March 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Don]

13 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Difference of estimates was mostly due to looking at a colder run, today's GFS guidance would suggest a steady climb towards 7. That colder turn around next Sunday-Monday seems to be pretty much gone for the time being. Still, a rather strong gradient suggested so a small error magnified after a while and we could see a colder run again. Anyway, we managed to get onto a list of cold starts to March, so there's that. 

Still disappointing to fail to get a below average month though and looking like it could actually be rather mild overall!

Edited March 20, 2023 by Don

[damianslaw]

In a holding pattern right now, had things shifted a bit further east we would be locked on the cold side of the jet, with polar air, alas we have a slow moving trough to our west and heights to the SE pulling in a mild SW feed, it seems notably mild to me, the isobars are not that long fetch south westerly, but any airstream from between west and south nowadays just seems to be well above average maxima and minima whatever the time of year, and a synoptic I despise!

A rise in the days ahead will comfortably be in the 6s by the weekend, then a probable stall with a possible slight rise. Chances of a below average finish despite a solidly cold start increasingly unlikely. 

[Don]

40 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

A rise in the days ahead will comfortably be in the 6s by the weekend, then a probable stall with a possible slight rise. Chances of a below average finish despite a solidly cold start increasingly unlikely. 

So difficult to get a below average month these days!  I know December was but all other months in 2022 were average or above/well above.  Surprising how many cold looking winter months turn out to be above average these days with February 2021 the most recent example, but Februaries 2009 also 2012 similar to a point.  I think we have to be evermore dubious about months which show strong signs of being colder than average these days!

Edited March 20, 2023 by Don

[feb1991blizzard]

This run a bit better but still too short lived to reduce CET by a great deal.

[Summer Sun]

5.6c to the 20th

0.1c below the 61 to 90 average
0.6c below the 81 to 10 average

[snowray]

My word, at this rate we could be at 6c by tomorrow, after a mild night already 11-15c widely I noticed at 1pm.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Next month I’ll go mild.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 5.3C -0.6C below normal. Rainfall 90.2mm 148.8% of the monthly average.

[Don]

53 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Next month I’ll go mild.

Safe bet and think I likely will too.  My estimate for March looked to be too high not so long ago, but could well be way too low now!! 

[Dancerwithwings]

19 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This run a bit better but still too short lived to reduce CET by a great deal.

Looking at the latest developments this afternoon, as you mentioned feb,  it maybe short lived but it’ll hold the CET back if it comes apparent

 

[Don]

Just now, Dancerwithwings said:

Looking at the latest developments this afternoon, as you mentioned feb,  it maybe short lived but it’ll hold the CET back if it comes apparent

 

Still likely to come out above average now I think.

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Looking at the latest developments this afternoon, as you mentioned feb,  it maybe short lived but it’ll hold the CET back if it comes apparent

 

What did you go for? my 5.9c has busted, its just about not taking too bigger hit to push me down the annual the annual - sliding down the EWP already this month a guarantee now.

[Dancerwithwings]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

What did you go for? my 5.9c has busted, its just about not taking too bigger hit to push me down the annual the annual - sliding down the EWP already this month a guarantee now.

Wow.. same 5.9c…my 44mm is well and truly busted

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Wow.. same 5.9c…my 44mm is well and truly busted

good job i changed, i had 3.1 to start with but changed 2 days before deadline, i thought the SSW was going to produce a more robust Greenland high but the modelling did just enough to discourage me, i was going to change again to 6.3 but never did.

[Guest]

On 12/03/2023 at 10:37, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted January 3

Location: Redhill, Surrey

March 23…..a month to remember.  HP control 1st ten days or so, either cold continental or milder SE/S’ly flow.  Dramatic Deep LP plunges over UK SSE bringing coldest 2nd half of month for decades.  Cyclonic N and NE’ly winds

 

BFTP
 

 

Yes the models did make one think that the cold spell was ushering quicker than anticipated.  But goalposts still in place

 

BFTP

So, near on 15c here today and same again tomorrow....you seem to have disappeared @BLAST FROM THE PAST along with this "coldest second half of month for decades" claim. Was it just rhetoric? Intrigued to learn what went wrong for your forecast?

[kold weather]

We are nearly certain to be above the 61-90 average now. Only 1 month now below 61-90 in nearly 2 years.

[emmett garland]

Lucky if it finished above 6 oc with this morning outlook..Cool and unsettled 

[Summer Sun]

5.8c to the 21st

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.4c below the 81 to 10 average

[Scorcher]

5 hours ago, emmett garland said:

Lucky if it finished above 6 oc with this morning outlook..Cool and unsettled 

We must not be looking at the same models- it will be above 6C by tomorrow by the looks of it and should continue to edge upwards until Sunday.

Yes there is a colder interlude coming (not enough to severely dent the CET) but temps will recover again in the last 3 days of the month anyway I think.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 5.6C -0.3C below average. Rainfall 93.3mm 154% of the monthly average.

Looking like it will sneak into the top ten wettest Marches. Should be above average by Friday then it's a case of how cold the nights are too see what damage is done to the average.

Edited March 22, 2023 by The PIT

[Don]

6 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

5.8c to the 21st

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.4c below the 81 to 10 average

Temperatures back to 'normal' above average!!

[feb1991blizzard]

3 hours ago, Scorcher said:

We must not be looking at the same models- it will be above 6C by tomorrow by the looks of it and should continue to edge upwards until Sunday.

Yes there is a colder interlude coming (not enough to severely dent the CET) but temps will recover again in the last 3 days of the month anyway I think.

 

9 hours ago, emmett garland said:

Lucky if it finished above 6 oc with this morning outlook..Cool and unsettled 

Yes, while the brief colder spell does have -8c uppers engulfing the country, its too late for it to equal severe cold, if it was Dec 21st then yes, you could be looking at a big sub zero day or 2, so could lower it substantially, but not significantly in late march enough to bring 6 back into the equation.

[emmett garland]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 

Yes, while the brief colder spell does have -8c uppers engulfing the country, its too late for it to equal severe cold, if it was Dec 21st then yes, you could be looking at a big sub zero day or 2, so could lower it substantially, but not significantly in late march enough to bring 6 back into the equation.

it just looked earlier that the milder interlude was going to keep it around 6.. Clutching at straws maybe as I predicted  6.1

[feb1991blizzard]

I'd be delighted with 6.4c now, even though there's bound to be such a clustering of entries around there, i'd still be lucky to finish in top 20.  

@emmett garland

Edited March 22, 2023 by feb1991blizzard

[Don]

22 minutes ago, emmett garland said:

it just looked earlier that the milder interlude was going to keep it around 6.. Clutching at straws maybe as I predicted  6.1

Me too, but looks likely we will be too low unlike a couple of weeks ago!