Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

Looks average to me and a considerably less amplified gfs at same point. Let's see where gfs goes

You don’t want it too amplified, otherwise the HP will retrogress too far and we’ll end up with the Atlantic steaming back in.

[Ali1977]

Nothing average or slack about the UKMO, great chart moving fwd and 168 should be epic. 

[seabreeze86]

I really have no idea what to make of this looks a right mess 

[Lukesluckybunch]

4 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Looks average to me and a considerably less amplified gfs at same point. Let's see where gfs goes

to me its good..looks like the high will spread even further northwest by looking at that chart..im expecting 168 to be excellent

[Guest]

Just now, seabreeze86 said:

I really have no idea what to make of this looks a right mess 

Trigger low sliding southeast ready to open the door to the Arctic perhaps, but hopefully not?

[Mr Marky Marky]

18 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

ukmo 144 fantastic 

Certainly is and much better than the Guffus  at the same timeframe .

Edited February 27, 2023 by Mark wheeler

[Cheshire Freeze]

UKMO and ICON are infinitely better than the GFS. The GFS sinks part of the block back SE, without clean retrogression. Not what we want to see.

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

I really have no idea what to make of this looks a right mess 

agree gfs looks like it has no idea!

[Mr Marky Marky]

Just now, CreweCold said:

UKMO and ICON are infinitely better than the GFS. The GFS sinks part of the block back SE, without clean retrogression. Not what we want to see.

It would just be our luck that GFS pulls a rabbit from the hat after all the paths it has led us up all year .

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

UKMO and ICON are infinitely better than the GFS. The GFS sinks part of the block back SE, without clean retrogression. Not what we want to see.

absolutely crewe..problem with the gfs its shifted everything further east..heights dont build cleanly.

[Bricriu]

Let's hope the ECM backs the UKMO, otherwise we know that there will be a back track from the UKMO. 

[Guest]

Heights draining rapidly from northern latitudes by 192 hrs on the GFS for whatever its worth (which isn't much at all):

[ICE COLD]

Gem 12z looking good at T138

[Mucka]

Should be a good GEM, core heights further NW, low pressure further S

Edited February 27, 2023 by Mucka

[Mr Marky Marky]

Gem looks poised to my eye at 144 hrs 

Edit @Mucka@icecold

3 gem posts in a minute. Things must be looking up.

Edited February 27, 2023 by Mark wheeler

[Battleground Snow]

Gem not doing a GFS on us.

Gfs puts pressure on the block because it blows up a low which prevents the high moving north 

[seabreeze86]

GEM much improved on the 0z 

[Cheshire Freeze]

I wouldn’t be putting any money on a GFS op, that’s for sure. You’d be bankrupt by the end of March.

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Mark wheeler said:

Gem looks poised to my eye at 144 hrs 

yes heights draining away from iberia area..and the vortex ready to drop down being the main player!

[london-snow]

To me the ukmo has been leading the way over the past 48hrs just slight variety on the themes. Where as gfs has been generally all over the shop. 

[Ali1977]

GEM at 168

[Cloud 10]

Gem is a gem.

 

[Guest]

GEM quite different from its 00z output.  This is a long, long way from being resolved and I wouldn't put any weight on any output beyond T+120 regardless of what it shows.

[alexisj9]

4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Gem not doing a GFS on us.

Gfs puts pressure on the block because it blows up a low which prevents the high moving north 

GFS will weaken that low when it gets to day three or four, been standard this year, for it to over do a key low. What caused the phantom easterly. Why it had the tropical storm to far north in December, etc, etc.

[Mucka]

Fingers at the ready for the UKMO 168

First poster wins the Golden Finger