Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

[Tim Bland]

Icon has rain for much of the day (away from high ground) turning to snow in the evening. Chilterns,  downs & welsh mountains etc could do well..

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Arps take on the second push on wednesday evening

Much much better for many

[BLS]

3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Arps take on the second push on wednesday evening

I would be very surprised if it goes that far north to be honest 

[weirpig]

5 minutes ago, throwoff said:

Massive push, has gone from light falling snow for Kent to coverage and moved much further north.

12z runs here we go

Not to dissimilar to the arome 12z

[Ali1977]

Hello arpege, Thursdays snow much further south and hitting same area 

Edited March 7, 2023 by Ali1977

[throwoff]

Tomorrow

Just now, weirpig said:

Not to dissimilar to the arome 12z

Tomorrow morning could be crazy out there. 

[Tim Bland]

Thursday on icon has the snow line further north ..so marginal could go either way for midlands & north, a lot will depend on rural location /: high ground etc 

[Metwatch]

2 minutes ago, Frostbite80 said:

Too far north for tonight and tomorrow and two far south for Thursday and Friday. Couldnt make it up, looks like 2 years of no snow here then

Same here! I think Wednesday evening may be better for the Central parts looking at the most recent output of some models.

May have to come down to radar watching 

[throwoff]

Just now, Metwatch said:

Same here! I think Wednesday evening may be better for the Central parts looking at the most recent output of some models.

May have to come down to radar watching 

It's a bizarre situation when Kent has better prospects from a Northern topple than the midlands.

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Hello arpege, Thursdays snow much further south and hitting same area 

I think the met office will drop the emphasis on northern England for Thursday and move the warnings further south soon, especially if the ukv and ecm show similar later

[snowking]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

Icon has rain for much of the day (away from high ground) turning to snow in the evening. Chilterns,  downs & welsh mountains etc could do well..

Was just about to post about this (not specific to ICON, but highlights the point). Lowland snowfall tomorrow during daylight hours is going to be quite tricky to achieve, certainly if you're expecting anything of the accumulating nature. This is not one of the situations we've seen at times in the past where we have moisture running into properly embedded cold, this is marginal from the word go.

We're reliant on both evaporative cooling and pulling in colder air from the NE - from a zone on the continent which is not as cold as it would ideally be for us.

Overnight tonight and after dark tomorrow I suspect we will be fine, but as Tim notes above (and as @Catacol alluded to a couple of days ago), we should not take for granted that anything falling out of the sky tomorrow will fall as snow. Intensity is going to be key and I suspect a very narrow strip is going to strike the jackpot.

[BLS]

3 minutes ago, throwoff said:

It's a bizarre situation when Kent has better prospects from a Northern topple than the midlands.

Agreed there is also I think a chance Kent could see snow all day from Early Wednesday morning till late Wednesday night, and there is a very slim chance of Thursday pull into Kent on the back end of the cold can dig in 

[Ali1977]

Arpege has it snowing all day Thursday quite far south now all very exciting !!

Edited March 7, 2023 by Ali1977

[throwoff]

Just now, BLS said:

Agreed there is also I think a chance Kent could see snow all day from Early Wednesday morning till late Wednesday night, and there is a very slim chance of Thursday pull into Kent on the back end of the cold can dig in 

I certainly agree an all day snowfall could happen. Even if it turns to rain in the evening by the time we wake up Thursday the ice will be just as difficult as the snow was.

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Arpege has it snowing all day Thursday quite far south now all very exciting !!

Yes some really heavy echos as the cold moves back south again. 

[mountain shadow]

7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Thursday on icon has the snow line further north ..so marginal could go either way for midlands & north, a lot will depend on rural location /: high ground etc 

Norn Iron in the prime position there. Closer to the colder air to the North West feeding into the low.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Norn Iron in the prime position there. Closer to the colder air to the North West feeding into the low.

Another Dumping by the end of the run as well.

[Lukesluckybunch]

24 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Is anyone Impatiently waiting for the warning area to change again , and fir it to go Amber. Maybe get the 12z’s in first  

as you mentioned south midlands earlier ali..it basically showing snow from tomorrow evening and most of thursday! the arperge that is

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

11 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Thursday on icon has the snow line further north ..so marginal could go either way for midlands & north, a lot will depend on rural location /: high ground etc 

indeed, when it is this marginal I tend not to get too excited tbh, especially at this time of year as it's not usually the white stuff thats falling out of the sky unless in the usual favoured  areas or at elevation 

[winterof79]

16 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Hello arpege, Thursdays snow much further south and hitting same area 

Thats 8am it hasn't started pushing NE yet so can't judge if system is further south yet

 

 

 

Edited March 7, 2023 by winterof79

[EML Network]

17 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Icon has rain for much of the day (away from high ground) turning to snow in the evening. Chilterns,  downs & welsh mountains etc could do well..

Iove how some are ignoring this.

going to be some upset people IMO come this time tomorrow.

Snow falling onto wet ground, with temperatures above zero even overnight and dew points wrong side of marginal.

im expecting rain here if it snows from the outset ill be pleasantly surprized

Edited March 7, 2023 by EML Network

[weirpig]

Aromes take on the second push wednesday evening

[Guest]

If this from the 12z Arpege happens I will eat my hat:

[Updated_Weather]

Just now, EML Network said:

Iove how everyones ignoring this.

going to be some upset people IMO come this time tomorrow.

Snow falling onto wet ground, with temperatures above zero even overnight and dew points wrong side of marginal.

im expecting rain here if it snows from the outset ill be pleasantly surprized

I'm confused? Main event is mainly Wednesday Evening.. Also that's the ICON. Hardly credible.

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Aromes take on the second push wednesday evening

some heavier stuff to the north and northwest of london