March 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

On 21/03/2023 at 19:56, kold weather said:

We are nearly certain to be above the 61-90 average now. Only 1 month now below 61-90 in nearly 2 years.

But isn’t the 61-90 range outdated due to global warming ? 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

But isn’t the 61-90 range outdated due to global warming ? 

Yes, not sure why that is still used when we have 3 newer alternatives now, else why not just use 1674-1990?

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, not sure why that is still used when we have 3 newer alternatives now, else why not just use 1674-1990?

It does seem very outdated prior to 61-90 average being used, I think 41-70 average was used in the 90s. Move forward 30 years and we should be using the 81-10 average now. The 61-90 period featured the cold 60s, a relatively cold 70s - more so the summer months, a cold 80s up until 1988. The 81-10 period includes the much milder 90s and 00s against a background of global warming.

Edited March 22, 2023 by damianslaw

[Roger J Smith]

I've mentioned before that UK is only country using this hoary old average from my youth, USA already uses 1991-2020 in their monthly data tables, and both Ireland and Canada use 1981-2010 and will probably update to 1991-2020 fairly soon. It is time to call 1961-90 to the bench and send in a fresh set of legs.

 

(storing the following not official table, will be removed from this post and placed in thread on 1st April when confirmed)

CET and EWP ranks for Mar 2023 (from table of entries) 

 

Rank _ CET_ EWP _ Forecaster (Order of entry) _______ EWP rank ___ Best combined rank

01 __ 7.0 __ 30.0 __ The PIT ( 17 ) __________________________ 52

02 __ 7.1 __ --- ---__ Typhoon John ( 06 ) __________________

03 __ 7.1 __ 90.0 __ Leo97t ( 26 ) ___________________________ 3 _____ (6) best combined

04 __ 6.9 __ 59.0 __ davehsug ( 50 ) ________________________37

05 __ 6.9 __ 88.5 __ snowray ( 28 ) _________________________ 5 _____ (10) 2nd best combined

06 __ 6.8 __ 28.0 __ catbrainz ( 04 ) ________________________ 53

07 __ 6.8 __ 23.0 __ Moorlander ( 18 ) _____________________ 54

08 __ 6.8 __ 72.0 __ rwtwm ( 42 ) ___________________________17 _____(25) 4th best combined

09 __ 6.8 __ 68.0 __ J 10 ( 53 ) ______________________________ 24 _____(33) 9th best combined

10 __ 7.2 __ --- ---__ Quicksilver1989 ( 55 ) _____________

11 __ 7.3 __ 85.0 __ syed2878 ( 13 ) ________________________ 6 _____ (17) 3rd best combined

12 __ 6.7 __ 74.0 __ Reef ( 27 ) _____________________________ 14 _____(26) 5th best combined

(11)__6.7 __ 65.4 __1991-2020 average (93-22 63.6 mm) __30.6, 32.7 

13 __ 7.4 __ 37.0 __ Metwatch ( 19 ) ________________________49

14 __ 6.6 __ 68.0 __ Wold Topper ( 41 ) ____________________ 23 _____(37) 12th best combined

(13) _6.6 __ 71.5 __ 1981-2010 average ___________________ 17.2 __ (30.2) _ (7th)

15 __ 6.5 __ 35.0 __ chilly milly ( 03 ) _______________________ 50

16 __ 6.5 __ 65.0 __ DR(S)NO ( 14 ) _________________________ 31 _____(47) 15th best combined

17 __ 6.5 __ 70.0 __ freeze ( 36 ) ____________________________19 _____(36) t10th best combined

18 __ 6.5 __ 40.0 __ Earthshine ( 40 ) _______________________ 48

19 __ 7.6 __ 56.0 __ SLEETY ( 22 ) ___________________________ 41

20 __ 6.4 __ 62.6 __ LetItSnow! ( 25 ) _______________________ 33

21 __ 6.4 __ 77.0 __ February1978 ( 54 ) ____________________11 _____(32) t7th best combined

22 __ 6.3 __ 82.0 __ virtualsphere ( 11 ) _____________________ 8 _____ (30) 6th best combined

23 __ 6.3 __ 75.0 __ I remember Atlantic 252 ( 24 ) _________ 13 _____ (36) t10th best combined

24 __ 6.3 __ 70.0 __ Midlands Ice Age ( 44 ) _________________ 20 _____ (44) 14th best combined

25 __ 6.2 __ --- ---__ Summer Sun ( 20 ) ___________________

26 __ 7.8 __ 65.0 __ Summer Blizzard ( 30 ) _________________ 32

27 __ 6.1 __ 69.0 __ Emmett Garland ( 21 ) __________________21 

28 __ 6.1 __ 90.0 __ Don ( 58 ) _______________________________ 4 _____ (32) t7 best combined

