Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

[sheikhy]

Thats a big shift south for thursdays snow from gfs!!!!if ecm sticks to its 00z output then i reckon confidence levels for a big snow event across central england shall sky rocket!!!

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Arpege raises an eyebrow, I'll await the 06z ecm, but for Thursday I think even as far south as Oxford is in the game still.

but its showing snow before this stage isnt starting around 8/9am tomorrow morning according to the gfs anyway..this looks quite a lot of snow on the arperge

[Herefordweather]

The area of snow that moves in Wales later on Wednesday on the GFS06z has me interested. Could be a few inches from that. 

[Ali1977]

Close to 24 hours of snow possible in some areas tomorrow 

 

The arpege is a big upgrade for a much wider area in the south as the second band pushes much further north - expect that warning extended again 

Edited March 7, 2023 by Ali1977

[Lampostwatcher]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Close to 24 hours of snow possible in some areas tomorrow 

Could go amber tomorrow night

[nick sussex]

Not a single 06 hrs op run backs the T72 hours fax chart location of the low.

 

[Stuie]

Arpege 6z ensembles have gone for it (snow wise) Weds.

[weirpig]

Just now, Stuie said:

Arpege 6z ensembles have gone for it (snow wise) Weds.

Lol   It  smothers covers London.  Awaiting 24 hours news coverage 

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, Stuie said:

Arpege 6z ensembles have gone for it (snow wise) Weds.

The GEFS Mean has moved it much further north too

[throwoff]

1 minute ago, Stuie said:

Arpege 6z ensembles have gone for it (snow wise) Weds.

That's nearly 12 hours solid on Kent.. 

If this plays out and it turns to rain overnight Wednesday the ice conditions Thursday will be horrific.

[sheikhy]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The GEFS Mean has moved it much further north too

Dude that pushes the snow all the way to leeds and manchester and gives south of m4 all rain!!surely not!!

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, throwoff said:

That's nearly 12 hours solid on Kent.. 

If this plays out and it turns to rain overnight Wednesday the ice conditions Thursday will be horrific.

how is oxfordshire looking on the arperge?

[Stuie]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Dude that pushes the snow all the way to leeds and manchester and gives south of m4 all rain!!surely not!!

With the 528DAM around the Wash, makes more sense.

[throwoff]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

how is oxfordshire looking on the arperge?

I have to be honest, I am focusing entirely on my own back yard at the moment.

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

how is oxfordshire looking on the arperge?

White 

[weirpig]

Arome  bringing the second low much further North   and pommels  Dudley    Boo

[DAVE_ALLEN]

8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Not a single 06 hrs op run backs the T72 hours fax chart location of the low.

 

I think the late shift probably has a or two whilst the pencils were out sketching the fax charts

[Ali1977]

AROME - follows arpege with up to 6 inches on higher ground

Edited March 7, 2023 by Ali1977

[weirpig]

Harmonie   further South.   So to be clear    not a scooby.

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

AROME - follows arpege with up to 6 inches on higher ground

haha you would like to think this wont be far out at this close range...but who knows really!

[Thunder Snow]

Hope this comes off 24 hours of snow

[Stuie]

Midday wet bulb. Low level snow from London north possible.  (Wednesday)

 

Edited March 7, 2023 by Stuie

[Ali1977]

And further ahead winter strikes back early next week 

2 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:

Hope this comes off 24 hours of snow

My Fingers are crossed, im from Carlisle originally and have been promising all my friends about a big snow event for 2 weeks

[kold weather]

23 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Quite a northward shift from the arome  on the first low early wednesday morning compared to its previous run.

   

Yeah its literally only ukmo based products that far south now.

Expect it to fall in line on the 12z products.

[Battleground Snow]

A really big shift by arome and arpege this morning, increased snow for many areas we await the ukv and ecm.

Such changes at short notice must be a major headaches on where to throw the amber warnings.