Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

[Cloud 10]

Nice animation showing the strength of the reverse winds currently occuring in the stratosphere.

 

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-2.93,84.73,512

[Rain All Night]

The precipitation charts from the late stages of the UKMO, for what they may be worth, don't show much snow:

The GEM is a little more charitable!

Edited February 27, 2023 by RainAllNight

[Lukesluckybunch]

got a feeling the ECM is going to be brilliant later...if its similar to the UKMO expect a prolonged spell of cold,with heights continuing to build particuarly across the canada area.

[Lukesluckybunch]

19 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

The precipitation charts from the late stages of the UKMO, for what they may be worth, don't show much snow:

The GEM is a little more charitable!

scattered snow showers england and wales..more frequent northern scotland

[Guest]

20 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

The precipitation charts from the late stages of the UKMO, for what they may be worth, don't show much snow:

That doesn't surprise me...it will be early March so much stronger solar input. We need to be realistic about things.

[seabreeze86]

1 minute ago, Tidal Wave said:

That doesn't surprise me...it will be early March so much stronger solar input. We need to be realistic about things.

There’s a slice of above average dew points on this run that’s why it’s showing as rain. Snowing in the North Sea 

Not that it really matters this far out 

[Nick2373]

GFS at 120 looks like a toppler to be honest 

[Battleground Snow]

Control run on the gem is even better than the OP believe it or not, and the mean has a robust block too.

 

[alexisj9]

9 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:

GFS at 120 looks like a toppler to be honest 

And that's what it sort of does. 

[Nick2373]

Just now, alexisj9 said:

And that's what it sort of does. 

Add in the jet stream it’s going to cause a South North spilt, it will allow some moisture in and then the usual cravats apply. Snow up North high elevation South and rain to low levels. No super cold snowy conditions for everyone 

[alexisj9]

2 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:

Add in the jet stream it’s going to cause a South North spilt, it will allow some moisture in and then the usual cravats apply. Snow up North high elevation South and rain to low levels. No super cold snowy conditions for everyone 

So far that's just the GFS this 12z run though, other runs look better. 

[Nick2373]

5 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

So far that's just the GFS this 12z run though, other runs look better. 

The Jet stream in its current position won’t allow the cold to push down further southwards, the North will see the coldest conditions temps around and the South on average for this time of the year 8-9c 

[alexisj9]

3 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:

The Jet stream in its current position won’t allow the cold to push down further southwards, the North will see the coldest conditions temps around and the South on average for this time of the year 8-9c 

To be fair it's a northerly in march, I don't expect it to reach below the m4 with anything meaningful, unless the jet drops under. We'll see in a few days where that might be, as some suites do have it further south. So the position of the jet, is still to be determined.

[Mucka]

ECM 120 much better than GFS Op, so there is that

 

 

[ICE COLD]

ECM more robust with the block compared to yesterdays 12z run

[Ali1977]

T120, this run is going to be a good one the Hp is wider and extends further north 

[Ali1977]

UPGRADE

 

Much better block 

Edited February 27, 2023 by Ali1977

[ICE COLD]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

UPGRADE

Definitely an upgrade Ali

[damianslaw]

Someone pointed out differences in the position, depth and alignment of the atlantic trough - GFS shows a more positively tilted feature at the 96hr range this interacts with heights and hence we don't see a push NW sufficient to allow the northely plunge, conversely, UKMO shows a less robust and negatively aligned trough digging further south as well and this allows heights to build NW and the northerly to pounce. ECM looks to be aligning with the UKMO at the 96-120 hr timeframe... the GFS continues to show very varied output.. 

One of those classic scenarios when the UKMO and ECM side together against a more progressive GFS at the crucial 96-120 hr timeframe.. seen it happen many a time before, a GFS climbdown quite probable but not inevitable..

[Lukesluckybunch]

ECM is look good...really good

[That ECM]

Sometimes it takes time for things to take shape.

[seabreeze86]

ECM much stronger blocking the APERGE looks much stronger with it also 

[Cloud 10]

Sunday morning ECM 12z.

 

[ICE COLD]

WALLOP

[Snowman.]

 

 

Not bad!