29 __ 5.9 __ 44.0 __ dancerwithwings ( 09 ) __________________47

30 __ 5.9 __ 67.0 __ Feb1991Blizzard ( 23 ) __________________ 25

31 __ 5.9 __ --- ---__ damianslaw ( 31 ) _____________________

32 __ 5.9 __ --- --- _ Mark Bayley ( 51 ) _____________________

33 __ 5.9 __ 66.0 __ Mapantz ( 57 ) ___________________________30

(27) _5.9 __ 67.0 __ consensus ______________________________ 25

34 __ 5.8 __ 59.5 __ Bobd29 ( 02 ) ____________________________ 36

35 __ 5.8 __ --- ---__ Man with Beard ( 39 ) _________________

36 __ 5.8 __ 58.0 __ Norrance ( 47 ) __________________________ 39

37 __ 5.8 __ 80.0 __ Frigid ( 59 ) _______________________________10

38 __ 5.7 __110.0__ ProlongedSnowLover ( 46 ) ______________ 1 ____ (39) 13th best combined

39 __ 5.6 __ 45.0 __ seaside60 ( 29 ) ___________________________46

40 __ 5.5 __ 55.0 __ Methuselah ( 08 ) ______ was EdStone_____ 42

41 __ 5.5 __ 60.0 __ DiagonalRedLine ( 15 ) ____________________35

42 __ 5.5 __ 32.0 __ Pegg24 ( 32 ) ______________________________ 51

43 __ 5.5 __ 76.0 __ Mulzy ( 45 ) ________________________________12

44 __ 5.4 __ 45.8 __ Roger J Smith ( 33 ) ________________________45

45 __ 5.4 __ 48.0 __ Weather Observer ( 43 ) ___________________43

46 __ 5.3 __ 66.0 __ Summer18 ( 01 ) __________________________ 29

47 __ 5.3 __ 67.0 __ SummerShower ( 16 ) _____________________ 26

48 __ 5.3 __ 62.0 __ noname_weather ( 56 ) ___________________ 34

50 __ 5.3 __ 75.0 __ JeffC ( L1-3 ) _______________________________ 15

49 __ 4.9 __ 67.0 __ Mr Maunder ( 37 ) _________________________27

51 __ 4.8 __ 57.0 __ SteveB ( 10 ) _______________________________40

52 __ 4.8 __ 84.0 __ Godber1 ( 52 ) _____________________________ 7

54 __ 4.7 __ --- --- __ Kentish Man ( L1-2  ) ___________________

53 __ 4.4 __ 47.0 __ cymro ( 34 ) _______________________________43

55 __ 4.3 __ 92.0 __ Stationary Front ( 49 ) _____________________ 2

56 __ 4.1 __ 16.0 __ shillitocettwo ( 05 ) ________________________55

57 __ 4.0 __ 80.2 __ Polar Gael ( 07 ) ___________________________ 9

58 __ 3.9 __ 72.0 __ jonboy ( 48 ) ______________________________ 16

59 __ 3.9 __ 70.0 __ daniel* ( 35 ) ______________________________18

61 __ 3.8 __ 58.0 __ stewfox ( 38 ) _____________________________ 38

60 __ 3.6 __ --- ---__ Walsall Wood Snow ( L1-1 ) ______________

63 __ 3.1 __ 68.0 __ Blast From the Past ( L2-1 ) _______________ 28

62 __ 2.3 __ 68.8 __ Kirkcaldy Weather ( 12 ) ___________________22

=================================

EWP forecasts in order

110_pSL .. 92_SF .. 90_Leo, Don .. 88.5_snow .. 85_syed .. 84_godb .. 82_virt .. 80.2_PG

 80_Frig .. 77_Feb78 .. 76_Mul ..  75_I rem,Jeff^ .. 74_Reef .. 72_jon, rwtwm ..  71.5 _81-10

 70_dan, fre, MIA .. 69_EG .. 68.8_KW .. 68_WT,J10,BFTP^^ .. 67_Feb91, SumSh, MrM .. 66_sum18, Map ..

 65.4 _91-20 .. 65_DR(S), sb ..  63.6 _93-22 .. 62.6_LIS .. 62_non

 60_DRL .. 59.5_Bobd .. 59_dave .. 58_stew, Norr .. 57_Ste .. 56_SLE

 55_Meth .. 48_WxOb .. 47_cym .. 45.8_ RJS .. 45_sea .. 44_dww

 40_Earth .. 37_Met .. 35_ cm .. 32_pegg .. 30_PIT .. 28_cat .. 23_Moor .. 16_shil

 

Edited March 31, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[Roger J Smith]

