March 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Don]

9 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

GFS now going with a much chillier final week to March it’s been behind curve… likely to finish somewhat below 1991-2020 and very close to older baseline I’d say. 

Yes, still enough of the month to go for a range of outcomes.

[The PIT]

After a very warm day yesterday a fair rise and more to come

Sunny Sheffield at 4.5C -1.2C below average. Rainfall 85.9mm 141.7% of the monthly average

[Methuselah]

13 hours ago, Don said:

As far as El Nino goes and the affects on winter, it depends on what type, for example a moderate or strong basin wide event would suggest a potentially very mild winter a la 97-98.  However, a weak event or moderate Modiki (central based) event would not necessarily be a bad thing if it's cold you're after, think 09/10.  As for there will be no snow in London or the south next winter that's for sure, you really cannot be serious?!

A couple of years back, I found some stuff about ENSO; and according to that, there's (as of two years ago) still a debate about whether a Modoki even exists. But, anyway, it's far too early to be making predictions about what next winter will be like. 

[Derecho]

12 hours ago, Daniel* said:

GFS now going with a much chillier final week to March it’s been behind curve… likely to finish somewhat below 1991-2020 and very close to older baseline I’d say. 

I'd agree with this, though how far will the cold air push south. Will it be an unsettled messy picture? Close to the 1961-1990 CET average for the end of the month I reckon but below average in Scotland to finish the month, especially the north.

14 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

It will be very mild I think. Another 97/98, or 94/95 or possibly an 82/83.

There will be no snow in London or the south that’s for sure next winter.

 

I would say December and March have warmed the most since late 1987.

December ironically was colder from 1981-2010 compared to 1961-1990 and it was much colder then the 1971-2000 average. December 2010 skewed that average but there was a lot of average or below average Decembers from 1987-2010. It's only in the 2010s we started recording mild Decembers on a regular basis.

12 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

A couple of years back, I found some stuff about ENSO; and according to that, there's (as of two years ago) still a debate about whether a Modoki even exists. But, anyway, it's far too early to be making predictions about what next winter will be like. 

I think it is definitely a thing. The El Nino of 1997/98 had a very strong warming in the eastern Pacific (SSTs 3-5C above average) as did 2015/16. In contrast for 2009/10 and 2004/05 the warming was more focused in the tropical west Pacific. For the 2004/05 El Nino, the warming was so focused in the west Pacific we got a very active Atlantic hurricane season the previous summer, same with 2003.

An El Nino modoki is what I'm looking for if we are to try and get a blocked winter throughout in 2023/24. If it's an east focused El Nino that wouldn't bode well for the first half judging by historical analogues.

Edited March 18, 2023 by Quicksilver1989

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

An El Nino modoki is what I'm looking for if we are to try and get a blocked winter throughout in 2023/24. If it's an east focused El Nino that wouldn't bode well for the first half judging by historical analogues.

And this raises yet another question, I think: Are historical analogues all that useful, given that man-made climate change is now at work? And, no, that's not a rhetorical question, as I genuinely do not know the answer; but it is one that has been bugging me for a while now. 

[Derecho]

10 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

And this raises yet another question, I think: Are historical analogues all that useful, given that man-made climate change is now at work? And, no, that's not a rhetorical question, as I genuinely do not know the answer; but it is one that has been bugging me for a while now. 

Problem is we haven't had many El Nino's since 2010 so the sample size of such winters in recent times is very small. The Multivariate ENSO Index (which I think is the best measure) indicates the only El Nino we have had since 2010 is 2015....
 

MEI.v2: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory

PSL.NOAA.GOV

---

US Department of Commerce, NOAA, Physical Sciences Laboratory

 

Edited March 18, 2023 by Quicksilver1989

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

14 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

It will be very mild I think. Another 97/98, or 94/95 or possibly an 82/83.

There will be no snow in London or the south that’s for sure next winter.

 

I would say December and March have warmed the most since late 1987.

There will definitely be snow in Norway though.

[Summer Sun]

4.9c to the 17th

0.8c below the 61 to 90 average
1.2c below the 81 to 10 average

[Don]

3 hours ago, Methuselah said:

A couple of years back, I found some stuff about ENSO; and according to that, there's (as of two years ago) still a debate about whether a Modoki even exists. But, anyway, it's far too early to be making predictions about what next winter will be like. 

Well, as far as I'm aware, a Modoki El Nino definitely exists and is characterised by warm waters in the Central Pacific and cooler waters off Peru as opposed to a basin wide warm event.

