Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

[EML Network]

5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Ali maybe those gfs means u posted earlier could prove to be correct!!!wouldnt be surprised if it gets extended even further north!!

if it does its probably bad news for anyone in the South of the warning area = sleet and rain along the coast I would imagine.

Guess we wont have long to wait to find out

[Weather-history]

By the way, this is what ECM 0z op was predicting for today, 240hrs ago

[swebby]

9 minutes ago, DAVE_ALLEN said:

Major upgrade just issued for more snow in the south via updated warning. . @nick sussex this defies the latest fax charts. One can only assume this evenings fax will have a significant adjustment.  
 

I admit I wasn’t expecting a significant upgrade in terms of warnings  for the south. 
 

it’s interesting to note. The snow risk has just crept north of the M4 as far as Luton northwards.  This northward movement is most likely a result of a deepening of the channel low. 

Reading the text, the update is now including ice in the warning, so an element of caution as to any assumption it means more snow. For my location (which was always marginal) any snow has been removed from the forecast and replaced by heavy rain for much of Wed. Such a change to increased ppt for my location however may mean places further north east up into Wilts and Glocs could be in with a better shout of snow rather than snizzle.

[NorthYorksWeather]

Has anyone told the 6z GFS it’s not BST yet and it should be rolling out by now? 

[Eskimo]

Just now, vizzy2004 said:

Has anyone told the 6z GFS it’s not BST yet and it should be rolling out by now? 

Busy checking its bin lids for a dusting this morning?

[sheikhy]

5 minutes ago, EML Network said:

if it does its probably bad news for anyone in the South of the warning area = sleet and rain along the coast I would imagine.

Guess we wont have long to wait to find out

Hopefully it dont push that far north where the south coasters miss out by literally a few miles!that would be painful!!

[rug]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Hopefully it dont push that far north where the south coasters miss out by literally a few miles!that would be painful!!

It will be. 

[Mike Poole]

16 minutes ago, DAVE_ALLEN said:

Major upgrade just issued for more snow in the south via updated warning. . @nick sussex this defies the latest fax charts. One can only assume this evenings fax will have a significant adjustment.  
 

I admit I wasn’t expecting a significant upgrade in terms of warnings  for the south. 
 

it’s interesting to note. The snow risk has just crept north of the M4 as far as Luton northwards.  This northward movement is most likely a result of a deepening of the channel low. 

Yes, and I know they haven’t updated the Thursday warning for the north yet, but it would be logical from what we’ve seen from the models, that if the Wednesday event is further north, the one on Thursday/Friday is likely to be further south.  

Unless, the reason for extending the Wednesday warning north, is due only to larger uncertainty rather than more confidence in the more northerly track.

[MattStoke]

GFS continues to push the mild air further and further north

UKV must have tended southwards. Met Office automated forecast for my location has gone down to a high of 1°C on Thursday with precipitation staying wintry. It was showing 3°C and rain before.

[Stuie]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, and I know they haven’t updated the Thursday warning for the north yet, but it would be logical from what we’ve seen from the models, that if the Wednesday event is further north, the one on Thursday/Friday is likely to be further south.  

Unless, the reason for extending the Wednesday warning north, is due only to larger uncertainty rather than more confidence in the more northerly track.

For what they are worth, the Arpege 18z ensembles were showing this. Await 6z.

[throwoff]

1 minute ago, Stuie said:

For what they are worth, the Arpege 18z ensembles were showing this. Await 6z.

With the new Met warnings this is looking like what they are leaning into. 

06Z will be massive today, could break hearts or build confidence.

[Liam Burge]

Just now, throwoff said:

With the new Met warnings this is looking like what they are leaning into. 

06Z will be massive today, could break hearts or build confidence.

Or could do neither and be just as clueless as everything else.

[sheikhy]

Gfs is running........

[Liam Burge]

Looking pretty good for most of southern england!

[throwoff]

06 like a dog with a bone, doesn't want to let go of the south getting snow. 

Timing of around 3am is interesting, could cause major disruption as people wake up to it.

[Stuie]

4 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

Looking pretty good for most of southern england!

534DAM across the South, that is pushing it with hardly -6 850`s also.

Edited March 7, 2023 by Stuie

[Mike Poole]

GFS 6z looking good for a wide range of the south, T30:

[Liam Burge]

For what it's worth (which is nothing), the GFS has 10cm+ quite widely in the south by T36.

[sheikhy]

Also at only 54 hours the gfs is less deep wity thursdays low and ever so slightly further south!

[sheikhy]

And by 72 hours yes its further north than ecm but thats a big move towards ecm from its 00z run!!!!less deep low and further south!

[weirpig]

Quite a northward shift from the arome  on the first low early wednesday morning compared to its previous run.

   

[Eskimo]

Northward extent on 00z



Northward extent on 06z - we're talking, what ~100 miles further south?

[DAVE_ALLEN]

45 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

And they are unsure how far north it will go , expecting the GFS to shift north then. 

I’m not sure it will track any further north. I think this is pushing it. Besides the northern edge of this warning area will be light patchy snow that probably will be to patchy to settle. Midlands will see some snow on Thursday on the leading edge as the low tracks across northern England.  

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Also at only 54 hours the gfs is less deep wity thursdays low and ever so slightly further south!

Arpege raises an eyebrow, I'll await the 06z ecm, but for Thursday I think even as far south as Oxford is in the game still.

[mountain shadow]

Cracking 6z for Northern Ireland with copious snow over 24 hours..