Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

[Stuie]

16 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Really after a couple of runs and completely at loggerheads with the recent met update! 

No precipitation? There are several warnings in force for Sunday onwards..this place really does leave me scratching my head.

Yep, pretty much why I posted this morning about having a punt for the LP`s. Worrying about exact placements of a LP on Wednesday or Thursday and it`s only Saturday is baffling.

[mountain shadow]

Did we really just spend 6 weeks chasing a SSW for it to deliver a couple of days of coastal wintry showers?

 

[Ali1977]

8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

 

The ENS shift the feature south too , I was confident somewhere would get hit - the GEM needs some ECM backing

The mean precip Charts into Thursday (the day that the snow was initially expected) still shows a battleground scenario 

[alexisj9]

39 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Substantial shift south of the low on the 12z GFS.

The low barely even exists. Pretty sure we can expect this trend to continue, increasingly likely it'll run south of the UK and miss entirely.

I'm not so sure about the east snd west movement soclose in the Atlantic, we might find none of the west moving lows develop. Guess we'll see 

[Chesil View]

Lots of knee jerk reactions in here this evening. Anyone calling such an uncertain situation this evening is being  rather silly really.

Let it play out you may be surprised.

[NewEra21]

7 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

The last 12 months have been slack meteorologicaly, so it should come as no surprise that anything dynamic has been watered down.

I just feel a lot of people have been  distracted by the bigger carrot with the so called chance of bigger snow events from the Atlantic.

The initial northerly was key to getting showers and features running down the country and giving lots of snow opportunities before even needing to look to the Atlantic. 

[Weather-history]

Notable that the -5 line is further south on the GFS 12z mean compared to the 06z and 0z runs for 0z Wednesday

[TSNWK]

5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Did we really just spend 6 weeks chasing a SSW for it to deliver a couple of days of coastal wintry showers?

 

Modernised winter get used to it....

Edited March 4, 2023 by TSNWK
.

[Bricriu]

28 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Really after a couple of runs and completely at loggerheads with the recent met update! 

No precipitation? There are several warnings in force for Sunday onwards..this place really does leave me scratching my head.

You need to bear in mind is  he posting from an imby perspective, I imagine. He is not going to see snow in his location based on these runs. I do agree that some places will see snow next week, but it looks quite likely most of us will be dry and then go milder  by the weekend. Its just a pity we could not have the Greenland High boxed in then we would not have to concern ourselves with these pesky systems. I had a feeling the first system would go too far south, but when they keep coming it's usually bad news. 

Edited March 4, 2023 by Bricriu

[January Snowstorm]

Just a couple of positive thoughts:

- The initial surge of Northerly flow is trending colder again with minus 8s across a swathe of the country. The conciding ppn on Monday night may well fall as snow.

- The trend of moving everything South is happening quicker than we could have expected. If that trend continues we will be back in the game with the initial Northerly getting more potent.

So a disappointing set of runs but still a glimmer for short term upgrades 

[January Snowstorm]

9 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

You need to bear in mind is  he posting from an imby perspective, I imagine. He is not going to see snow in his location based on these runs. I do agree that some places will see snow next week, but it looks quite likely most of us will go milder now by the weekend. Its just a pity we could not have the Greenland High boxed in then we would not have to concern ourselves with pesky systems. I had a feeling the first system would go too far south, but when they keep coming it's usually bad news. 

Erm 90% of the country looks dry!

[Polar Maritime]

Can we please stop the tit for tat. It really isn't constructive or pleasent reading.

Edited March 4, 2023 by Polar Maritime

[Tim Bland]

7 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

10-15 day event.  Yes widespread snow.  Still lots to be played out in FI

 

 

 

BFTP

Looking forward to seeing the charts to back this up? 

[cold snap]

11 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Did we really just spend 6 weeks chasing a SSW for it to deliver a couple of days of coastal wintry showers?

 

Looks that way

[Bricriu]

2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Erm 90% of the country looks dry!

It's one set of runs, and as you admitted it could change. I still think there maybe be surprises next week in terms of who gets snow fall, but it does look like it will get milder towards next weekend that seems a fairly consistent trend across the models

[The PIT]

A lot of swapping and changing still going on so suggest FI land begins in the middle of next week. So I wouldn't get sad or happy yet when viewing the charts.

[Ali1977]

Not sure if this is been posted, but the fax charts look great for a battleground scenario heading our way Wednesday night  - add that to the GEM, ICOM and METO update everything is still Game on for some . 

A0151C8D-0446-4DD8-A1DC-BCCEAA11CE54.webp

Edited March 4, 2023 by Ali1977

[mountain shadow]

6 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

It’s what happens when something is hyped up without context and without taking other factors into account. Don’t expect people to learn from it, though. 

I'm not sure anything was hyped. Many, many runs were showing fairly widespread snow.

Now, just as we enter the fairly reliable, the widespread snow has disappeared like, well, like sna' aff a dyke. 

[Mcconnor8]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Not sure if this is been posted, but the fax charts look great for a battleground scenario heading our way Wednesday night  - add that to the GEM, ICOM and METO update everything is still Game on for some . 

A0151C8D-0446-4DD8-A1DC-BCCEAA11CE54.webp 150.78 kB · 5 downloads

Isnt that yesterday's chart? Wonder if it will be much more South today

[Tim Bland]

16 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

I just feel a lot of people have been  distracted by the bigger carrot with the so called chance of bigger snow events from the Atlantic.

The initial northerly was key to getting showers and features running down the country and giving lots of snow opportunities before even needing to look to the Atlantic. 

I can’t see much in the way of snow showers running down in the northerly on runs this afternoon? Perhaps a few flakes here and there but not amounting to anything?  Only glimmer of hope is the GEM this afternoon 

[Scandinavian High.]

Any chance of an easterly setting up anytime soon theses northerly’s are boring me.

[IDO]

9 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

No sense of inevitability about anything at the moment!  An alternative hypothesis might be that the only reason heights are pushing into Iberia is because of the dartboard low in the Atlantic that the models have got wrong from quite early in the run.

Even the 0z ECM has this Iberian ridge sector building and although that is clearly in response to up-flow activity, the trend is there, and consistent within the models. So, for me, a hiatus, hopefully for only 3-5 days from D6-7 as we see the Iberian heights build and then dissipate east. Mean at T156:

After D10 hopefully we will get another shot at cold. Although the GFS 12z is bad for cold after D7, but is just one run.

As for the trend to dive the lows south, that is looking more likely than not. So this wintry outbreak may again be more about cold temps for most rather than snow.

N.B. What the models are showing and not necessarily what will happen. 

[Tim Bland]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Not sure if this is been posted, but the fax charts look great for a battleground scenario heading our way Wednesday night  - add that to the GEM, ICOM and METO update everything is still Game on for some . 

A0151C8D-0446-4DD8-A1DC-BCCEAA11CE54.webp 150.78 kB · 13 downloads

What do you like about the icon looks mainly dry ?…

[NewEra21]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I can’t see much in the way of snow showers running down in the northerly on runs this afternoon? Perhaps a few flakes here and there but not amounting to anything?  Only glimmer of hope is the GEM this afternoon 

Yep, and that's my point. Initially the northerly was shown as being very convective with features running down the country. But that's been shortened and downgraded over the past few days, the flow gets cut off far too quickly now for anything to really get going.

[Ali1977]

12 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

What do you like about the icon looks mainly dry ?…

Nope , not for Thurs 

Edited March 4, 2023 by Ali1977