Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[KTtom]

Just now, Tidal Wave said:

The fabled SSW delivers a 1 day passing glance

Yep, for my location,  Wednesday looking brutal for those choosing to sit in their garden naked..otherwise, spring is on the way!

[Summer8906]

32 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Yep, for my location,  Wednesday looking brutal for those choosing to sit in their garden naked..otherwise, spring is on the way!

Still struggling to see any real sign of spring on the models I have to admit. GFS 12Z looks truly horrendous from Thurs 9th to Mon 13th inclusive, and after a brief interlude of something slightly more pleasant, then goes downhill again.  I sincerely hope that run doesn't come off - 2018 without the snow would sum it up.

GFS 00Z and 06Z are less dire, and restrict the bad weather to about a week, with anticyclonic conditions by the weekend of the 18th.

As I said above, spring is more about light level, daylength and lack of disturbed weather than it is temperature. If the temp exceeds 10C but it's dull, damp and gloomy for days, that isn't spring in my book.

 

 

Edited March 3, 2023 by Summer8906

[KTtom]

11 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Still struggling to see any real sign of spring on the models I have to admit. GFS 12Z looks truly horrendous from Thurs 9th to Mon 13th inclusive, and after a brief interlude of something slightly more pleasant, then goes downhill again. Vile, dismal cyclonic grot. I sincerely hope that run doesn't come off - 2018 without the snow would sum it up.

As I said above, spring is more about light level, daylength and lack of disturbed weather than it is temperature. If the temp exceeds 10C but it's dull, damp and gloomy for days, that isn't spring in my book.

 

 

Totally agree, March Spring for me is just getting the daylight extended, even cold days dont feel bad when its light. However, give some sun, even when its cold and it can feel very pleasant...plus  you get the vegetation comming to life. Nothing worse going to work in the dark and travelling home in the dark.

Edited March 3, 2023 by KTtom

[Summer8906]

6 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Totally agree, March Spring for me is just getting the daylight extended, even cold days dont feel bad when its light. However, give some sun, even when its cold and it can feel very pleasant...plus  you get the vegetation comming to life. 

Very true. It's turned dull and murky today but we've had some nice days in the past week or so, particularly Sunday, Monday and yesterday.

 Just hope that 00Z and 06Z are closer to the mark than the 12Z, as the former two give some hope that things will calm down again in a couple of weeks.

The reason why March 2018 was a bad month for me was not the two snowy episodes (I enjoyed those) but the near-constant dull, wet weather for the other 25 or so days of the month.

In fact 2018 was almost "the year without a spring". It went straight from winter to summer just after mid-April, there was very little true spring-like weather at all.

Edited March 3, 2023 by Summer8906

[KTtom]

3 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Very true. It's turned dull and murky today but we've had some nice days in the past week or so, particularly Sunday, Monday and yesterday.

 Just hope that 00Z and 06Z are closer to the mark than the 12Z, as the former two give some hope that things will calm down again in a couple of weeks.

The reason why March 2018 was a bad month for me was not the two snowy episodes (I enjoyed those) but the near-constant dull, wet weather for the other 25 or so days of the month.

Not a great memory of 2018 apart from the obvious. Apart from the washout  3 weeks post Xmas, its been a very benign winter...one thing the models to suggest is a more mobile pattern, so, a nice mixture of rain and clearer sunnier conditions between systems. 

[Summer8906]

14 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Not a great memory of 2018 apart from the obvious. Apart from the washout  3 weeks post Xmas, its been a very benign winter...

I have actually enjoyed the benign winter I have to admit, aside from that horrendous spell over Christmas and New Year.

True there's been no snow, but it was dry and "usable" from mid Jan until late Feb and that was a definite plus in my book. Also, there have been plenty of frosts, which has been more seasonable than some winters.

14 minutes ago, KTtom said:

one thing the models to suggest is a more mobile pattern, so, a nice mixture of rain and clearer sunnier conditions between systems. 

My fear though is we get days and days of a damp and drizzly Tm feed, and/or large slow moving lows stuck over the country, which seems to be what GFS 12Z is showing for most of the run from Thursday onwards.

ECM12Z is better, pressure is somewhat higher and there is more ridging from the Azores by Monday 13th so if that comes to pass it will be somewhat more benign.

Edited March 3, 2023 by Summer8906

[markw2680]

Most of us on here are guilty of going mad over every single model and model run. All I see is comments off abundance of snow or mild in the south rain, very dry due to high pressure but yet see lows everywhere, back edge snow bla bla bla.

im not as clued up as some on here but I like to think I no a bit and even I’m confused. Imagine the beginners or lurkers on here

[Snowyowl9]

Its been a funny ole winter buts certainly far from over yet..

 

[cheeky_monkey]

6 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Its been a funny ole winter buts certainly far from over yet..

 

meteo winter finished hence the spring thread 

[snowblind]

26 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Most of us on here are guilty of going mad over every single model and model run. All I see is comments off abundance of snow or mild in the south rain, very dry due to high pressure but yet see lows everywhere, back edge snow bla bla bla.

im not as clued up as some on here but I like to think I no a bit and even I’m confused. Imagine the beginners or lurkers on here

At times like these there's a lot of IMBYism about. If I see a comment that doesn't quite make sense I check the person's location and then it usually, but not always, becomes a little clearer.

