Model Output Discussion - Into February

[lassie23]

I think too much is happening at the moment and the weather models are ready to explode, it would be good if they did,  then we can take each day at a time and look through the window at developments instead.

 

[Allseasons-Si]

A quick one tonight,...yes i am still here but been busy trying to get another car

still in the game i would say....

[StingJet]

13 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

I think too much is happening at the moment and the weather models are ready to explode, it would be good if they did,  then we can take each day at a time and look through the window at developments instead.

 

The Ops are a proper cluster f**k atm ,  we are however on the cusp of a "reliable" (if such a word exists in meteorology) time frame from the MetO,  it will be an interesting model watch through the course of next week, looking for some form of cross model agreement from the big 3 Ops within the T168 time frame

Edited February 26, 2023 by StingJet

[PiscesStar]

The overnight runs aren't as good so hoping for better as the day progresses... Any thoughts woukd be welcome bearing in mind it's. Just 'one run'?? 

Edited February 26, 2023 by PiscesStar

[Mucka]

UKMO 00z looks great at 144h

GFS is trundling out and at 120h, doesn't look great so far.

I'd rather have UKMO on board than GFS though

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

UKMO 00z looks great at 144h

GFS is trundling out and at 120h, doesn't look great so far.

I'd rather have UKMO on board than GFS though

UKMO 144 would have me ramping if it was a month earlier!!

Looks a cracker 

[Mucka]

GFS is almost an exact repeat of the 18z Op all the way out to 144. Almost as if it is using the exact same data. 

00z/18z

I wouldn't trust that TBH. GEM out 120h is an improvement over last night.

GEM 144 big improvement, not quite UKMO but pretty good.

Edited February 26, 2023 by Mucka

[Battleground Snow]

26 minutes ago, Mucka said:

UKMO 00z looks great at 144h

GFS is trundling out and at 120h, doesn't look great so far.

I'd rather have UKMO on board than GFS though

Awesome 168 chart, I said yesterday to watch ukmo and ecm at 144-168, 

ECM coming up shortly will be intriguing.

[northwestsnow]

UKMO 168 is very good

[Mucka]

UKMO 168 very consistent with yesterdays 12z, not uncanny valley similar like GFS, but quite similar.

The block is marginally further W, we need it to get further W yet to really open the flood gates.

Edited February 26, 2023 by Mucka

[Mike Poole]

All 3 at T168:

Hope UKMO has got this!  GEM looks close although it collapses later, and GFS repeats its 18z fail.

[Mucka]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

All 3 at T168:

Hope UKMO has got this!  GEM looks close although it collapses later, and GFS repeats its 18z fail.

Reminds me of that old Sesame Street song.

One of these things is not like the other, one of these things just isn't the same. Can you guess which one it is?

[andymusic]

4 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

A quick one tonight,...yes i am still here but been busy trying to get another car

still in the game i would say....

Make sure the new car is a 4x4 with mega winter tyres on for the weather we are about to go through

[andymusic]

2 hours ago, PiscesStar said:

The overnight runs aren't as good so hoping for better as the day progresses... Any thoughts woukd be welcome bearing in mind it's. Just 'one run'?? 

Hold in there - models are at six's and seven's - short Fi so longer term the ssw effects are gonna have a massive effect and the freezing cold and snow will get to the UK through March and into April - I have no doubt!

[EML Network]

ECM + 120 too hard to call, could go either way and GFS for comparison. ECM looking a tad better upstream maybe and high isnt throwing out an arm in Scandi.

If the High over the UK didn't extend so far to the South West of the UK it might allow those systems coiming out of Newfoundland to dig underneath..thats where all of this is going wrong in my opinion, becsuse if it does it pulls that cold air to the NE towards it...links up with it forces the high further to the north...props it up.

 

instead result is everything misses to the East and that High eventually sinks and the Atlantic pushes everything out of play for another week thereafter at least

Edited February 26, 2023 by EML Network

[Battleground Snow]

Ukmo v ecm at 144.

Not too far away but ukmo is better.

