March 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

Most of the significant changes in v2.0 are in certain periods of the past rather than recent, we cannot know of course what the legacy CET would have been in the nearly eleven months since they dropped it, but for 2019 to (Apr) 2022 the changes were all rather minor. A lot of days were increased by 0.1 in those recent years. Other intervals show different results. I buy the idea of changing to make the record more homogeneous, answering the question "what should past CET be if we used the same stations and procedures as today?" That is the underlying foundation of the changes they made in all time periods, whether you agree with the results or not. I don't feel I am in a very good position to judge the changes, but one obvious set around 2004-05 involved a re-assessment of one of three stations used and they seemed to go for the idea that the record had been running too cold there. I also found there are bigger changes well back into the past, notably around the 1910s and 1920s decades, than in more recent decades. A lot of the 1960s and 1970s were either untouched or reduced very slightly. And we now have actual data for Dec 1786 so there's one improvement. 

[Summer Sun]

6.6c to the 28th

0.9c above the 61 to 90 average
0.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[Scorcher]

Much milder again until the end of the month now. 6.8/6.9C finish perhaps?

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Looks like a super wet finish to March!

[Roger J Smith]

Very wet across the south at least, I think the EWP was at about 110 mm as of 12z earlier today and the 12z GFS suggests a grid average of 20-25 mm with 50 mm in parts of the southwest (some of that has already fallen since 12z). That would get the EWP into the 130s and a run at third place which is currently March 1818 at 134.7 mm. The top two (1947 177.5 and 1981 160.4) are probably out of reach. 

[Roger J Smith]

Updated EWP scoring report _ Dec 2022 to Mar 2023

The points totals are confirmed, average errors are now also final from the posted table value (5 Apr) of 136.8 mm. The large errors for March have led to ranks being somewhat distorted by whether or not a value includes a March error. This will likely disappear as a distortion factor when qualifiers enter more months and non-qualifiers drop out due to infrequent entries. Ranks are now given to all who have entered two or more of the four months, but that will change to a minimum of three after April. Eventually nine of twelve will be the minimum for an average error ranking. 

The scores and ranks for March are indicated.

 

RANK _ FORECASTER _ POINTS ___ AVG ERROR (rank) __ March result
 

1. February1978 ________ 32.21 ____ 29.53 (7) ______ 11th (77 mm)

2, Mulzy _________________ 31.59 ____ 26.88 (3) ______ 12th (76 mm)

3. prolongedSnowLover__29.99 ____ 25.85 (2) _____ 1st  (110 mm)

4, Leo97t ________________ 29.21 ____ 28.53 (6) _____ 3rd (90 mm first entry)

5. Emmett Garland ______ 28.15 ____ 33.38 (11) ___ 21st (69 mm)

6, snowray ______________ 27.41 ____ 32.53 (10) ____ 5th (88.5 mm)

7. bobd29 _______________ 27.26 ____ 31.85 (8) _____ 36th (59.5 mm)

8. cymro _________________26,11 ____ 36.43 (t17) ___ 44th (47 mm)

9. Stationary Front ______ 25.98 ____ 32.28 (9) _____ 2nd (92 mm)

10. jonboy _______________ 25.91 ____ 38.03 (23) ___ 16th (72 mm)

t11. Feb1991Blizzard ____ 25.78 ____ 36.13 (t14) ___25th (67 mm)

t11. Jeff C ________________ 25.78 ____ 36.88 (t17) ___15th (75 mm, 2nd ent 1d late)

13. virtualsphere ________ 25.64 ____ 38.28 (25) ____ 8th (82 mm)

14, Midlands Ice Age ____ 25.07 ____ 38.38 (26) ____ 20th (70 mm 3rd ent)

15. Dr(S)No ______________ 25.05 ____ 36.13 (t14) ___ 31st (65 mm)

16, Polar Gael ___________ 24.69 ____ 37,18 (19) ____ 9th (80.2 mm)

17. Reef _________________ 24.08 ____ 34.88 (12) ____ 14th (74 mm)

18. Norrance ____________ 23.76 ____ 37.53 (21) ____ 39th (58 mm 2nd ent)

19. DiagonalRedLine ____ 23.06 ____ 39.88 (29) ____ 35th (60 mm)

20. Godber1 ____________ 22.62 ____ 38.13 (24) ____ 7th (84 mm)

21. Don _________________ 22.31 ____ 35,38 (13) ____ 4th (90 mm 2nd ent)

22. freeze _______________ 22.23 ____ 39.63 (28) ____ 19th (70 mm 2nd ent)

