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Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

Cheshire Freeze

By Cheshire Freeze
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please keep your posts to discussing the model output in this thread, and for more general winter weather chat please use the Spring chat, moans and ramps thread.

The model highlights thread is also available for a more concise view of the model discussions. 

Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
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Posted (edited)

Another rollercoaster day for coldies ends on a positive note .

After a mixed start we’ve seen general improvements and we end the evening  with the GFS,ICON and JMA all improving .

The latter now shows stronger blocking to the nw .

Its a difficult juggling act for coldies . Our best outcome is of course snow and a decent spell of cold weather to go with it . The heaviest snowfalls though tend to go with more battle ground scenarios but with added risk of the Atlantic getting the upper hand .Or maybe we could aim high and get both ! 

What we don’t want is cold and dry at this stage as time is against us .

At this stage and for fear of jinxing things , likely to verify is the high building into Greenland and some colder air  heading south .

The range of options after that are varied and much depends on how strong the block is and where it sets up and how far west the Scandi trough is initially . Does the block head west nw and allow the Atlantic to try and move in . That would seem the favourite at the moment but we’re still seeing changes and at this point that might be delayed.

Anyway let’s hope these improvements we’ve seen continue into tomorrow.:santa-emoji:

Edited by nick sussex
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Trom Enthusiast

Trom

Posted
  • Location: South Croydon
  • Location: South Croydon
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

Looks  like a near perfect imprint of the first warming we saw to me?

Could contain: Pattern, Outdoors, Nature

Yes and this second stronger reversal is only just happening now.  We know the models struggle with these events from past experiences and the extra levels of vertical resolution do not seem to have noticeably dampened the volatility between runs and models.  The hope for me is the first warming puts us in a pattern like you posted and the recent downwelling compounds the easterly potential in the very long term.  Could be a late start to Spring.  

Edited by Trom
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BlackburnChris Enthusiast

BlackburnChris

Posted
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
Posted

From my point of few,, Gfs seems to want to topple the block that builds around 7th/8th , but doesn't seem to have a clue what to do after , maybe it just going back to default ... Even if the SSW doesn't effect us directly , im pretty sure the +384 chart would look different to the one currently shown ... 

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

Good morning folks.

Icon first out of the blocks and is a stonker, quite ECM 12z like in fact.

iconnh-0-144.pngiconnh-0-168.pngiconnh-0-180.png

The only issue is heights draining away to the NW but it is more important to get the floodgates open at 144 and worry how a cold spell develops and details later.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Author
Posted
Just now, Mucka said:

Good morning folks.

Icon first out of the blocks and is a stonker, quite ECM 12z like in fact.

iconnh-0-144.pngiconnh-0-168.pngiconnh-0-180.png

The only issue is heights draining away to the NW but it is more important to get the floodgates open at 144 and worry how a cold spell develops and details later.

I'm seeing a potential scenario whereby we keep just enough forcing to our NW to enable the jet stream to remain sufficiently far S for the UK to remain cold side. That would then open up the potential for LP to run into to this cold at the base of the main troughing. That would be a dream scenario really.

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted
11 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I'm seeing a potential scenario whereby we keep just enough forcing to our NW to enable the jet stream to remain sufficiently far S for the UK to remain cold side. That would then open up the potential for LP to run into to this cold at the base of the main troughing. That would be a dream scenario really.

Yup, the old channel low scenario would cheer those grumpy Southerner's up. 

😁

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

UKMO and GFS, all aboard the Polar express!

UN144-21.GIF?28-05gfsnh-0-144.png

Looking very good now.

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
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Posted

A late one from me,...but the Atlantic looks lost on the UKMO😳

UN144-21.thumb.gif.64c00271f80aebac3f934ebdf69a1dc2.gifCould contain: Number, Symbol, Text

great start to the morning.

and the gfs is looking good here,...goodnight/morning😳

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Outdoors, Nature

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
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Posted (edited)

We can add a rip-snorting GEM to the list. Just ECM for the full house.

gemnh-0-186.png  

UKMO 168, a bit chilly.

ukmonh-0-168.png

Edited by Mucka
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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

Another nice improvement on GFS ensemble mean 144h

gensnh-31-1-144.png

Things have almost gone too well this morning. 🙈🙉🙊

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london-snow Aficionado

london-snow

Posted
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.
Posted

Great set of charts this morning thus far as pointed out above, we are now imo starting to see mid term upgrades and no further delays to the pattern. I for one hope that this continues. 

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EML Network Rising Star

EML Network

Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
Posted (edited)

Well we finally have all the models joining the party. @144

Its like being in a candy store and everything you see is your favourite sweet.

And not only that but there is a still a signal for an Easterly further down the line.

BUT there is also an equally strong signal that this could turn into a 2 day bust and we'll all be wondering why we spent the best part of 10 days getting excited by a  2 day cold snap.

UKMO has to be given praise its the only model that has not faltered once throughout this entire 10 day period absolutely resolute with its offerings right from the outset. ! and once again the pick of the bunch if you ask me this morning.

Best period of model watching for us coldies in a long long while.

Enjoy the output today folks regardless of what each model shows post 192.

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Nature, OutdoorsUW144-21(6).thumb.gif.c60f89da9ebb0f9eeeee9a899223b2fb.gifCould contain: Chart, Plot, Nature, Outdoors, Map, Hurricane, StormECM1-144(5).thumb.gif.38e844fe11a59ff34aead119c1970025.gifCould contain: Chart, Plot, Nature, Outdoors

 

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Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
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Posted
28 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Another nice improvement on GFS ensemble mean 144h

gensnh-31-1-144.png

Things have almost gone too well this morning. 🙈🙉🙊

You know a cold spell is on the horizon when all of the 00z runs upgrade,

Very nice set of gefs coming out

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SteveB Veteran

SteveB

Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
Posted

Just over 4 days away from entering an epic cold spell. Thats 108hrs. 

We've seen it all go wrong within 72hrs before...... come on, let's get this one over the line. 

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Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted
2 hours ago, Mucka said:

Yup, the old channel low scenario would cheer those grumpy Southerner's up. 

😁

The gem control run shows this, I think as we get nearer t0 this is a trend that will continue,

Just enough weak heights to get the jet far enough south.

This will turn a cold snap of 4-5 days into something more significant 

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Outdoors, Nature

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Art, Outdoors

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