Model Output Discussion - Into February

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Hey folks I'm feeling a tad balmy today..could be the SSW..could be the new meds..I ain't sure yet.

Remember Little Britain?

Look into my eyes look into my eyes..not around the eyes but into the eyes...3..2....1 your under. Today there's been a major warming event High up in the strat that promises to bring a bite of Winter in a week or so time...you will quickly be waking up to charts from gfs ukmo and ecm showing relentless blocking and snow showers moving in from the East...ice days could occur and severe night time frosts are likely..your gonna believe this theory everyday now until the said events countdown.

3-2-1 your back in the room.

Now breath

Edited February 16, 2023 by MATT TATTOO

[nick sussex]

Zzzzzzzz! 

Dear me this is turgid . The ECM delivers a long winded saga less exciting than Midsomer Murders ! 

Indeed I think a WI bake sale would be more interesting as the bitter recriminations of an over cooked Victoria Sponge sent shockwaves throughout the cooking fraternity!

Edited February 16, 2023 by nick sussex

[snowray]

I am without words.....

Oh well, we still have the pub run to look forward to and some possible eye candy, just hoping its had a lot to drink tonight.

[Mucka]

Well, at least ECM is sticking to its guns. 

In a way it does actually make things more interesting knowing the outcome is still fluid to some extent.

 

[Met4Cast]

Given how we were constantly told not to rule the GFS out a few weeks ago when it was the only model showing cold, I presume the same is true of the ECM now it’s the model not showing cold?

[Mucka]

There is always JMA chaps and chapesses

[lassie23]

Models are still working things out, it will all change tomorrow I bet. Prepare for further ups and downs. If it's utter tosh output by the 24th of February, then utter tosh is what we will probably get.

[Stuie]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

Given how we were constantly told not to rule the GFS out a few weeks ago when it was the only model showing cold, I presume the same is true of the ECM now it’s the model not showing cold?

Slight difference, GFS was battered, ECM gets a raised eyebrow. You have the performance charts, think you have answered your own question.

[Spah1]

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Given how we were constantly told not to rule the GFS out a few weeks ago when it was the only model showing cold, I presume the same is true of the ECM now it’s the model not showing cold?

eh? You were told to rule it out because it’s useless. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

what an absolutely strange run from ECM...a real mess

Edited February 16, 2023 by Lukesluckybunch
spelling

[Gowon]

5 minutes ago, Mucka said:

There is always JMA chaps and chapesses

JMA delivers another NE..  

There's too much uncertainty in the models atm for the end of next week - I think we should reserve judgement for now.

 

Edited February 16, 2023 by Gowon

[Gowon]

14 minutes ago, snowray said:

I am without words.....

Oh well, we still have the pub run to look forward to and some possible eye candy, just hoping its had a lot to drink tonight.

I kinda like the day 10 chart from ECM - that high could migrate north , forcing the trough down it's eastern flank?

[ANYWEATHER]

If anyone wants a free towel , Ive got loads ......

[Tills]

4 hours ago, s4lancia said:

Irrespective of to what degree different people understand charts, teleconnections, background signals etc, the same problem resides in this forum.

There are those who only seem to look at charts at face value. i.e... a set of 4 x daily GEFS plot, which are showing nothing particularly spectacular on the horizon. And there are those who are willing to open their minds to what is going on upstream

 

As a newcomer to this thread I would observe that one of the problems seems to reside in a disconnect between what people want to see and what the models are actually showing. 

As a lover of skiing all over the world I know for a fact that our climate has changed in the past 20 years. The setups which we once took for granted are now rarer than a hen's teeth. That's another driver amongst many that we now need to factor in to our model watching. Not just how brilliant upstream signals may seem.

xx

Edited February 16, 2023 by Tills

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Chief mediator here folks.

We need to keep very cool heads in the days ahead. The models ain't gonna be even close to working out what's going on High above at this precise moment in time. We really need to be seeing the models catering what's going on now into there outputs within a week or so! It's far to early for 10 day output to be showing us narnia sypnotics right now! And many of you already know this..you've wrote the book and got the t shirt to show for it.

Anyone talking of towel throwing at this very point in time are simply...not clued up in what's going on,or looking for a rise! Don't entertain them...simply use the ignore facility! 

There's a lot to be enthusiastic about in the days ahead and the models are gonna be scratching there heads and having sleepless nights for many many days to come.

Edited February 16, 2023 by MATT TATTOO

[Spah1]

Need to wait until around 25th Feb I’d say to see what the first week of March looks like. If there’s nothing of interest by then it would be disappointing. 

[Stuie]

6 minutes ago, MATT TATTOO said:

Chief mediator here folks.

We need to keep very cool heads in the days ahead. The models ain't gonna be even close to working out what's going on High above at this precise moment in time. We really need to be seeing the models catering what's going on now into there outputs within a week or so! It's far to early for 10 day output to be showing us narnia sypnotics right now! And many of you already know this..you've wrote the book and got the t shirt to show for it.

Anyone talking of towel throwing at this very point in time are simply...not clued up in what's going on,or looking for a rise! Don't entertain them...simply use the ignore facility! 

There's a lot to be enthusiastic about in the days ahead and the models are gonna be scratching there heads and having sleepless nights for many many days to come.

Never knew there was that function, thanks for pointing out.

[SLEETY]

ECM 12Z  mild outlier alert, isnt it always

Edited February 16, 2023 by SLEETY

[feb1991blizzard]

[northwestsnow]

EC 46 looks good second week of March onwards..

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC 46 looks good second week of March onwards..

i'm a little disappointed that real stonker (the chart i posted) isn't until into week 3 of march at least - the anoms in all the right places on that one.

Edited February 16, 2023 by feb1991blizzard

[Stuie]

Quite many dismiss the AO and NAO forecast on here stating it`s just an ensemble watch.

It has been pretty much spot on for me, the US has not been battered like it normally does and the plunge they did have was modelled.

I am really on the fence and out of my comfort zone but there is some chaos going on, more so on the AO. The NAO is having a good go at going negative also. 

There is signals, take them with a pinch of salt.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

imo the models have this right.  The mjo is a passing signal. The SSW is major and not likely to impose itself until end of 1st week in March…..then as Feb1991 says….date record cold challenging weather in the offing.  I’m anticipating a lot of great golf weather late Feb/early March.   See you after that…..landing date about 10th March…with ‘set up’ in place before then

 

BFTP

Edited February 16, 2023 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[northwestsnow]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

i'm a little disappointed that real stonker (the chart i posted) isn't until into week 3 at least - the anoms in all the right places on that one.

Yes looks cold and wintry , I've stated its not my cup of tea by mid March but I appreciate some guys will take it..

[ICE COLD]

Not that it matters much but the ECM op was on one tonight . Clear outlier. Here’s to a record breaking cold March (hopefully) .