Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

[Battleground Snow]

3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Gfs starting to smell the other models coffee . 18z first 12z second image 

I really hope they fix it before next winter, it will save lots of commentary on its output.

It looks very similar to the ecm at 144 now.

[Cheshire Freeze]

GFS is, I suspect, playing catch up this evening. At 144 hrs you can see the little trigger shortwave just to the E of Iceland-behind this trigger is where the proper cold will be ushered in

[ICE COLD]

Well the difference is stark at 144 comparing with the 12z . Not quite there yet . 

[Met4Cast]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

But Sebastian, the start date wasn’t the 27th of feb …… the start date was the 15th feb.  This is the conundrum we currently face - are we seeing a quick response to the warming started yesterday with its steep drop towards -20m/s or are we seeing the downwelling wave arrive in the trop 3 weeks after the initial ssw began ????

 

I suspect the answer is "both". 

The first warming significantly weakened the vortex but was unable to downwell to impact the trop due to strong equatorward flux, the second warming driven by strong poleward fluxing & I suspect helped along by a strong East Asian Mountain Torque event drove the knockout blow & what we're seeing being modelled now is a QTR from the second warming, helped by the fact the vortex was more beaten up than Jake Paul.

[Snowman.]

Almost full climb down now.

 vs 

 

ECM  Ens still had some like left so nothing confirmed yet, but nice to see.

Edited February 27, 2023 by Snowman.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Though likely to be expected, you could use even the strongest magnifying glass in the universe, but I wish anyone luck to be able to spot the Vortex on the Western side of the Northern Hemisphere on the GFS 18Z.

Edited February 27, 2023 by DiagonalRedLine

[Aiden2012]

The pub run is coming to life

[john mac1]

Has Nick, fallen off his chair? Where are you Nick?

[ICE COLD]

More of an easterly element to the 18z run

Edited February 27, 2023 by ICE COLD

[Lukesluckybunch]

its not a patch on ECM..but it isnt bad

[Cheshire Freeze]

Is the GFS throwing darts whilst blindfolded?

Edited February 27, 2023 by CreweCold

[Snowman.]

GFS fails to cut off the high, leading to a slow collapse. But great improvements earlier on.

[seabreeze86]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Is the GFS throwing darts whilst blindfolded?

It’s usually dartboard lows it throws in fairness 

[alexisj9]

3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

More of an easterly element to the 18z run

I won't complain lol 

[feb1991blizzard]

[Neilsouth]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

 

Is it trying to build a scandi/siberian high?

[alexisj9]

11 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

 

Is it trying to build a scandi/siberian high?

Wouldn't surprise me, but with all that PV there, there's no chance pmsl.

Edited February 27, 2023 by alexisj9

[mountain shadow]

GFS Ops the usual 2 days behind 

[Mucka]

GFS 18z 144 mean is much better than the 12z

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Just got in and boy what an ECM run that was

mean and op at day 9,...what a cross polar flow that is,...Atlantic,...thow shall not pass.

[Allseasons-Si]

The op/control and mean at 168,...this is as far as we look here and anything beyod this is fl.

[Allseasons-Si]

The mean is an improvement so far against the 12z.

[The Enforcer]

4 hours ago, ICE COLD said:

A few -9s in there at T168

No prizes for guessing where the precipitation will be concentrated.

[The Enforcer]

4 hours ago, Alexis said:

People complain about the sun's strength in March, but it's helpful when it comes to getting the precipitation in the first place. The two cold spells we've had this winter have been disappointingly dry.

Also, precipitation might turn up in the 11.5 hours or so when the sun isn't up.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Looks  like a near perfect imprint of the first warming we saw to me?