I think 168 will just be a little too far east with the cold plunge on ecm

Edited February 26, 2023 by Battleground Snow

[That ECM]

See where we are in the morning? 
 

T144 all 3. Still heading in a interesting direction.

[Ali1977]

All at 168 

JMA, GEM, UKMO, GFS and ECM - pretty good apart from the GFS. 
 

The ECM is closest to the UKMO which looks the best, so let’s see what 192 holds.

 

Not too bad, hopefully a good starting point for some improvements later. aI think the UKMO would be better as it makes less of that LP around Newfoundland to the MAR May strengthen rather than be forced East 

Edited February 26, 2023 by Ali1977

[KTtom]

ECM very similar to yesterday, cold high to the north, Atlantic low threatening..

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO 144 would have me ramping if it was a month earlier!!

Looks a cracker 

It looks good for Norway, Sweden and Finland!  

[Lukesluckybunch]

UKMO 168 easily the best chart of the morning.as it was yesterday also..lets hope the others follow this now and we start to get some consistency...ECM is ok but could be far better

Edited February 26, 2023 by Lukesluckybunch
spelling

[seabreeze86]

Still huge scatter around the 4/5 of March on the GFS and GEM

Hopefully the MOGREPS follows the UKMO 

[IDO]

The trend continues as the models dampen the Greenland heights to more of a wedge and the high sinking for the pattern to relax. The GEFS are poor with no real cold for the south:

...and the trend for rising temps in FI (2m).

The early modelling was seemingly based on the algorithm assumptions of the MJO or SSW, but more recent input data is correcting that modelling.

The ECM:

...shows the trough dropping to our east which was always a relevant cluster. UKMO D7 charts are a simile to D10 ECM charts, and I would not hang my hat on them. THE GEM is the same as the ECM. GFS is not dissimilar in synoptic, just a variation on the theme.

Looking at the GEFS mean, I see no apparent imprint from downwelling, just the tPV and the usual signals dictating the NH profile. The mean suggests that the tPV will begin to cycle back to our NW as we move towards mid-March:

That will drive a westerly flow in our latitude.

We wait to see if the second downwelling can breach this underlying La Nina background cycle of UK high intermittent with westerly push as the tPV cycles to our north.

 

 

Edited February 26, 2023 by IDO
removed irrelevant chart

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, seabreeze86 said:

Still huge scatter around the 4/5 of March on the GFS and GEM

Hopefully the MOGREPS follows the UKMO 

the bottom chart the mean is pretty decent..and lot cold members there too!

[MattH]

2 minutes ago, IDO said:

The trend continues as the models dampen the Greenland heights to more of a wedge and the high sinking for the pattern to relax. The GEFS are poor with no real cold for the south:

...and the trend for rising temps in FI (2m).

The early modelling was seemingly based on the algorithm assumptions of the MJO or SSW, but more recent input data is correcting that modelling.

The ECM:

...shows the trough dropping to our east which was always a relevant cluster. UKMO D7 charts are a simile to D10 ECM charts, and I would not hang my hat on them. THE GEM is the same as the ECM. GFS is not dissimilar in synoptic, just a variation on the theme.

Looking at the GEFS mean, I see no apparent imprint from downwelling, just the tPV and the usual signals dictating the NH profile. The mean suggests that the tPV will begin to cycle back to our NW as we move towards mid-March:

That will drive a westerly flow in our latitude.

We wait to see if the second downwelling can breach this underlying La Nina background cycle of UK high intermittent with westerly push as the tPV cycles to our north.

 

A quick post on this as the second part of this is very misleading to people trying to learn or look at the outlook...

There IS evidence for the strat to imprint on the trop looking ahead, the 00Z EC Det once again shows that. Using the GEFS mean as a foundation to highlight that there is no evidence for a strat to trop imprint just isn't realistic at all. You're also leaving out that if you do want to use ENS that the EC ENS from the last 24 hours doesn't return the main tPV to Canada either.

Use ENS plots and means days out at your peril in times like the present.

Cheers, Matt.