[damianslaw]

6 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

4.9c to the 17th

0.8c below the 61 to 90 average
1.2c below the 81 to 10 average

After a cold start, March is warming well now.. and will do so for the next week, perhaps not at the same rate as recently, but likely to be in the 6s by this time next weekend, a possible cool down could then stop the rise.. but too far out to say yet, a near average CET value looks quite likely, below or above equal odds at this stage. As we saw in 2006 late March can be particularly warm and cancel out cold running means, I'm not seeing a particularly mild end to the month indeed probably more likely to be close to or even below average.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

It’s looking cooler towards the end the month which might help bring the temperature below average.

[Weather-history]

On 16/03/2023 at 22:00, Quicksilver1989 said:

I don't think it's that impressive to be brutally honest. We are only a degree below the 1961-1990 average up to the 15th March. It's only the 89th coldest first half since 1772. 1947 and 1845 both had sub zero CETs up to this point.

Based on the 12z GFS the CET would rise to 6.6C by the end of the month. Still think they could be a cold shot at the end of the month but that figure is 1C above the 1961-1990 average.

I tend to agree, don't think it has been that particularly special at least for the CET area. I think this month is more likely to be remembered for the snowfalls than anything else, south of the Border. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 4.9C -0.9C below normal. Rainfall 86.4mm 142.6% of the monthly average.

A steady rise for next week then a possible return to closer to normal temperatures. Looks like average to above with above being the more likely outlook.

[Summer Sun]

5.3c to the 18th

0.4c below the 61 to 90 average
0.9c below the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

EWP at 66 mm (approx) and GFS suggests 35-40 mm to be added, large portions of England are close to 30 mm but various western regions and Wales all in the 50-70 mm range. So the outcome looks close to 100 mm or a bit higher. Since the record wet March of 1947, only ten have exceeded 100 mm, four of those were 1979 to 1982. Since those, only four more have been as wet (1988, 2001, 2008, 2018). March 2018 (tenth all time at 115.1 mm) is the wettest since 1981 (160.4 mm) which ranked second all-time behind 1947 (177.5 mm). So this month only needs to edge past 2018 to make the top ten, and in fact 127.0 is currently fourth (1979), third is 134.7 (1818). 

Looking at CET, the duration of the cooler temperatures keeps oscillating between 2-4 days and in any case most of the other days left appear close to average, so would have to say close to 6.0 C is likely, hoping it's closer to 5.4 myself. 

Will be starting the April contest thread overnight, should be available Monday morning with all the past data to confuse or enlighten. 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Looks like there’s too many mild days for it to finish below 6c now unfortunately.

Edited March 19, 2023 by prolongedSnowLover

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 5C -0.8C below average. Rainfall 86.5mm 142.7% of the monthly average

[feb1991blizzard]

15 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Looks like there’s too many mild days for it to finish below 6c now unfortunately.

Looking like 7 to me now.

[Summer Sun]

5.4c to the 19th

0.3c below the 61 to 90 average
0.8c below the 81 to 10 average

[DR(S)NO]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Looking like 7 to me now.

Interesting Feb. That’s quite a difference between yours and Rogers estimation.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

24 minutes ago, DR(S)NO said:

Interesting Feb. That’s quite a difference between yours and Rogers estimation.

Have you seen the daily maxes for this week ? Expect a quick rise this week to closer to 7c and then probably stay around there with the absence of persistent cold temperatures.

[DR(S)NO]

5 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Have you seen the daily maxes for this week ? Expect a quick rise this week to closer to 7c and then probably stay around there with the absence of persistent cold temperatures.

I wasn’t questioning the estimation… more the large difference in estimations. Given they may be looking at the same charts

 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, DR(S)NO said:

Interesting Feb. That’s quite a difference between yours and Rogers estimation.

as you get towards the end of month the increments go down, however the temps are that warm throughout the CET zone next 5-6 days, relative to the current CET, there are likely to still be 0.2 or more increases, conservative estimate it will hit 6 with a couple of very warm days left, then the cold spell only looks average and short now so no decrease, then back to mild right at end, it certainly wont be 6 or below unless there's a serious backtrack in the modelling.

[Scorcher]

The cold spell earlier in the month is becoming a distant memory now. 15.8C here today and feeling very mild this afternoon with a very light wind. It looks unlikely now we'll see anything significantly cold before the month is out, so the CET should creep gradually towards the 81-10 average.

[Roger J Smith]

Difference of estimates was mostly due to looking at a colder run, today's GFS guidance would suggest a steady climb towards 7. That colder turn around next Sunday-Monday seems to be pretty much gone for the time being. Still, a rather strong gradient suggested so a small error magnified after a while and we could see a colder run again. Anyway, we managed to get onto a list of cold starts to March, so there's that.