23. seaside60 ___________ 22.04 ____ 44.63 (t37) ____ 46th (45 mm)

24. daniel* ______________ 21.69 ____ 41.03 (30) ____ 18th (70 mm)

25. J 10 __________________ 21.68 ____ 37.88 (22) ____ 24th (68 mm 2nd ent)

26. Roger J Smith _______ 20.65 ____ 39.23 (27) ____ 45th (45.8 mm)

27. Weather Observer __ 20.40 ____ 42.48 (32) ____ 43rd (48 mm)

28. noname_weather ___ 19.38 ____ 43.38 (33) ____ 34th (62 mm)

29. syed2878 ___________ 18.67 ____ 49.28 (46) ____ 6th (85 mm)

30. BlastFromThePast __ 18.63 ____ 44.13 (36) ____ 28th (70 mm, 3rd ent, 2d late)

31. summer8906 (3/4) __ 18.62*___ 24.43 ( 1) ____ no fcst

32. SteveB ______________ 17.98 ____ 42,13 (30) ____ 40th (57 mm)

33. Wold Topper ________ 17.97 ____ 44.53 (36) ____ 23rd (68 mm)

34. I Rem Atl 252 (3/4) __ 17.62 ____ 36.18 (16) ____ 13th (75 mm)

35. Methuselah (EdS) ___ 17.59 ____ 47,13 (41) ____ 42nd (55 mm)

36, Mapantz _____________17.06 ____ 45,88 (40) ____ 30th (66 mm, 2nd ent)

37. summer18 ___________17.04 ____ 43,63 (34) ____ 29th (66 mm)

38. rwtwm _______________16.89 ____ 47.88 (43) ____ 17th (72 mm, 2nd ent)

39. Thundery Wintry Sh _ 16.50*___ 27.07 ( 4) _____ no fcst (3/4 entered)

40. davehsug ____________ 15.71 ____ 44.63 (t37) ___ 37th (59 mm)

41. Summer Shower (3/4)_14.96 ____48.17 (44) ____26th (67 mm, 2nd ent)

42, Mr Maunder _________ 14.78 ____ 48.63 (45) ____ 27th (67 mm, 3rd ent)

43, SLEETY _______________14.39 ____ 47.28 (42) ____ 41st (56 mm)

44, dancerwithwings ____ 14.25 ____ 50.28 (49) ____ 47th (44 mm)

45, Let It Snow! (3/4) ____ 14.06 ____ 51.47 (50) ____ 33rd (62.6 mm)

46. summer blizzard ____ 13.96 ____ 49.53 (48) ____ 32nd (65 mm, 2nd ent)

47. Weather26 (3/4) _____ 13.57*___ 37.50 (20) ____ no fcst

48. Kirkcaldy Weather (3/4) _12.94__ 58.30 (53) ____ 22nd (68.8 mm)

49. Earthshine (3/4) ______ 12.17 ____ 49.37 (47) ____ 48th (40 mm)

50. shillitocettwo ________ 11.65 ____ 62.53 (56) ____ 55th (16 mm)

51. john 88b (2/4) _______ 11.56 ____ 27.10 ( 5) _____ no fcst

52. Frigid ________________ 11.28 ____ 57,38 (52) ____ 10th (80 mm)

53, stewfox (3/4) ________ 11.17 ____ 44.87 (39) ____ 38th (58 mm)

54. The PIT ______________ 11.07 ____ 56.28 (51) ____ 52nd (30 mm)

58. Moorlander ___________8.63 ____ 60.13 (55) ____ 54th (23 mm)

66. catbrainz (2/4) ________ 5.12 ____ 60.00 (54) ____ 53rd (28 mm)

76. Metwatch (3/4) _______ 2.63 ____ 77.77 (58) ____ 49th (37 mm)

79. chilly milly ____________ 2.11 ____ 79.95 (59) ____ 50th (35 mm)

80. Pegg24 (2/4) __________ 2.16 ____ 81.40 (60) ____ 51st (32 mm)

81. Neil N (3/4) ___________ 0.84 ____ 64.77 (57) ____ no fcst

____________________________________________

 5.6 __1981-2010 average _27.71 ___ 31.18 ( 5.7) ___ 71.5 mm

16.7 _consensus _________ 24.29 ___ 39.75 (28.5) ___ 67.0 mm

16.8 _1991-2020 average_ 24.25 ___ 33.13 (10.7) ___ 65.4 mm

17.9 _1993-2022 average_ 23.80 ___ 34.38 (11.9) ___ 63.6 mm

=================================

Our group consensus and the most recent averages are performing about the same after four months, 1981-2010 is doing a bit better than both, and also better than all but five actual forecasters. 

