Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

[Mark wheeler]

Arome just rolling out . Now this is just ridiculous. Live radar comparison.

Aprege no better . This really is a radar watching event now . Little differences could be the difference between rain and snow .

Edited March 6, 2023 by Mark wheeler

[Lampostwatcher]

1 minute ago, Mark wheeler said:

Arome just rolling out . Now this is just ridiculous. Live radar comparison.

That's shocking

[Vortex3929]

1 minute ago, Liam Burge said:

It's always a now-cast situation with snow for England, especially with setups like this where a shift just 20-30 miles north/south can have big consequences/rewards for IMBY.

This is true. But even just the broader picture, the differences I find surprising at this range

[Nick F]

Just now, UKSnakey said:

Have the models ever struggled at such a short time frame? This is becoming a nowcast instead of a forecast if there's no agreement by the 06 runs

I'm sure they do fairly often with certain set-ups, this is not your usual zonal Atlantic stuff, plus we are more intensely scrutinising each run with snow involved than we would with rain.

In the warmer months, those that are interested in thunderstorms will often bemoan the models handling of areas of storms when they miss us, because models often struggle with simulating areas of convection.

[Met4Cast]

God this is getting tedious now. Absolutely no agreement on the models for tomorrow morning let alone Wednesday/Thursdays snow risk. Roll on summer where maybe we can get some decent modelling back! 

Nightmare to forecast at the moment.

[Rain All Night]

11 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Arome just rolling out . Now this is just ridiculous. Live radar comparison.

Aprege no better . This really is a radar watching event now . Little differences could be the difference between rain and snow .

Don't forget the times on those Meteociel charts are in French time 

[Mike Poole]

Hey, don’t give up on tonight!

GFS has developed a couple of small features and has snow for central southern England at T9:

[Man With Beard]

29 minutes ago, UKSnakey said:

Have the models ever struggled at such a short time frame? This is becoming a nowcast instead of a forecast if there's no agreement by the 06 runs

The amount of tooing and froing from the short term hi res models is mind boggling - each run quite different from the one before. Doesn't breed confidence!

In fact, I wonder if this is as close as they're going to get - it wouldn't surprise me at all if they're still shifting this much at T6. Lampposts and radar it is!

Edited March 6, 2023 by Man With Beard

[weirpig]

Arome also further south than its 12z run    Then the Alaro  which brings some places to standstill.  Ath this point both are just as likely to happen 

         

Edited March 6, 2023 by weirpig

[Ali1977]

Freezing Dew points are chasing down the precip now 

Edited March 6, 2023 by Ali1977

[Liam Burge]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Freezing Dew points are chasing down the precip now 

I wonder if some people could wake up with a surprise snow fall! Met predicting rain here with 2c.. Could I get lucky?!!?

[kold weather]

33 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Hey, don’t give up on tonight!

GFS has developed a couple of small features and has snow for central southern England at T9:

May snow, I'd be very surprised if anything settles below 200m however, it's mot that cold really and the ground is now pretty wet. Marginal snow probably isn't going to be enough outside maybe localised heavier bursts to do the job imo.

It's a reservation I also have for anything coming in during the day as per icon and to a lesser extent Arpege on Wednesday. Its likely coming in during late daylight hours and have rain preceding it until the heavier stuff arrives. Will be terrible conversion ratios and the models will overdo depth in such a situation.

[SilverWolf]

17 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Freezing Dew points are chasing down the precip now 

Been radar watching a bit this eve… more sleet/snow is showing over higher ground in Mid Wales, and that’s a big chunk of precip off West Wales.. it’s mostly rain over the sea, but it’s mainly sleet/snow what’s falling behind it in Ireland too..I think someone in mid/south wales, and possibly further east and south of that could have a surprise in the morning, especially over higher ground. 

[geordiekev]

Whilst I never wish systems were different out loud, as it is what it is, think I must be in a very small minority that silently has been wishing everything South. Why, because this knife edge situation which is reliant on dragging cold West into the very slow moving systems as they then turn East would be dragging colder conditions from what was an almost perfect set up.