Could I just suggest also that calls to "explain" contest entries not really good form, that might be okay in the model thread which is more technical, but the contests are basically a playground for enthusiasts and should remain so. I try to provide as much data support as possible which might be giving the impression that we are conducting actual science here, but there is no science of long-range forecasting, if there was, these contests would be no contest. Now I'm not saying some people don't have inherent skill and you know who those people are, they consistently finish high in the scoring. I am not saying there is absolutely nothing one could possibly know about this subject, we are a bit past that stage, but this is not rocket science either. The best in this field are still pretty close to random if maybe somewhat improved, and then you have to factor in that a one-month forecast takes a known starting point and the actual challenge here is to assess what lies over the horizon in the second half. Sort of like Argentina-France applied to the weather. It's a guessing game at the best of times. And as to the non-appearance of a cold month, this one will finish average at best by modern standards. We've had a lot of warmed up arctic air coming around the long way for the past week or so, and in parts of Ireland and Scotland it hasn't warmed up all that much (or it snuck in the back door). 

[kold weather]

11 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, not sure why that is still used when we have 3 newer alternatives now, else why not just use 1674-1990?

Because Its also a way of tracking background warming. The use of 61-90 is arbitrary of course, its just the met office clearly like that to help measure warming of the CET zone.

For example we are nearing the point where a near 1c below current average month is still above the 61-90 average. Strongly highlights that warming.

I'm personally going to keep referencing that mean in a warming world as it just helps to really highlight how hot we are getting versus the past.

Edited March 23, 2023 by kold weather

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, kold weather said:

Because Its also a way of tracking background warming. The use of 61-90 is arbitrary of course, its just the met office clearly like that to help measure warming of the CET zone.

For example we are nearing the point where a near 1c below current average month is still above the 61-90 average. Strongly highlights that warming.

I'm personally going to keep referencing that mean in a warming world as it just helps to really highlight how hot we are getting versus the past.

so then your admitting, its used to measure climate change, not current weather, which is fine as long as that is clear from the outset.

[Methuselah]

25 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

so then your admitting, its used to measure climate change, not current weather, which is fine as long as that is clear from the outset.

Isn't it obvious, Feb? 

[Summer Sun]

6.1c to the 22nd

0.4c above the 61 to 90 average
0.2c below the 81 to 10 average

[Relativistic]

7 hours ago, kold weather said:

Because Its also a way of tracking background warming. The use of 61-90 is arbitrary of course, its just the met office clearly like that to help measure warming of the CET zone.

For example we are nearing the point where a near 1c below current average month is still above the 61-90 average. Strongly highlights that warming.

I'm personally going to keep referencing that mean in a warming world as it just helps to really highlight how hot we are getting versus the past.

It really wouldn't be that difficult for the Met Office to add a second anomaly column for a modern average whilst retaining the 1961-90 anomalies (I imagine this would take a matter of minutes to implement).

Both averages are useful for different reasons. Why not quote both? We've been doing it here for a few years now.

[kold weather]

7 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

so then your admitting, its used to measure climate change, not current weather, which is fine as long as that is clear from the outset.

Absolutely, send as years go by it will likely become increasingly obvious how temperatures out of certain synoptic evolutions have shifted, and in these sorts of months which are close to the current norm but a little above the old one it becomes particularly interesting.

There is clearly a need for a modern average as well mind you.

@Relativistic does make you wonder whether there is a slight motive in not doing so...

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 5.9C -0.1C below average. Rainfall 100mm 165.0% of the monthly average.

[damianslaw]

Surprised how mild returning means are at present, the air source is from the arctic but just taking a long route around the slow moving atlantic trough, modified, but I'm surprised at how much so, we haven't a long fetch tropical maritime airflow. Reason why these south westerlies from the arctic are so mild?

[feb1991blizzard]

23 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Could I just suggest also that calls to "explain" contest entries not really good form, that might be okay in the model thread which is more technical, but the contests are basically a playground for enthusiasts and should remain so. I try to provide as much data support as possible which might be giving the impression that we are conducting actual science here, but there is no science of long-range forecasting, if there was, these contests would be no contest. Now I'm not saying some people don't have inherent skill and you know who those people are, they consistently finish high in the scoring. I am not saying there is absolutely nothing one could possibly know about this subject, we are a bit past that stage, but this is not rocket science either. The best in this field are still pretty close to random if maybe somewhat improved, and then you have to factor in that a one-month forecast takes a known starting point and the actual challenge here is to assess what lies over the horizon in the second half. Sort of like Argentina-France applied to the weather. It's a guessing game at the best of times. And as to the non-appearance of a cold month, this one will finish average at best by modern standards. We've had a lot of warmed up arctic air coming around the long way for the past week or so, and in parts of Ireland and Scotland it hasn't warmed up all that much (or it snuck in the back door). 

Is it still ok to discuss what you need towards the end of the month to suit your entry and towards year end where you might finish in the annual and things like that?