 

 

table only includes those who entered March, or who have 2/4 or more entries in other months. 

Edited April 5, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[Don]

21 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Much milder again until the end of the month now. 6.8/6.9C finish perhaps?

At least I would say and could breach 7.0C.

[Summer Sun]

6.7c to the 29th

1.1c above the 61 to 90 average
0.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[Summer8906]

16 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Very wet across the south at least, I think the EWP was at about 110 mm as of 12z earlier today and the 12z GFS suggests a grid average of 20-25 mm with 50 mm in parts of the southwest (some of that has already fallen since 12z). That would get the EWP into the 130s and a run at third place which is currently March 1818 at 134.7 mm. The top two (1947 177.5 and 1981 160.4) are probably out of reach. 

Nonetheless, the wettest since 1981 and second-wettest (or even wettest) of many people's lifetime is still remarkable.

 

Edited March 30, 2023 by Summer8906

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 6.5C +0.2C above normal. Rainfall 116.6mm  192.4% of the monthly average.

[Roger J Smith]

After 29 days, 6.7 (195.0/29 = 6.72), taking 13 as likely CET for today (max 17, min 9) and 9 (max 11, min 7) for 31st, overall finish would be exactly 7.0. (217.0/31). Should be 6.9 tomorrow with such a mild reading today, could stay on 6.9 if 31st fails to reach that average of 9.0. 

EWP looks to be past 125 mm already (109.0 to 28th, quite wet yesterday) and will finish 135-140 with tonight's expected downpours across the south. 

If that leaves Mar 2023 in third place (confirmed 5 Apr), here's a roundup of the wettest ranked months since start of the 2020s: 
 

JAN 2021 ranked 12th wettest

FEB 2020 ranked 1st 

MAR 2023 rank 3rd 

APR 2020 rank 59th driest (the other two were even drier)

MAY 2021 ranked 7th wettest

JUN 2020 ranked 39th

JUL 2021 ranked 92nd

AUG 2020 ranked 26th

SEP 2022 ranked 98th

OCT 2020 ranked 8th

NOV 2022 ranked 15th

DEC 2020 ranked 14th

... what this shows is that apart from April and the summer months, the decade so far has been prolific at producing wet months. 

 

 

 

Edited April 5, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[summer blizzard]

How does it look if we include 2010 as the marker given that we bring in 2012 and 2019.

[Roger J Smith]

Since 2012 looks the same as since 2010, 2009 is the first year before 2012 to improve the list, so either way (2012 or 2009) the list is ..

Jan 2014 wettest.

Feb 2020 wettest.

Mar 2023 3rd (confirmed 5 Apr).

Apr 2012 wettest.

May 2021 7th wettest.

June 2012 wettest.

July 2012 33rd wettest (2009 15th)

Aug 2020 26th wettest

Sep 2019 38th wettest

Oct 2020 8th wettest

Nov 2022 15th wettest (2009 5th)

Dec 2012 7th wettest

Going back to 2004 improves Aug to 5th wettest 2004. Going back to 2000 also improves Sep to 26th and Oct to 2nd. 

Before 2000 the first year that improves the list is 1981 (2nd wettest March), then 1976 (10th wettest Sep), 1974 (8th wettest Sep), and then 1967 adds 3rd wettest May).

Before 1967 the next year to improve the list is 1956 (4th wettest Aug), and 1947 adds wettest March.

So the post-1947 list looks like this:  

Jan 2014 wettest.

Feb 2020 wettest.

Mar 2023 wettest.

Apr 2012 wettest.

May 1967 4th wettest.

June 2012 wettest.

