Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Don]

5 minutes ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

I meant sun not Don, there’s definitely not a lack of you

 

[Sunny76]

Yes, I think this summer might suffer from a lack of Don, but it might still be warn.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

46 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Yes, I think this summer might suffer from a lack of Don, but it might still be warn.

Is that a warning that we are in for a poor summer? 

[SunSean]

Proof that bad forecasts and bad models always become reality! No settled periods in the foreseeable!

Come back May 2021, all is forgiven!! 

[Guest]

57 minutes ago, SunSean said:

Proof that bad forecasts and bad models always become reality! No settled periods in the foreseeable!

Come back May 2021, all is forgiven!! 

Yes, if possible the outlook seems to be deteriorating even further. The model output this morning is getting close to as bad as it gets for mid to late May and we could yet end with the wettest spring on record. 

[In Absence of True Seasons]

59 minutes ago, SunSean said:

Proof that bad forecasts and bad models always become reality! No settled periods in the foreseeable!

Come back May 2021, all is forgiven!! 

Holy smokes Batman. That's some of the worst forecasts I've ever seen this time of year. 

Fingers crossed it's a classic case of "ignore the forecast until it's a day away" for this country, because if that run manifests...I'll be beyond words.

15c and rain for mid to late May!? Shocking stuff. 

Really hammers home the fact that whilst certain years can have bad months, like May 2021, it could always be much, much worse...

[In Absence of True Seasons]

11 minutes ago, Alderc said:

we could yet end with the wettest spring on record. 

Honestly wouldn't surprise me, perhaps not for the whole of the UK but certainly London and parts of the SE. Saturday it rained nearly from when I woke up to when I went to bed. Yesterday it rained solidly from late evening right into night, and looks to be raining the most of today as well. 

Like I said before, the whole season feels like it's.an entire month or so behind schedule. This weather is what I'd expect for early April - really changeable, cool, very wet showers and some sunny spells. 

[stainesbloke]

1 hour ago, SunSean said:

Proof that bad forecasts and bad models always become reality! No settled periods in the foreseeable!

Come back May 2021, all is forgiven!! 

Looks pretty grim, sadly. Might mean a sudden change at some point to a long, warm and settled summer though. One can hope!

[kold weather]

40 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Yes, if possible the outlook seems to be deteriorating even further. The model output this morning is getting close to as bad as it gets for mid to late May and we could yet end with the wettest spring on record. 

I think for the SE a record wet spring is looking at least possible (May with similar rainfall as April will do it).  Infact I'd say we are edging closer to odds on now.

For the EWP it will take a very exceptional May to break the record. I'd say its again possible but much less likely than it is for the SE. A top 10 wettest spring seems pretty nailed on however.

Edited May 9, 2023 by kold weather

[B87]

26 minutes ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Honestly wouldn't surprise me, perhaps not for the whole of the UK but certainly London and parts of the SE. Saturday it rained nearly from when I woke up to when I went to bed. Yesterday it rained solidly from late evening right into night, and looks to be raining the most of today as well. 

Like I said before, the whole season feels like it's.an entire month or so behind schedule. This weather is what I'd expect for early April - really changeable, cool, very wet showers and some sunny spells. 

You know it's been bad when we are only a week into May and we can already say with certainty that this spring will be among the wettest on record, with well below average sunshine. It could not rain at all for the rest of the month and that statement would still be true.

[kold weather]

9 minutes ago, B87 said:

You know it's been bad when we are only a week into May and we can already say with certainty that this spring will be among the wettest on record, with well below average sunshine. It could not rain at all for the rest of the month and that statement would still be true.

If it didn't rain anymore all month this May would come out roughly at number 30 in the all time wettest list.

Of course we are going to see plenty of convection in the next 3 days so that total will increase, regionally in more southern areas perhaps significantly so.

[B87]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

If it didn't rain anymore all month this May would come out roughly at number 30 in the all time wettest list.

Of course we are going to see plenty of convection in the next 3 days so that total will increase, regionally in more southern areas perhaps significantly so.

For the SE area, it will be higher up in the list as it's been much wetter here than elsewhere, relative to average.

At Heathrow, May would need to record 277 hours of sun for the spring to end with average sunshine. Seeing as only 4 or 5 Mays have seen sunshine levels that high, and we probably won't even reach 60 hours by mid-month, we can write that off as well.

[kold weather]

7 minutes ago, B87 said:

For the SE area, it will be higher up in the list as it's been much wetter here than elsewhere, relative to average.

At Heathrow, May would need to record 277 hours of sun for the spring to end with average sunshine. Seeing as only 4 or 5 Mays have seen sunshine levels that high, and we probably won't even reach 60 hours by mid-month, we can write that off as well.

Currently I estimate at 15th out of 150, but today's rain almost certain to raise that number higher. 

Interestingly we are still *just* behind 2018 in the rankings, though today will likely overtake that spring locally. Wettest spring was 1979. We are still some way behind that but that gap will close in the next few days.

Of course despite not being too obvious I  the modelling yet there is always the chance of a sharp shift  to drier conditions as well, we saw it happen a couple of times in  the winter and no reason it can't again.

[ANYWEATHER]

Without doubt this is turning out to be a very wet and cool spring from where I am. Some people have faired better some have faired worse.  But you really can't put lipstick and rouge on a Spring which for most has turned out ugly....