As suggested a lot of radar & window watching this week as the E to W interaction of cold air into Atlantic sysyems is an absolute rarity.

The system that shows up out West this Thursday & takes a pit stop W of Iceland to fill up on Arctic air could prove interesting and keep us in the game mid month

Edited March 6, 2023 by geordiekev

[A.J]

Looking a little further ahead for the breakdown and thaw, and here it is

30+ Celcius with a thundery plume nailed on

I'll fetch me coat

[Pixel]

37 minutes ago, A.J said:

Looking a little further ahead for the breakdown and thaw, and here it is

30+ Celcius with a thundery plume nailed on

I'll fetch me coat

...has as much a chance or verification as present precipitation (cold snowy type) model forecast in the next few days - lovely tho it is 

Having been a patient observer over many years learning (in most cases not) weather modeling going toward 48hrs it never ceases to amaze that surprises IMBW ALLWAYS happen - Be that disappointment or fulfilment of hope 

Come summer thunderstorm chasing we'll be just as enthusiastic.

 

Love Netweather.tv, enthusiasm and entertainment through the very subject that makes our country unique - mostly unpredictable weather experienced on a small Island, the far right hand side of the Atlantic 

[geordiekev]

Again moving beyond this week, due to nowcasting variability, the animation above shows just how little mobility there is in the system & luckily we still do have a lot of very cold air to our North so wanted to point out the system peaking my interest beyond this week.

Here it is this Thursday, note how many days it takes to cross the Atlantic [7] via an Arctic top up. It does finally phase with an Atlantic system 10 days later, which transfers the cold our way again. Does feel all v slow mo

Edited March 7, 2023 by geordiekev
A good week to be visiting Scotland, not skiing though 😉

[MattStoke]

GFS 0z pushes the mild air all the way up to Scotland into Friday.

Arpege 0z has it further south with snow throughout for the Midlands northwards.

Edited March 7, 2023 by MattStoke

[Kentspur]

Nationwide snow on GEM this weekend (Apart from Cornwall)

In the meantime perhaps a high ground dusting for some today. Wednesday im just in the zone looks promising still.

 

Edited March 7, 2023 by Kentspur

[Ali1977]

Wednesday snow moved further north on the op and GEFS, GEFS mean showing 24 hours of snow for some southern counties into the midlands - could be pretty impressive.

Currently white and snowing outside at my location too

Thursday sends things north to far north of England and Scotland!! No doubt another change on the next run 

 

GEFS Mean for wed below!! 

Edited March 7, 2023 by Ali1977

[PiscesStar]

26 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Nationwide snow on GEM this weekend (Apart from Cornwall)

In the meantime perhaps a high ground dusting for some today. Wednesday im just in the zone looks promising still.

 

Fantastic news buddy... Yes, here in herne bay I'm keeping fingers crossed too... Haven't seen a flake yet to speak of...  

[Cheshire Freeze]

Thursday is interesting N of Birmingham on the UKMO...looks to match the Metoffice warning area 

Temperatures around freezing in the same area

[Weather-history]

35 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Thursday is interesting N of Birmingham on the UKMO...looks to match the Metoffice warning area 

Temperatures around freezing in the same area

CC

Can you see what BFTP is suggesting? 

With all due respect to BFTP, all it is, is rhetoric  to me, its like a politician promising the land of milk and honey without anything to show how it will happen.

 

Edited March 7, 2023 by Weather-history

[Andypvfc]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

Thursday is interesting N of Birmingham on the UKMO...looks to match the Metoffice warning area 

Temperatures around freezing in the same area

Could it be the first time I've ever seen lying Snow in Crewe

[SLEETY]

26 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

CC

Can you see what BFTP is suggesting? 

With all due respect to BFTP, all it is, is rhetoric  to me, its like a politician promising the land of milk and honey without anything to show how it will happen.

 

He thinks its going to be historic this snow this week? Like people climbing out of upstairs windows onto the snow and trains buried like in March 1891? 

Thats what I call historic, nothing like that is going to happen this week, just a normal snowfall for March  only place they may be digging themselves out is at the cairngorm restaurant at 3600 ft , not sea-level