Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Much more precip around on this run

losing them cold uppers though particuarly in the south its taking the long route in dropping that trough down from the northeast..colder further north and as you said mentioned snow midlands northwards

[mountain shadow]

Just now, Updated_Weather said:

GFS & UKMO at 120hrs!

Big difference in Low Pressure placement making a big difference to who gets snow and who doesn't.

[Ali1977]

Cold air digging in as night arrives - this would be very good if correct. It’s not supported looking at the UKMO so it’s just one scenario !!

I wouldn’t get much sleep if this happened 

[ICE COLD]

UKMO 144

[Captain Shortwave]

Quite a difference at day 5, the UKMO has a clean northerly with showers pushing south, the GFS develops a low over the U.K. that raises the risk/reward factor by bring more organised precipitation along with less cold air.

[seabreeze86]

Aside from the what’s going on over the UK the block just that bit stronger and more east on the GFS

[sheikhy]

Massive improvement on ukmo 12z at 144 hours compared to its 168 hour chart from yesterday!!!!low is sliding and the snowy weather continues!!

[Updated_Weather]

GFS 144 + UKMO 144

Such amazing output!

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

UKMO 144

Must be plenty of snow events in that chart - so far great 12z’s

[ICE COLD]

UKMO 850s cold all the way 120 and 144 

[lawrenk]

9 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

Nationwide snow on the 12z GFS another scenario thrown in 

Can anyone help point out where the M4 is please?

[Captain Shortwave]

850s out for the UKMO, given a northerly flow I suspect areas close to windward coasts would see plenty of showers blowing in on that northerly.

   
 

Day 6 is probably drier (possible home grown showers), but that Atlantic system is waiting to move across the south.

[Bartlett High]

1 minute ago, lawrenk said:

Can anyone help point out where the M4 is please?

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

850s out for the UKMO, given a northerly flow I suspect areas close to windward coasts would see plenty of showers blowing in on that northerly.

   
 

Day 6 is probably drier (possible home grown showers), but that Atlantic system is waiting to move across the south.

the following times will be interesting after 144..maybe a chance of the atlantic coming in looking at that

Edited March 2, 2023 by Lukesluckybunch
adding

[scottishandy]

2 minutes ago, lawrenk said:

Can anyone help point out where the M4 is please?

 

About where the snow changes to rain on this pic 

[Stuie]

1 minute ago, Captain Shortwave said:

850s out for the UKMO, given a northerly flow I suspect areas close to windward coasts would see plenty of showers blowing in on that northerly.

   
 

Day 6 is probably drier (possible home grown showers), but that Atlantic system is waiting to move across the south.

Noticed the hint of a channel LP across some models.  Maybe feasible?

[Updated_Weather]

3 minutes ago, lawrenk said:

Can anyone help point out where the M4 is please?

 

[ICE COLD]

Add gem 12z to the wintry mix

T114 

[Ali1977]

GEM has much more moisture about too 

[Mark wheeler]

Gem 120

[Updated_Weather]

Does seem the Atlantic seems to loose strength?
We could potentially be seeing the extension of cold.

Have models underestimated the block?

[MJB]

Battleground time 

[nick sussex]

The UKMO has a cleaner evolution in terms of getting the cold south compared to the GFS .

Both have a Channel low day 6 . Those are a total pain to forecast !

[Rain All Night]

GFS and GEM up to day 7:

Edited March 2, 2023 by RainAllNight

[MJB]

Quite different to the 6z - Atlantic steamrollers in

Snow on the leading edge 

I wonder if it will sit in situ before retreating 

Edited March 2, 2023 by MJB