[B87]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Currently I estimate at 15th out of 150, but today's rain almost certain to raise that number higher. 

Interestingly we are still *just* behind 2018 in the rankings, though today will likely overtake that spring locally. Wettest spring was 1979. We are still some way behind that but that gap will close in the next few days.

Of course despite not being too obvious I  the modelling yet there is always the chance of a sharp shift  to drier conditions as well, we saw it happen a couple of times in  the winter and no reason it can't again.

Spring 2023 up to 8 May: 178.0mm

I calculate that 101.4mm this May will overtake Heathrow's spring 1979 total of 259.5mm. Spring 2018 saw 204.8mm here

The spring average is 127.0mm.

[kold weather]

13 minutes ago, B87 said:

Spring 2023 up to 8 May: 178.0mm

I calculate that 101.4mm this May will overtake Heathrow's spring 1979 total of 259.5mm. Spring 2018 saw 204.8mm here

The spring average is 127.0mm.

Probably a tough ask for Heathrow unless convection trains into that area. For the SE as a whole we only need about another 60mm to get 1st place and you've got to imagine that number will drop by at least 15-20mm in the next 3 days (especially given far Eastern stations already have 4-6mm from last nights rain in the bank). Likely to be in the top 10 cone the end of Thursday, maybe comfortably so.

[B87]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Probably a tough ask for Heathrow unless convection trains into that area. For the SE as a whole we only need about another 60mm to get 1st place and you've got to imagine that number will drop by at least 15-20mm in the next 3 days (especially given far Eastern stations already have 4-6mm from last nights rain in the bank). Likely to be in the top 10 cone the end of Thursday, maybe comfortably so.

We are already up to 19.8mm after the first week, so only another ~80mm to go. It looks like only Friday and Saturday will remain dry this week. By mid month we will already be up to 9 rain days for the month.

[Andrew Hurcomb]

3 hours ago, SunSean said:

Proof that bad forecasts and bad models always become reality! No settled periods in the foreseeable!

Come back May 2021, all is forgiven!! 

Just to back up what SunSean said, it looks delightful the next 14 days. Vile for this time of year.

Hereford - BBC Weather

WWW.BBC.COM

---

14-day weather forecast for Hereford.

 

[Stabilo19]

While many parts of Asia and North America get hints of early summer weather, the GFS has highs of 9 degrees across parts of the south of the UK next week.. in Mid May.. 

Time is running out on people saying this is average weather 

[Azazel]

When I read the ‘cold rampers’ come in here saying it’s been an average spring/nothing to moan about/it’s perfectly normal - I feel like I’m being gaslit

I have never known such an extended spell of s**t weather for the time of year with no end in sight.

Edited May 9, 2023 by Azazel

[Nick L]

8 minutes ago, Azazel said:

When I read the ‘cold tampers’ come in here saying it’s been an average spring/nothing to moan about/it’s perfectly normal - I feel like I’m being gaslit

I have never known such an extended spell of s**t weather for the time of year with no end in sight.

I'm far from a warm enthusiast and don't cope well with anything above the high 20s, but this has been the most depressing spring I can remember. It honestly hasn't even felt as if the clocks have gone forwards yet.

[Sunny76]

9 hours ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

Is that a warning that we are in for a poor summer? 

It will be without any decent amount of Don.

[Sunny76]

3 hours ago, SunSean said:

Proof that bad forecasts and bad models always become reality! No settled periods in the foreseeable!

Come back May 2021, all is forgiven!! 

No, I have no love for 2021 at all. 21 can stay away. 23 still have time to redeem itself. 

[danm]

16 minutes ago, Nick L said:

I'm far from a warm enthusiast and don't cope well with anything above the high 20s, but this has been the most depressing spring I can remember. It honestly hasn't even felt as if the clocks have gone forwards yet.

Agree. Even if temperatures somehow turned out to be close to "average", the lack of any significant warmth is what makes this such a poor Spring. 

Still no reason to suspect things won't improve for Summer, but spells such as this show how fickle the UK weather can be. In mid May 2022, the temperature peaked at 27.5c in London. 

But to show how a poor Spring doesn't mean a poor Summer, and a good Spring doesn't mean a good Summer - I remember the Spring's of 2007 and 2011 having lots of warm, sunny weather. The Summers that followed were very poor. 2013 had a cold, quite miserable Spring at times, and that July turned out to be a classic. 

Edited May 9, 2023 by danm

[al78]

18 minutes ago, Nick L said:

I'm far from a warm enthusiast and don't cope well with anything above the high 20s, but this has been the most depressing spring I can remember. It honestly hasn't even felt as if the clocks have gone forwards yet.

Like a semi-permanent October-November with the (very) occasional warm sunny day.

Looks like I will have to tackle my weedy allotment by getting up there any evening or weekend it is not raining. I got another bed cleared this weekend in between periods of rain but it will take the rest of this month at this rate to get it completely cultivated. Planted out brassicas on Sunday and they were starting to get wrecked by slugs on Monday, so am resigning myself to yet another poor harvest this year.

Digging the soil is surprisingly not very demanding (years of applying manure has lightened the soil), it is the digging up of clumps of couch grass and creeping buttercup and trying to smash the claggy boulder of soil off the roots that is very tedious.

Edited May 9, 2023 by al78
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