Model Output Discussion - Into February

[Kieran1960]

Loving the warmer end to the gfs run! Hoping that it does continue a milder trend, who needs cold anyway!

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Kieran1960 said:

Loving the warmer end to the gfs run! Hoping that it does continue a milder trend, who needs cold anyway!

Oh dear you haven’t quite worked out how things work in here ! 

That sort of post is liable to have you become person non grata ! 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Kieran1960 said:

Loving the warmer end to the gfs run! Hoping that it does continue a milder trend, who needs cold anyway!

yes welcome 'warm' March 2023.

[alexisj9]

16 minutes ago, Kieran1960 said:

Loving the warmer end to the gfs run! Hoping that it does continue a milder trend, who needs cold anyway!

The mean on the other hand is colder than it was. This is a west based run, just shows what could go wrong, in your case right, I suppose. We do need the rain I suppose that will accompany this warmth. So although missing out on snow would probably annoy me, I wouldn't mind to much.

[nick sussex]

A further westwards correction with the ECM 18hrs run at T90 hrs pulling the cold pool with it .

The high has a better shape and it needs to ridge ne as much as possible .

 

[Nick2373]

4 hours ago, Kieran1960 said:

Loving the warmer end to the gfs run! Hoping that it does continue a milder trend, who needs cold anyway!

One of two possibility's 1. Your looking for a reaction 2. your still learning the models hopefully Num 2, Anyway onward with the 18z a pattern emerging for something cooler from the 25th onwards  and looks like the trend for something colder around the 5th of March is still there. Yes the 5th is days away in forecasting but still the trend remains which is what we want to see. 

[DavidS]

Nice evolution on the GEM this morning and by day 10 we have this

 

[DavidS]

GFS west based horror show

[Ali1977]

Mmm, let’s hope the GFS control and ens don’t follow the op. The GEM however is excellent . Day 10s below 

Edited February 22, 2023 by Ali1977

[Chesil View]

Rather like yesterday the overnight gfs ops show how it can go wrong for us here in the UK with main thrust of cold draining past us to the west and low pressure sneaking in on a realigned sw ne jet. 

We are still a long way from the final pattern being resolved.   Hopefully in our favour.

[Ali1977]

The mean at day 10 is superb, and definitely not west as per the op and if anything slughtly east of the last run. Let’s hope for a great ECM at day 10. So far it’s game on still.

[snowsummer]

43 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:

One of two possibility's 1. Your looking for a reaction 2. your still learning the models hopefully Num 2, 

You forgot option 3. There was something on one of the models showing warmer at the end. So he was commenting on what the models show. Always best to be nice to newcomers dont you think? 

[andymusic]

Model runs at the moment seem a tad on the warm side so not showing totally the catastrophic charts we were seeing previously, GFS has a bit of a west based NAO nset up also - missing the UK a bit - I still think there's a nasty sting in the tail in the winter of 2022/2023 to come yet through March - just think the models are playing around with a number of ideas but the way forward is just a little foggy - All will become clear very shortly with freezing weather and dumpings of snow I'm 99% sure of that - The SSW effects - two of them no less - means two weather bombs of massive proportions - so if this don't kick the system into a major reversal and freezing cold/snow - then I don't know what will - ANDY OUT - 

[Ali1977]

Day 12 mean still good but far too many options to glean much from it. FI is still relatively early and we do need a good ECM and EC ENS

[KTtom]

5 hours ago, Kieran1960 said:

Loving the warmer end to the gfs run! Hoping that it does continue a milder trend, who needs cold anyway!

Youll like the 00z even more! Could be quite a battle ground somewhere should this scenario come off!

[Nick F]

Wouldn't worry too much about the west-based NAO from GFS for now. Seems a bit far-fetched to expect GFS of all models, given its poor handling since the new year, e.g. the phantom deep cold easterly,  to have a handle on evolution in early March with the uncertainties of strat-trop coupling involved. Stick with EC.

Upgrade for the far SE early next week with the easterly on UKMO, -1OC T850s into Kent and E Sussex.

Edited February 22, 2023 by Nick F

[Ali1977]

ECM and GEM look very similar at T168 - this is good news 

 

I think we can ignore the GFS Op noting what it had at T168.

 

ECM still looking good at 192 - let’s hope at 216 it’s primed and has some wiggle room

Running commentary sorry

 

A little BOOOM here, it’s looking awesome at 216  

GAME ON 

Edited February 22, 2023 by Ali1977

[Lukesluckybunch]

8 hours ago, MP-R said:

 

ECM you naughty boy

[Ali1977]

Humongous upgrade at day 10 way off any west based. Get in, perfect alignment , let’s hope full support  with the ENS 

Edited February 22, 2023 by Ali1977

[Nick F]

No concerns from the 00z EC days 9-10, monster MAR up to Greenland preventing any low pressure moving east over the Atlantic trying to phase with low pressure to our NE and leading to west-based -NAO like GFS.

Edited February 22, 2023 by Nick F

[Chesil View]

Nice steady evolution from the ECM as Nick F has intimated strong MAR up into Greenland and steady as she goes transference of the Trop pv over the top into Russia and Scandi.

Mid term upgrade on the Ukmo as well.

[Ali1977]

JMA is worth a mention too

[alexisj9]

36 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

ECM and GEM look very similar at T168 - this is good news 

 

I think we can ignore the GFS Op noting what it had at T168.

 

ECM still looking good at 192 - let’s hope at 216 it’s primed and has some wiggle room

Running commentary sorry

 

A little BOOOM here, it’s looking awesome at 216  

GAME ON 

You probably find GFS is over doing a low somewhere, which is sending the high further west.

[andymusic]

38 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Humongous upgrade at day 10 way off any west based. Get in, perfect alignment , let’s hope full support  with the ENS 

Yes much better set up and not west based NAO - BRILLIANT!

23 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

JMA is worth a mention too

THAT Looks Fabulous - WOW!

[cyclonic happiness]

Does anything ever get any nearer than day 10?   :-p