[Don]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Surprised how mild returning means are at present, the air source is from the arctic but just taking a long route around the slow moving atlantic trough, modified, but I'm surprised at how much so, we haven't a long fetch tropical maritime airflow. Reason why these south westerlies from the arctic are so mild?

Probably a combination of the Arctic being less cold and the warmer Atlantic I would have thought?  Imagine how mild/warm it would have been with a long fetch tropical maritime airflow?!! 

[richie3846]

On 22/03/2023 at 23:05, Roger J Smith said:

Could I just suggest also that calls to "explain" contest entries not really good form, that might be okay in the model thread which is more technical, but the contests are basically a playground for enthusiasts and should remain so. I try to provide as much data support as possible which might be giving the impression that we are conducting actual science here, but there is no science of long-range forecasting, if there was, these contests would be no contest. Now I'm not saying some people don't have inherent skill and you know who those people are, they consistently finish high in the scoring. I am not saying there is absolutely nothing one could possibly know about this subject, we are a bit past that stage, but this is not rocket science either. The best in this field are still pretty close to random if maybe somewhat improved, and then you have to factor in that a one-month forecast takes a known starting point and the actual challenge here is to assess what lies over the horizon in the second half. Sort of like Argentina-France applied to the weather. It's a guessing game at the best of times. And as to the non-appearance of a cold month, this one will finish average at best by modern standards. We've had a lot of warmed up arctic air coming around the long way for the past week or so, and in parts of Ireland and Scotland it hasn't warmed up all that much (or it snuck in the back door). 

Well said. I make no secret that I won last year's competition for the CET, simply by going slightly above the latest 30 year average, except for July and August, where I suspected that the dust bowl conditions of Europe and UK would send temperatures higher, and I was correct about that. No science or skill involved, except a hunch about dry soils in summer. I just took the boring route and came out on top.

I've not entered this year's compo, but I still read with interest, especially Roger's encyclopedic knowledge. Here's hoping for a warm April in the CET zone

[Roger J Smith]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Is it still ok to discuss what you need towards the end of the month to suit your entry and towards year end where you might finish in the annual and things like that?

Sure, and it's not my place to make any rules by the way (apart from scoring EWP), just my take on keeping the contest fun for all. Also I don't want to over-react to a post that was probably meant to be banter, there's plenty of that in the past contest threads but some members (not Fred BFTP, I know) can take banter as serious criticism and then they stop entering, which we don't want. So if there's anything to take away, don't take anything about the contest too seriously, it's good to give your best effort of course, I never saw much point in a strategy of making a forecast almost sure to lose, but sometimes people play hunches about fairly extreme outcomes that come to pass, and it's a fun thing to do when it works out. When it goes "pear shaped" then it's a grin and bear it moment. 

[Scorcher]

9 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Surprised how mild returning means are at present, the air source is from the arctic but just taking a long route around the slow moving atlantic trough, modified, but I'm surprised at how much so, we haven't a long fetch tropical maritime airflow. Reason why these south westerlies from the arctic are so mild?

Because it's the 2nd half of March perhaps? Also does it really matter about the source of the air if it's being modified a lot with a long sea track?

We don't need a long fetch tropical flow at this time of year to produce these sorts of temps.

[Earthshine]

11 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Surprised how mild returning means are at present, the air source is from the arctic but just taking a long route around the slow moving atlantic trough, modified, but I'm surprised at how much so, we haven't a long fetch tropical maritime airflow. Reason why these south westerlies from the arctic are so mild?

Sea surface temperatures are above normal.  That and also the arctic has warmed quite substantially.

[Don]

3 hours ago, Earthshine said:

Sea surface temperatures are above normal.  That and also the arctic has warmed quite substantially.

Yes, that's exactly what I said in my post.

[reef]

Although there haven't been any notable high temperatures over the last 10 days or so, it has been rather warm on average. Here, the mean for the last 9 days has been 10.5C. It has been consistently 13-15C by day and 6-9C by night. The increase in the monthly average here mirrors the CET zone in that we've gone from 3.9C on the 15th to 6.4C now.

 

[Summer Sun]

6.3c to the 23rd

0.6c above the 61 to 90 average
Bang on the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 6.1C  +0.1C above average. Rainfall 100.5mm 165.8% of the monthly average.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP now around 92 mm, having reached 85 mm by 22nd, at least 7 mm fell yesterday (grid average). GFS says to expect 20 mm more by end of month, any amount over 101 would confirm the preliminary scoring report. I will post a more detailed scoring report at end of month. 

CET will probably fall a bit now to 28th then regain what it loses 29th to 31st. Most likely end point around 6.4 C. 

[Don]

44 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

CET will probably fall a bit now to 28th then regain what it loses 29th to 31st. Most likely end point around 6.4 C. 

Disappointingly mild considering how it cold it was looking, but months like this are not unusual these days!!