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Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

Cheshire Freeze

By Cheshire Freeze
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please keep your posts to discussing the model output in this thread, and for more general winter weather chat please use the Spring chat, moans and ramps thread.

The model highlights thread is also available for a more concise view of the model discussions. 

Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
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Posted (edited)

Boom boom - 192 will be epic - should be epic all the way to day 10 looking at that block 

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Edited by Ali1977
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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

Nice classic split

ECH1-168.GIF?27-0

Artic trough and those purples pushing SW toward the UK, very cold unstable air inbound behind that "warm" sector.

Edited by Mucka
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EML Network Rising Star

EML Network

Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
Posted

Best chart of the entire winter ! and its at 168. no way this isn't going to be an outlier though surely !

Cant wait to see the next 2 timestamps

ECM1-168.gif

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted

We could be on the cusp of a significant victory to UKMO, it has been a while since we have been able to say that. GFS is now looking very isolated.

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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted (edited)

That`s far enough for now, good effort ECM.

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You have to expect the pacific ridging is down the PNA neg outlook. All feasible.

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Edited by Stuie
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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
Just now, Mike Poole said:

Blimey O’Reilly!

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That’ll work 😂😂😍

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

Anything post 96h is pretty much just, "what if" musings.

But sure is fun to see what if ECM...

ECH1-192.GIF?27-0

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

We could be on the cusp of a significant victory to UKMO, it has been a while since we have been able to say that. GFS is now looking very isolated.

Agreed but remember this? That was when it became interesting for me. Ukmo then picked up the baton. Dates not exactly the same but…..

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seabreeze86 Accomplished

seabreeze86

Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
Posted

This can’t come off it’s to perfect or can it 

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted
Just now, seabreeze86 said:

This can’t come off it’s to perfect or can it 

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Art, Outdoors

It is like someone took a ruler and perfectly dissected the Northern Hemisphere with it. Look how straight that line is. One for the archives if it comes off.

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Pembroke Dangler Aficionado

Pembroke Dangler

Posted
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in winter Warm Sunny Summer
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
Posted
1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Anything post 96h is pretty much just, "what if" musings.

But sure is fun to see what if ECM...

ECH1-192.GIF?27-0

This looks a perfect fit for the recent displacement of the pv over to our side of the northern hemisphere, you can see the imprint by looking how perfect a line there is running cross polar to our little islands just wow 🤩 

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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Mucka said:

It is like someone took a ruler and perfectly dissected the Northern Hemisphere with it. Look how straight that line is. One for the archives if it comes off.

This is my bit of the pizza, here`s yours...

Edited by Stuie
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damianslaw Maestro

damianslaw

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted
2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Agreed but remember this? That was when it became interesting for me. Ukmo then picked up the baton. Dates not exactly the same but…..

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Outdoors, Art, Nature

Thanks for this is this another of case of the GFS spotting the trend then ditching it whilst others latch on then comes around when appears in reliable...we shall see.. the ECM output 168-192 hrs one of those cases I hear people saying 'if only a month ago', alas still early enough in the season to produce deep seated instability cold. I wonder if today's second SSW is imprinting on the models - would suggest a significant trop response.. a classic cross polar flow, feet firmly on the ground still until such an evolution appears in the 72 hr timeframe..

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

WOW - the METO update certainly suggested the block holding 

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
  • Popular Post
Posted

ECH1-216.GIF?27-0ECH0-216.GIF?27-0

S N O W M A G E D D O N

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EML Network Rising Star

EML Network

Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
Posted
4 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Agreed but remember this? That was when it became interesting for me. Ukmo then picked up the baton. Dates not exactly the same but…..

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Outdoors, Art, Nature

I think you might have to change your user name to THAT ECM 2023 😂😊👍

or something along those lines, god only kmows how cold that would be if it was a January chart at the surface.

If this gets any support from its other member runs though ill eat my hat.

we can dream though 😊 what a fascinating day its been.

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