Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

Might be wishful thinking but is there a chance the snow line moves back south ? Look at the progression of the cold and how it stalls then shifts south ..

Yes definitely seems to be a theme to push the cold back Friday 

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Might be wishful thinking but is there a chance the snow line moves back south ? Look at the progression of the cold and how it stalls then shifts south ..

Then Saturdays System could be a snow make too - what a crazy week we have ahead !!

 

Theres a chance that somewhere get nailed with every system this week, but that could be anywhere!! 

Edited March 5, 2023 by Ali1977

[Tim Bland]

Snow Saturday across central parts lol 

[seabreeze86]

Two GFS runs in a row now that hammer Northern Ireland and northern England 

[sheikhy]

Well this is just total and utter chaos!!!!theres no way you can make a forecast even on the damn day as things stand!!my thinking at this rate is just pay attention to sat24 all week and view how far north or south everything is in real time lol!!

[StingJet]

Damn Fax charts have gone Awol after Wednesday 12z T72 .. grrrr I want to see Thursday and Friday's location of the troughs / cut off lows and weather fronts 

Edited March 5, 2023 by StingJet

[Ali1977]

Just now, StingJet said:

Damn Fax charts have gone Awol after Wednesday 12z T72

Probably because they have no idea what’s going on!! 

[Cloud 10]

That's quite some run from the 18z.

 

[Scott Ingham]

The nature of these disrupted lows has the very real possibility (especially with so much cloud cover associated with these lows) of one location really get fairly severe levels of snow if it stays on the cold side of the jet as thursdays system stalls and heads back south again towards saturday. What a fascinating week ahead! In the middle of winter this would be very 1947!

If you look at accumalation charts we have hardly any melting due to a lack of sunshine!

Absolutely fascinating and surely snow for almost everyone

Edited March 5, 2023 by Scott Ingham

[Snowy L]

Just now, StingJet said:

Damn Fax charts have gone Awol after Wednesday 12z T72

Met Office have given up too! One of the most bizarre periods of model watching I've ever witnessed. The fact we have a monster of an Iberian High yet we're still in with a shout of snow is pretty unheard of too.

[StingJet]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Probably because they have no idea what’s going on!! 

Funny you should say that Ali .. it appears always the case that when ever the synoptics are just slightly off piste .. perhaps in this case .. a damn HeliSki mission the charts get hung up ,, as you put it  "no idea what's going on!!"

[Ali1977]

I think even tomorrow night is causing a headache for the professionals, and they’ll be considering putting a warning out for snow in the south - but even that close they are struggling!! 

[seabreeze86]

The dew points are just ridiculously low on Wednesday don’t recall seeing them this low and this widespread very often 

[Met4Cast]

94hr FAX

Midlands absolutely pasted. 

[nick sussex]

Northern Scotland gets some sub -12 850s which is pretty amazing for March from the north .

If we can get a slack flow there and clear skies for several days over snow cover the March record could go.

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

94hr FAX

Midlands absolutely pasted. 

Im starting to think we may be on the cusp of a very memorable week snow wise.... just for who?!

[StingJet]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

94hr FAX

Midlands absolutely pasted. 

Thanks Met4Cast ... I think they must have heard me effing and blinding 

[geordiekev]

8 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Might be wishful thinking but is there a chance the snow line moves back south ? Look at the progression of the cold and how it stalls then shifts south ..

Everything is stalled, that's the issue, there's no normal West to East momentum. The amplified upstream pattern means the only variables in our part of the World is the cold being drawn West & then moving back East. If the systems in the u-bend are elongated we have a more of a horizontal flow & no SW forcing.

Because the systems aren't being warmed as is the norm by the Atlantic, it's a cluster...

Nerve racking but interesting

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

94hr FAX

Midlands absolutely pasted. 

Everywhere south of the front rain? North snow? ?
 

Obviously that line could shift but it seems like a good shout with all todays runs!! 

[alexisj9]

6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Probably because they have no idea what’s going on!! 

I certainly don't, never ever have I seen lows go east out of the UK, stall just before the states and come back again. No one has I would think. I wonder if in the end they keep going, away into the states, nothing would surprise me at this point.

[tight isobar]

Anyway- now we can start the snow plot assumptions!! If I lived Birmingham northward.... I’d be- becoming confident of ground accumulation... and probably notably so!!!

[The Enforcer]

4 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

94hr FAX

Midlands absolutely pasted. 

I can envisage that front appearing anywhere between the south coast and north of the border on subsequent faxes - and probably both extremes at some point.

[Ali1977]

Using the mean precip charts the Wed night system has most precip here!! 

 

Into Thursday the mean is defo firming up on the track compared to its last run - as in much less scatter of precip areas!! 

Edited March 5, 2023 by Ali1977

[Buzz]

2 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I certainly don't, never ever have I seen lows go east out of the UK, stall just before the states and come back again. No one has I would think. I wonder if in the end they keep going, away into the states, nothing would surprise me at this point.

East? Unless the lows are going the very long way around I think you mean West?

 

[nick sussex]

We just need an easterly or ne now to round off the excitement !