[Snowyowl9]

56 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

meteo winter finished hence the spring thread 

Big lag as the days get longer the cold gets stronger..

First half of march you can forget what season you are in..

[emmett garland]

IS IT going to SNOW

[bluearmy]

Just now, emmett garland said:

IS IT going to SNOW

Of course - yes 

[Guest]

11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Of course - yes 

In 2027?

[Mapantz]

11 minutes ago, RhHh said:

What date is this for please Dave?

Next Wednesday

I wouldn't pay much attention to it..

It's certainly not showing a prolonged "dumping" of snow.

[Mapantz]

6 hours ago, matt111 said:

I'm quite looking forward to next week. Whatever happens we might see some actual weather. 

Yes!

I've missed hearing nigh time rain & wind outside. 

[matt111]

1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

Yes!

I've missed hearing nigh time rain & wind outside. 

Yes I'd love snow and will probably be annoyed to miss out as usual but even a bit of wind and rain is better than the endless nothingness of late.  

[KTtom]

6 hours ago, matt111 said:

Yes I'd love snow and will probably be annoyed to miss out as usual but even a bit of wind and rain is better than the endless nothingness of late.  

Yea, looking lively for a change next weekend, even a spell of wind and rain will be a change...the much preclaimed cold spell looks increasingly like snow will be restricted  to areas north Wales north from what I can see.

[RJBingham]

The "epic cold spell" looking like a couple of frosty nights 

[KTtom]

23 minutes ago, RJBingham said:

The "epic cold spell" looking like a couple of frosty nights 

Must admit it feels like ive been reading about this 'historic' cold spell for 6 weeks now! As usual, as soon as we got within the 168hr mark the cracks started to show. Feels like 6 weeks of my life ill never get back reading all the ramps for what now appears to be a bulk standard northern snow event, not exactly exceptional March weather. 

[Gowon]

23 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Must admit it feels like ive been reading about this 'historic' cold spell for 6 weeks now! As usual, as soon as we got within the 168hr mark the cracks started to show. Feels like 6 weeks of my life ill never get back reading all the ramps for what now appears to be a bulk standard northern snow event, not exactly exceptional March weather. 

we're only 4 days in - give it a chance 

 

[ChannelThunder]

17 hours ago, Stabilo19 said:

"We don't need the rain!"

Couldn't be more wrong IMO! We need a thorough soaking this spring before another summer drought hits us.

Driest February in 30 years for England

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

England had its driest February in 30 years according to provisional figures from the Met Office, as meteorological winter concluded with a dry and mild month for most.

 

'We don't need the rain' is typically a phrase I associate with people who just don't like it and may be ignorant of or just not care about the potentially serious water shortages we could end up with. Yes, there was a lot of rain in the Autumn and the start of January, but we're now into 7 weeks of predominantly very dry weather, which has come too soon after last year's drought. 

The rain will return; it always does, but I'd be surprised to see a wet summer. The last one of those I remember was at least a decade ago now. Unless I'm completely forgetting a wet summer in the last few years, they seem to be getting drier and more blocked, more often. 

15 hours ago, matt111 said:

I'm quite looking forward to next week. Whatever happens we might see some actual weather. 

Agreed. Even if it's cold and even if there's snow (not my favourite weather type), just having low pressure on the scene again in the reliable timeframe on the models is a sight to behold after pure nothingness since what, 15th January?

Edited March 4, 2023 by ResonantChannelThunder

[KTtom]

11 minutes ago, Gowon said:

we're only 4 days in - give it a chance 

 

unfortunately this week looks to be as good as it gets for snow enthusiasts, and going by the Mets app my location isnt worth a sleet symbol before we hit double figures next weekend.

[Gowon]

2 minutes ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

'We don't need the rain' is typically a phrase I associate with people who just don't like it and may be ignorant of or just not care about the potentially serious water shortages we could end up with. Yes, there was a lot of rain in the Autumn and the start of January, but we're now into 7 weeks of predominantly very dry weather, which has come too soon after last year's drought. 

The rain will return; it always does, but I'd be surprised to see a wet summer. The last one of those I remember was at least a decade ago now. Unless I'm completely forgetting a wet summer in the last few years, they seem to be getting drier and more blocked, more often. 

Agreed. Even if it's cold and even if there's snow (not my favourite weather type), just having low pressure on the scene again in the reliable timeframe on the models is a sight to behold after pure nothingness since what, 15th January?

I've never understood that mentality - It's a vital ingredient for life to exist.

4 minutes ago, KTtom said:

unfortunately this week looks to be as good as it gets for snow enthusiasts, and going by the Mets app my location isnt worth a sleet symbol before we hit double figures next weekend.

how do you know that for sure, though

[NewEra21]

I honestly don't get the current excitement for this upcoming cold spell, as in my view it's just downgrading with each run for next week.

Initially we were looking at a true northerly, clearing the south coast and reaching well into France with convention galore by Tuesday/Wednesday. Now the northerly barely reaches the south coast before being pushed back north by the milder Atlantic.

Hills in North and Scotland will obviously do fine, feel like a lot of others are going to be very disappointed.

 

Edited March 4, 2023 by NewEra21