Model Output Discussion - Into February

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, Mcconnor8 said:

To be expected unless we get -15 or lower 850s, with sun strength getting ice days in March will be difficult

so you think -8 uppers would give us temps of  5/6c?

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

as good as the 12z is...the actual 2m temps in later period are not that cold..couple of days are very cold thats about it

Getting towards mid March so expected - need some good snow cover and cloud cover to keep them towards 0-3c !! 

[Snowman.]

3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

as good as the 12z is...the actual 2m temps in later period are not that cold..couple of days are very cold thats about it

Where cloud is forecast over snow you will get sub 0 temps. 
 

March 2018 taught me that. Hell even March 2013 which had its event at mid March had the same outcome with uppers of -10 to -12. Heavy lines of snow showers will keep you in the game for some lasting snow

[NewEra21]

4 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

so you think -8 uppers would give us temps of  5/6c?

I mean -8 uppers have given us 7-8c in the SE this weekend.

[Garthvader]

44 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

 

Should please the NW contingent.

 

Bank!

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, NewEra21 said:

I mean -8 uppers have given us 7-8c in the SE this weekend.

ok on that basis somthing like -10 uppers would probably guarantee us snow?

[Neilsouth]

1 minute ago, NewEra21 said:

I mean -8 uppers have given us 7-8c in the SE this weekend.

And we've also had Hail which turned to Snow! In fact if it was a constant stream of showers, we'd actually have snow on the ground. -8 uppers arn't too bad actually, although -10 would be preffered 

[Wingman Blue]

1 minute ago, Neilsouth said:

And we've also had Hail which turned to Snow! In fact if it was a constant stream of showers, we'd actually have snow on the ground. -8 uppers arn't too bad actually, although -10 would be preffered 

Snow+continued cloud cover = cold

Snow+Clear Skies = melt

[NewEra21]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

ok on that basis somthing like -10 uppers would probably guarantee us snow?

In March you would definitely prefer-10 uppers to counter the growing strength of the sun etc.

It can obviously still snow without -10 uppers, but -10 and below will make it easier for snow to stick around.

[dryfie]

55 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

 

Should please the NW contingent.

 

NW is good,especially Caithness, but Highlands (predictably) even better.  Best of all is the midlands M62 traverse Manc to Leeds.

[Cambrian]

Looks like it might be one of those rarer occasions when we’re observing westward corrections. Yesterday’s 12z day 7 vs. today’s 12z day 6 charts.

UKMO

 

GFS op

 

The GFS op has clearly come a long way, but for both : Heights to our west now further west. Lower pressure further west over western Norway - around 10mb lower for UKMO, 15mb for GFS.

Much more agreement on the western Atlantic trough staying intact but being narrower, leaves a better gap for the northwestward retrogression of the UK and Ireland heights towards Greenland, it’s like it’s saying loud and clear - “make a hole”!

The reorientation of the PV is also happening a tad faster too - that nub of PV to the north of Svalbard (keep a close eye on that!) is further south on today’s charts for next Saturday than on those from yesterday. That little nub is a snowmaker by day 12 on the 12z GFS op. 

 

Edited February 26, 2023 by Cambrian

[Purga]

A lot of uncertainty but at least the Op & Control appear to be converging towards a colder end run. A lot of GEFS go mild though.

Edited February 26, 2023 by Purga

[BlueHedgehog074]

The erratic nature of the models is perhaps foreseeable at the moment due to various stuff they gotta straighten out. Sometimes throwing the chilly weather enthusiasts into the dreams of cold and snowy heaven. And sometimes into the horror of the snowless abyss.

Former, though, appears true from both GFS and ICON this afternoon as they bring the Beast back… from the North! (Something that did seem a real possibility and something that could still happen). With the case of Northern blocking, as longs as it fends away all the wicked forces that could knock it out, or scare the block away into Europe or too far North and West, Beasts from the East could come to the cold fans’ parties as well. 

While some will be longing for warmth, and others longing for a bite in the tail of Winter, any shipshape Northerlies/Easterlies better not take an old faulty slow boat towards the UK, otherwise it might sink before it gets here. An easy thing to happen with cold and snowy spells sometimes. ️

[NewEra21]

It has to be said it's not a great set of ensembles once again. Although most members do dip around the 4th of March, so maybe something to build from there.

 

[Ali1977]

If the ops are only just getting to grasp of the situation, further upgrades are just as possible as downgrades - and baring mind what’s going on upgrades are more likely. Hoping for a unreal ECM

Edited February 26, 2023 by Ali1977

[nick sussex]

14 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

It has to be said it's not a great set of ensembles once again. Although most members do dip around the 4th of March, so maybe something to build from there.

 

If we’re seeing a QTR then the ensembles with less vertical levels might take longer to get a handle on the strat to trop downwelling .

[Ali1977]

Big 3 at 120 - ECM looks great to there , with the weakest trough around Canada 

Edited February 26, 2023 by Ali1977

[EML Network]

ECM Looks like it's heading a similar way to GFS / UKMO +120, but more of a half way house, between the two.. seems to be the crux time for all of this and it's from this point really that it could go any number of ways. but it's good to have all 3 models headed in the same direction...

Disappointed with the GFS 12Z Suite though, was expecting to see far more runs below -10 @850 

Edited February 26, 2023 by EML Network

[Mark wheeler]

Navgem 12z

[Ali1977]

144

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

144

Could be slightly better ali..but expecting a better 168..perhaps a cut off high?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

plenty to play out yet.  The real quick responses to individual runs to say the cold chances are shot are way too premature as UKMO, ICON and GFS are pointing out.  And ECM if folk read the hemispheric movement right it still points to real cold still being very much in the mix.   Seasoned campaigners have said wait until during the week to see if it’s on or not.  Looks like it’s still currently on for cold….and truth is it hadn’t disappeared.  Enjoy the developments….ECM will still be ‘onside’

 

BFTP

 

Edited February 26, 2023 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Stuie]

Yesterdays ECM 12z vs todays for March 4. 

 

If we dare going another day...

[Ali1977]

Boom for that robust block 

[Mike Poole]

ECM T168:

And look what is left of that ‘dartboard’ low that was causing so much angst yesterday and this morning!

Can’t say we’re home and dry, but we certainly live to fight until the next drama!

Edited February 26, 2023 by Mike Poole