFTP

[Ali1977]

colder air hanging on for Friday as the front approaches, possibly a snow to rain event - they aren’t the best though

[Allseasons-Si]

37 minutes ago, MATT TATTOO said:

Hey folks what have I missed.. my head ain't been in the game just lately. 

There is some snow too look forward to in the coming days and some very icy nights thrown in..so perhaps some of you who ain't seen snow will finally get your wish!

Hey its not even February just yet...so I reckon game on.

And I would just like to add..most of you are aware that my Dad is ill and i have an 18 year old daughter who we havnt seen since she was 8..well my Dad crys most days over it...as do I.

Well this evening she as finally made contact with me...and after giving me a hard time via messaging is now having a laugh with me.

Seriously folks I could cry I really could.

Never give in folks..no matter what.

I sheaded a tear reading this,...a family reunion and i am so so happy for you,...i hope your Dad is OK 

20 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

Here is a fun chart on the ECMWF website made from EPS data that you can use to torment yourself over your snow chances:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/opencharts_ptype_meteogram

thanks for this link although they are prediction graphs obviously and will be interesting if they are anywhere near the mark,so i have three chances of seeing snow fall according to this graph,tomorrow morning,Wednesday and it looks like a snow-rain event Thu/Fri

as for the models,...i do like the butterfly on the latest ECM control