Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

[Paul_1978]

56 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

I don't say this lightly ( and we have been here before with charts on the perifery of and within FI) that haven't verified anything like shown) but...

This would be a March spell for the history books talked of in the same breath as 47 and 63, with the key to the historic nature it being March of course.

If we can get a couple of weeks out of the situation as shown.

Come on now.....

[seabreeze86]

Little trend i am noticing is to bring the colder air in quicker on Saturday 

illustrated best by the APERGE 

Edited February 28, 2023 by seabreeze86

[mushymanrob]

Well done the ECM, which appears to have lead the way and on this occassion trumped the NOAA charts.

[Notty]

2 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Well done the ECM, which appears to have lead the way and on this occassion trumped the NOAA charts.

We haven’t got there yet - just saying

[Updated_Weather]

Just now, Notty said:

We haven’t got there yet - just saying

Getting closer.
I think UKMO has done great with this, most consistent. 

[Duane S.]

If snow preservation is your primary worry when it comes to a cold snap/spell then you’re getting it all wrong. The best time of year would naturally by around mid December for that, however that’s exactly at the time when the vortex is naturally winding up to dominate, thus exactly when low lying snowfall becomes less likely as a direct result. Expecting optimal Synoptics at the optimal point of winter will lead way more often to disappointment than to joy. We will chase it every year regardless and every so often the stars will align.

A bit like the couple on Phil & Kirsty who want the best house, for a cheap price in the right location. Apart from very rarely, it doesn’t happen, and again for obvious reasons. It’s not bad luck or typical UK etc etc that we often see more genuine opportunities at this time of year than back in December.

Many years we don’t even get that of course but a snowy cold March looks something that is quite possible this year.

[Stuie]

1 hour ago, Mark wheeler said:

Great morning runs and mogreps going cold this morning too. Looks an improvement to me .

Looks like it has headed back to where it was 2 days ago.

[Ali1977]

T120, looks like a snowier feature heading towards us from Norway - also block slightly more round which should stop That early westward shift 

Edited February 28, 2023 by Ali1977

[Notty]

#s4lancia on Jan 28 posted this

 

[Rain All Night]

The initial cold front is approaching ever more reliable timeframes now...

[BlueHedgehog074]

I think the models have caught the 12Z Syndrome this morning - often less encouraging for cold/wintry outlooks in their 00Z runs and more encouraging for them during their afternoon updates. 

[Stuie]

Heard this morning that Mallorca is expecting a foot of snow and has issued warnings. 

Just shows you don`t need ridiculous setups. 

Edited February 28, 2023 by Stuie

[DJ Fart]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

T120, looks like a snowier feature heading towards us from Norway 

Anyone know what the skiing is like in Norway?

[ICE COLD]

We’re inching closer

[Ali1977]

Is that a polar lp heading south ? 

[mulzy]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Is that a polar lp heading south ? 

Looks like a normal warm core low to me.

[Downburst]

00Z ECM, It's marginal at this stage, with Sleet more than rain forecast for next Tuesday, but very cold and time to change. I wouldn't bet on it being widespread snow yet.

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

doesnt look as good this 6z..gfs persistent in messing around with these little shortwaves

Edited February 28, 2023 by Lukesluckybunch
spelling

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, mulzy said:

Looks like a normal warm core low to me.

Might bring the goods in, it’s a shame the GFS has crashed at 138

[IDO]

Although I am disappointed that the trough drops too far east and we miss out on the extreme cold initially as that would have set a good foundation, we have caught the periphery, so that is good news, and we may see the pattern creep west:

The next stage is the heights to the NW and whether they can orientate well for the second wave of colder uppers for a UK hit. We will need some consistency going forward concerning that. Then we have a low-pressure east -v- west clash, and I am never sure how that will go compared to westerly -v- easterly HP.

[winterof79]

22 minutes ago, Notty said:

We haven’t got there yet - just saying

I posted yesterday the GEFS and ECM both predicted this.The GFS Op was out of kilter

[MJB]

Just need the cold air to get a move on and be in place before the LP arrives , if it does it could be spectacular 

[Ali1977]

Just now, MJB said:

Just need the cold air to get a move on and be in place before the LP arrives , if it does it could be spectacular 

Yeah this looks snowy , you don’t need low 850s with this - sliderville territory

[MJB]

Heavy snow into the SW

[Lukesluckybunch]

not a good run this we losing heights quicker around greenland..and the cold air never really makes it from the northeast..i could see early on..far too messy from the gfs