Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

[Mike Poole]

Upgrades on the clusters too.  T120-T168:

Clusters 1 and 2 building a strong block.  Cluster 3 less so, but only 9 members.

T192-T240:

23 members go with the op in cluster 2, won’t all be quite as striking I’m sure and remember the UK is a small target.  The other cluster still collapses the ridge.  

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

The next hurdle to overcome will be seeing if a west based fader can be avoided...i.e pressure pulling too far NW and heights eroding.

I suspect we may actually see a more resilient pressure rise to our NW which allows us to remain cold (with low heights continually being pushed down through the country from the N/NE). All conjecture right now though. 

Edited February 27, 2023 by CreweCold

[Bricriu]

7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Completely agree.  In my opinion, this is the effect of the SSW that has been hinted at over the last week in the ensembles etc. coming into sharp relief on the best op models.

If anyone comes on here and tries to claim that the above is being modelled due to the MJO farting about near the COD in phase 7, they need to take a look at themselves!

I would agree, it seems the perfect imprint on the trop of the most recent warming in the Strat. Which also shows its a quick qtr. Let's hope this run has broad support and we can count it down now. 

[Nick2373]

Seems people are get excited more so for the North, further South you go it’s not nailed, looking like something colder from the 5th to the 7th then above or close to average. The charts being pushed to the forefront are indeed dream charts and are they quite literally dreaming charts. Those rain spikes have been around a few days now along with the close to average temperatures remember trends tend to pan out. 

[minus10]

Well whatever happens that ecm run is 'real gone kid' stuff...incredible..

..as @Mucka said earlier that is some straight line!!

..the anom pretty staggering as well..

...onto the clusters Mike ...should be interesting...

Edit...see Mikes already posted...sorry..

Edited February 27, 2023 by minus10

[Stuie]

4 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

However:

The red box indicates days 10-15, which aren't shown on the other graphic. Looks a bit different when you see this.

Very nice, North then NE. 

[seabreeze86]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The next hurdle to overcome will be seeing if a west based fader can be avoided...i.e pressure pulling too far NW and heights eroding.

I suspect we may actually see a more resilient pressure rise to our NW which allows us to remain cold (with low heights continually being pushed down through the country from the N/NE). All conjecture right now though. 

Yeah the amplification has accelerated massively in the last 24 hours we now need it to slow, as we don’t want to overshoot that’s my only worry 

[Nick2373]

1 minute ago, minus10 said:

Well whatever happens that ecm run is 'real gone kid' stuff...incredible..

..as @Mucka said earlier that is some straight line!!

..the anom pretty staggering as well..

...onto the clusters Mike ...should be interesting...

And that’s the worry with a chart like that it’s to perfect. 

[Bricriu]

If it does go west based in the end, hopefully with cold air entrenched, we get the mother of all snowy breakdowns- something that makes storm Emma look minor! 

[damianslaw]

14 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

I would agree, it seems the perfect imprint on the trop of the most recent warming in the Strat. Which also shows its a quick qtr. Let's hope this run has broad support and we can count it down now. 

There are strong echos with the ECM model and its handle of the SSW imprint affect and what happened in 2018, on the last occasion there was a quick trop response and a long fetch easterly, this time we have a cross polar flow northerly - temps and uppers not as extreme as 2018, but strong parallels in many respects. In 2018 we had a week of very cold weather, and atlantic attack from the SW then reverting to mild atlantic, before a second easterly attack. Not saying we will see a similiar scenario, just interesting to note.

[Rain All Night]

While I've got the Pritt stick out, here are some highlights of the EC46 continuing from this morning's EPS 00z... hopefully old hat now..!

 

[EML Network]

24 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Completely agree.  In my opinion, this is the effect of the SSW that has been hinted at over the last week in the ensembles etc. coming into sharp relief on the best op models.

If anyone comes on here and tries to claim that the above is being modelled due to the MJO farting about near the COD in phase 7, they need to take a look at themselves!

Thats the funniest comment Ive seen on here in a while.

I'd rather exect though it was the herring as opposed to the cod

[Snowy L]

6 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

While I've got the Pritt stick out, here are some highlights of the EC46 continuing from this morning's EPS 00z... hopefully old hat now..!

 

What does ATR (purple bars) mean on the top right chart?

[Rain All Night]

Just now, Snowy L said:

What does ATR (purple bars) mean on the top right chart?

Atlantic Ridge. The definitions are here:

[minus10]

5 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

While I've got the Pritt stick out, here are some highlights of the EC46 continuing from this morning's EPS 00z... hopefully old hat now..!

 

After showing positive NAO coming back there are signs if i am reading it correctly of it not lasting that long with the negative NAO gaining ground again ...interesting..

...also its not often you see an (almost) cross polar black hole being shown...

[Cheshire Freeze]

21 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

 we don’t want to overshoot that’s my only worry 

The means are showing this scenario at present, both the EC ens and GEFS are showing a fairly rapid fade of the -NAO at the moment- so it's on the table. We  just have to hope we can see the ops begin to prolong the blocking episode as we get closer to T0

[LRD]

3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

.  Enjoy hope it goes well

 

BFTP

I might be cheering on cold* (or at least something interesting, at least) if it wasn't for my plans but not this time

 

 

 

*although cold is never the same if it doesn't happen between early/mid Dec-early/mid Feb

Edited February 27, 2023 by LRD

[seabreeze86]

The ECM op and control on the same page 

[syed2878]

Not a bad looking ECM in my eyes I would say it is very similar to UKMO ECM 46 would be very interesting tonight

[feb1991blizzard]

big improvement on eps (if your looking for cold that is)

[minus10]

Pretty solid support on eps from 5th to 10th ..

[Frigid]

2 hours ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

got a feeling the ECM is going to be brilliant later...if its similar to the UKMO expect a prolonged spell of cold,with heights continuing to build particuarly across the canada area.

You got a crystal ball mate?  

Some great discussions here, and WOW what an ECM! I won't get too excited but it's looking pretty good so far 

Ens are an upgrade as well.

12z:

00z:

Great developments, hope GFS can follow.. 

[Bricriu]

If I may ask where is the poster chino these days. I thought he would be all over this SSW. Also where is Nick Sussex? It's  really encouraging  the ECM op and Control are in sync, allied with the UKMO update, it certainly would give you a bit more confidence that the GFS is barking up the wrong tree here. 

Edited February 27, 2023 by Bricriu

[minus10]

5 minutes ago, Frigid said:

You got a crystal ball mate?  

Some great discussions here, and WOW what an ECM! I won't get too excited but it's looking pretty good so far 

Ens are an upgrade as well.

12z:

00z:

Great developments, hope GFS can follow.. 

....GFS 18z..

[sebastiaan1973]

 

"Consider 27th of february as the start date. When we take a look in the literature, we see this picture by Baldwin. The composite of weak vortex events. 

In 10-12 days after the start date [27th of february], we see less downwelling. Perhaps we see this too in the EC NAO forecast. First we have a negative NAO, around 11 of march it will become positive. When we fellow the picture of Baldwin, this will period will be short. After negative NAO, round the end of march again positive NAO, turning negative in april.  

Perhaps this is a guideline for things to come." 

 

First of all. Little akward to quote yourself  

EC46 is showing the pattern described above.