Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,charts at last beginning to follow the same path hold on to your hats a strong north/northeast Arctic blast with snow on the agenda let’s hope the chopping and changing every day is coming to an end let’s follow the yellow brick road or should that be white brick road.

[mulzy]

3 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Icon will say no precipitation . Blimey I only went an hour and it's gone mental in here , great stuff . 
 

what a great ECM but also all hail the nearly MIGHTY Navgem, its not to bad afterall tonight.

Glad the NAVGEM is on board!

[LRD]

3 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Icon will say no precipitation . Blimey I only went an hour and it's gone mental in here , great stuff . 
 

what a great ECM but also all hail the nearly MIGHTY Navgem, its not to bad afterall tonight.

not for me. A bit of slush that h

Better a mild outlier , as you say it's hard to get lying snow in March so the colder the better .

Nah, not for me Clive

[Mark wheeler]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

ECM is far better then this..as it had no signs of the atlantic breaking through..i think that cold shown on the navgem would be shortlived

Oh absolutely ECM all day but it's great to see the cold trend growing and the mildies ( for once ) will be hopefully straw clutching soon. Hopefully . 

[london-snow]

As stated earlier ukmo to me has been smelling the impact on the affects from the ssw over the past few days and if anything upgrading as we are counting down. Great ecm let’s hope we can get counting down now and a firm up on the broader picture. 

[Rain All Night]

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

No support from pros ? Have you read the metoffice long range forecast ?or watched the videos on their site ? Or did you see the Meteogroup long range on countryfile ?  Which pros are you referring to?

You missed his word, when.

Edited February 27, 2023 by That ECM

[January Snowstorm]

This evening we have taken a significant step towards a wintry outlook. The gfs is very isolated now with the rest going very cold!

Nice to see the Met Office on board too. They mention possibility of disruptive snow next week where both air masses meet. They wouldn't say that unless they really favour it!

Odds on now for cold and snow, it would be great if we could count it down without any hiccups!

[andymusic]

SEVERE COLD and COPIOUOS amounts of SNOW - WHITE GOLD will be here in WALES CYMRU very very soon according to the GFS/ECM/GEM/NAVGEM etc etc etc - GET WAXING THEM SLEDGES - SKIS AND BOOTS AT THE READY - THE GRAIGERHORN WILL BE OPEN FOR SKIING VERY SHORTLY (or for silly buggers in their cars to turn over onto their roofs and lose their axels, you won't catch me going up and down the Graigerhorn in a veichle once the snow and ice is down - NO B****y WAY LOL) - MY HUSKY Gracie will be biting at the bit to get out in the conditions - HUSKY WEATHERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR LOL! OOOOOOOOWOOOOOO! Down boy lol!

[LRD]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

No support from pros ? Have you read the metoffice long range forecast ?or watched the videos on their site ? Or did you see the Meteogroup long range on countryfile ?  Which pros are you referring to?

Think you need to re-read my post mate before piling on

[Mark wheeler]

Clear downward trend on uppers for London on mogreps ( great ) then some scatter, the saga will roll on .

[EML Network]

JEM heading in a similar direction. IF the GFS jumps on board were all going to be looking at how far south these systems off the Atlantic will go.

but were not at that stage just yet.

interesting that of all models it was the GEM that was the first to throw this scenario out there as a possible evolution !

 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

The Metoffice don't tend to mention the risk of 'disruptive snow' without being fairly confident that it could occur.

We just have to wait and see how this pans out over the next couple of days or so. There will still be twists and turns in the modelling.

My thoughts are that the operationals are starting to get a better grip on downwelling from the SSW, so I'm leaning towards the modelling firming up on cold as we go forward, rather than downgrading the chances. We'll see.

[LRD]

10 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Clear downward trend on uppers for London on mogreps ( great ) then some scatter, the saga will roll on .

Yep. The Leeds graph (that's where my personal interest lies for the weekend 10th-12th) shows some pretty cold runs but most return to above the -5 850 line after the 7th

Edited February 27, 2023 by LRD

[Lukesluckybunch]

think the most impressive thing about that ECM run was the block over greenland..the first time in recent days we have seen it so stubborn in that area!it really helps.

[Chesil View]

Crikey. So that nice repeating sliding low scenario that the gfs picked up late last week is now the ecms favoured outcome. 

 

[Stuie]

9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The Metoffice don't tend to mention the risk of 'disruptive snow' without being fairly confident that it could occur.

We just have to wait and see how this pans out over the next couple of days or so. There will still be twists and turns in the modelling.

My thoughts are that the operationals are starting to get a better grip on downwelling from the SSW, so I'm leaning towards the modelling firming up on cold as we go forward, rather than downgrading the chances. We'll see.

Remember Michael Fish circa 1987?

[January Snowstorm]

15 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The Metoffice don't tend to mention the risk of 'disruptive snow' without being fairly confident that it could occur.

We just have to wait and see how this pans out over the next couple of days or so. There will still be twists and turns in the modelling.

My thoughts are that the operationals are starting to get a better grip on downwelling from the SSW, so I'm leaning towards the modelling firming up on cold as we go forward, rather than downgrading the chances. We'll see.

Very much agree with this. I think the models are finally grasping the significant SSW that occurred and its knock on effects. The only negative is its heading for second week of March which I think should still be overcome by the fact that it's deep cold. Time will tell

[Cold Winter Night]

The 12z EPS follows the Op with colder Days 7-10.
These complex SSW could be a time for the high resolution run to shine against its ensembles.

This is De Bilt in Holland, but it's true for UK locations as well.

The extended holds on to that warmup, but that's all even more uncertain than otherwise.

[Rain All Night]

18 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

However:

The red box indicates days 10-15, which aren't shown on the other graphic. Looks a bit different when you see this.

[Lukesluckybunch]

guys the ECM mean is fantastic!

Edited February 27, 2023 by Lukesluckybunch
adding

[Mike Poole]

12 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The Metoffice don't tend to mention the risk of 'disruptive snow' without being fairly confident that it could occur.

We just have to wait and see how this pans out over the next couple of days or so. There will still be twists and turns in the modelling.

My thoughts are that the operationals are starting to get a better grip on downwelling from the SSW, so I'm leaning towards the modelling firming up on cold as we go forward, rather than downgrading the chances. We'll see.

Completely agree.  In my opinion, this is the effect of the SSW that has been hinted at over the last week in the ensembles etc. coming into sharp relief on the best op models.

If anyone comes on here and tries to claim that the above is being modelled due to the MJO farting about near the COD in phase 7, they need to take a look at themselves!

[Rain All Night]

4 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

guys the ECM mean is fantastic!

Edited February 27, 2023 by RainAllNight

[london-snow]

7 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

guys the ECM mean is fantastic!

Care to post a chart? 

[winterof79]

55 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Day 10 and what a run 

Oh no its western based