July 2009 15th wettest

Aug 1956 4th wettest

Sep 1974 8th wettest

Oct 2000 2nd wettest

Nov 2009 5th wettest

Dec 2012 7th wettest

The first improvement on that would take us back to 1940 for 3rd wettest November. Before that, it's 1934 for 5th wettest December, 1927 for 7th wettest September, 1918 for wettest September, 1917 for third wettest August, 1915 for fourth wettest December and then 1914 for second wettest December, 1912 for wettest August, 1903 for wettest October, and note we still have not seen any of the fourteen wettest months of July.

We first find one of those with fourth wettest July 1880. Soon after that going back we add wettest December 1876. At that point we have encountered all but these last entries: 

wettest Nov 1852, 2nd wettest July 1834, wettest July 1828, second wettest May 1782 and wettest May 1773. That is of course just seven years and five months into the EWP records. 

Worth noting that 2012 is third wettest year, and 2000 is fourth wettest. Only 1872 and 1768 were slightly wetter. Despite that, the wettest ranked month in 1872 was 14th wettest January, what did the business for 1872 was top 25 outings in all the wet months Oct to Dec as well as a 29th ranked July. The monthly ranks for 1768 are similar in being mostly moderately wet, the highest rank was third wettest June and then 13th February. 

Also interesting that more precip fell in March 1947 than in July to October combined that year. Despite that wet March the year ranked 60th driest out of 256. 

 

 

Edited April 5, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[The PIT]

For anyone interested have a look a Sunny Sheffield's rainfall.  Click on the driest and wettest tab.

Mean Monthly Rainfall 1955 - Onwards

WWW.SHEFFIELDWEATHER.CO.UK

 

[Weather26]

2 hours ago, The PIT said:

For anyone interested have a look a Sunny Sheffield's rainfall.  Click on the driest and wettest tab.

Mean Monthly Rainfall 1955 - Onwards

WWW.SHEFFIELDWEATHER.CO.UK

 

Well this month is definitely going top 5 possibly top 3 by the end of the day for Sheffield when today's rain is added. 

[Summer Sun]

6.9c to the 30th

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

[Froze were the Days]

How's Fred's close to record cold going for the month?

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

How's Fred's close to record cold going for the month?

Precisely the same way it goes every month! 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Looks like I’ve gone too low with the rainfall!!

[DR(S)NO]

21 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

How's Fred's close to record cold going for the month?

I thought this particular thread was all about predictions. I'm not sure it’s right to be calling someone out for doing so just cause it was wrong. 

Pretty sure each and every month there are many posters who are way out.

[Weather-history]

6 minutes ago, DR(S)NO said:

I thought this particular thread was all about predictions. I'm not sure it’s right to be calling someone out for doing so just cause it was wrong. 

Pretty sure each and every month there are many posters who are way out.

I think it was more to do with their forecast rather a CET value. They did bang the drum of the coldest second half of March for decades/a March to remember etc since the start of the year and kept banging it.

Edited March 31, 2023 by Weather-history

[Don]

48 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

6.9c to the 30th

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

7.0C here we come?  No getting away from the fact it's been a mild month overall.

[Froze were the Days]

25 minutes ago, DR(S)NO said:

I thought this particular thread was all about predictions. I'm not sure it’s right to be calling someone out for doing so just cause it was wrong. 

You obviously have no recollection of BFTP (Fred)?...he comes out with forecasts largely of the cold to very cold variety on the MOD thread and elsewhere and not just on this thread and has been doing so for years, lets say he is to forecasting cold weather what Berni Inn is to fine dining  

He does seem to not take it to heart so good on him but like a broken watch he'll get a forecast right sooner or later.

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Don said:

7.0C here we come?  No getting away from the fact it's been a mild month overall.

Mild against the 61-90 average, but very close to average if going against the more recent 81-10 average. There hasn't been any notably mild weather, just a second half often cloudy which has kept minimum temps up and at time maxima have been a far above average, but the first half of the month was cold, so overall I won't remember this month as that mild. 

Certainly a very wet March, likely top 3, a notable statistic, and I expect a very dull March. Overall a very poor March, though I enjoyed the cold snowy spell earlier in the month a lot.

Recent years are doing well in bringing in Top wet and mild / warm months as well as sunny months, and dry months as well... just not cold months!

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 6.6C +0.2C above average. Rainfall 125.2mm 206.6% of the monthly average.