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Please keep your posts to discussing the model output in this thread, and for more general winter weather chat please use the Spring chat, moans and ramps thread.

The model highlights thread is also available for a more concise view of the model discussions. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

Nice classic split

ECH1-168.GIF?27-0

Artic trough and those purples pushing SW toward the UK, very cold unstable air inbound behind that "warm" sector.

Edited by Mucka
  • Like 6
Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted

A few -9s in there at T168 🥶

Could contain: Chart, Plot

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
Posted

Best chart of the entire winter ! and its at 168. no way this isn't going to be an outlier though surely !

Cant wait to see the next 2 timestamps

ECM1-168.gif

  • Like 7
Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted

We could be on the cusp of a significant victory to UKMO, it has been a while since we have been able to say that. GFS is now looking very isolated.

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted (edited)

That`s far enough for now, good effort ECM.

Could contain: Art, Graphics, Accessories, Outdoors

You have to expect the pacific ridging is down the PNA neg outlook. All feasible.

Could contain: Chart, Plot

Edited by Stuie
  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
Just now, Mike Poole said:

Blimey O’Reilly!

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Art, Outdoors

That’ll work 😂😂😍

  • Like 6
Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

Anything post 96h is pretty much just, "what if" musings.

But sure is fun to see what if ECM...

ECH1-192.GIF?27-0

  • Like 7
Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

We could be on the cusp of a significant victory to UKMO, it has been a while since we have been able to say that. GFS is now looking very isolated.

Agreed but remember this? That was when it became interesting for me. Ukmo then picked up the baton. Dates not exactly the same but…..

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Outdoors, Art, Nature

  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
Posted

This can’t come off it’s to perfect or can it 

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Art, Outdoors

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
Posted
9 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

This can’t come off it’s to perfect or can it 

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Art, Outdoors

It would rival anything gone before such as 2010 and 2018!!

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted
Just now, seabreeze86 said:

This can’t come off it’s to perfect or can it 

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Art, Outdoors

It is like someone took a ruler and perfectly dissected the Northern Hemisphere with it. Look how straight that line is. One for the archives if it comes off.

  • Like 9
Posted
  • Location: Basingstoke
  • Location: Basingstoke
Posted
Just now, January Snowstorm said:

It would rival anything gone before such as 2010 and 2018!!

It wouldn’t. 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
  • Insightful 1
Posted
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in winter Warm Sunny Summer
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
Posted
1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Anything post 96h is pretty much just, "what if" musings.

But sure is fun to see what if ECM...

ECH1-192.GIF?27-0

This looks a perfect fit for the recent displacement of the pv over to our side of the northern hemisphere, you can see the imprint by looking how perfect a line there is running cross polar to our little islands just wow 🤩 

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Mucka said:

It is like someone took a ruler and perfectly dissected the Northern Hemisphere with it. Look how straight that line is. One for the archives if it comes off.

This is my bit of the pizza, here`s yours...

Edited by Stuie
  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted
2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Agreed but remember this? That was when it became interesting for me. Ukmo then picked up the baton. Dates not exactly the same but…..

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Outdoors, Art, Nature

Thanks for this is this another of case of the GFS spotting the trend then ditching it whilst others latch on then comes around when appears in reliable...we shall see.. the ECM output 168-192 hrs one of those cases I hear people saying 'if only a month ago', alas still early enough in the season to produce deep seated instability cold. I wonder if today's second SSW is imprinting on the models - would suggest a significant trop response.. a classic cross polar flow, feet firmly on the ground still until such an evolution appears in the 72 hr timeframe..

  • Like 6
Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

WOW - the METO update certainly suggested the block holding 

Could contain: Art, Graphics, Outdoors, Accessories, Nature

  • Like 8
Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
Posted
4 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Agreed but remember this? That was when it became interesting for me. Ukmo then picked up the baton. Dates not exactly the same but…..

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Outdoors, Art, Nature

I think you might have to change your user name to THAT ECM 2023 😂😊👍

or something along those lines, god only kmows how cold that would be if it was a January chart at the surface.

If this gets any support from its other member runs though ill eat my hat.

we can dream though 😊 what a fascinating day its been.

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
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