Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[NEVES SCREAMER]

Just realised clocks go forward 2 weeks Saturday. 3 weeks tonight it will be light until 8pm. Another massive step in the right direction and the cold and dark of winter put away for another 7 months. 

[Metwatch]

14 hours ago, CreweCold said:

No modelling I can see is going for a mild spring, at any point really. We may of course see milder spells amongst a below average backdrop, but at this point I cannot see more than that.

 

March I think will be on the below average side, can be more certain with that but April and May perhaps a warm up.

Met office 3 month contingency planner for example went for a warmer April and May however they were quite wrong with February so who knows. Models can't get the next week sorted so seasonal ones won't be any better. 

[Mapantz]

Max of 9°C tomorrow, may scrape 10°C.  5 or 6°C on Tuesday & Wednesday, then in to double figures by Thursday. Enthralling stuff!

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Max of 9°C tomorrow, may scrape 10°C.  5 or 6°C on Tuesday & Wednesday, then in to double figures by Thursday. Enthralling stuff!

Quite, small risk of some transitionary snow but it’s a nothing spell. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

21 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Max of 9°C tomorrow, may scrape 10°C.  5 or 6°C on Tuesday & Wednesday, then in to double figures by Thursday. Enthralling stuff!

Exactly how I've seen it for days, Friday looks like being warmest day of year so far, then staying mild/even warm away from the north

[Don]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Exactly how I've seen it for days, Friday looks like being warmest day of year so far, then staying mild/even warm away from the north

Stop it, you're making me sweat!!  

[LRD]

2 hours ago, Downburst said:

The posts, most of them are entirely justified due to excitement and some hope, I totally get that as FI charts spew out forever winter mania. It’s the 5 or 6 hardcore posters that know only too well that these charts are nonsense, they get me. Clearly there to get validation or something around that area in my opinion. One of them sounds so emotional at times you’d think we were going into battle and he rouses the troops for one more push.

Nailed it

The validation point you make is especially, well, valid! Some people just post stuff for likes and attention. Weird and needy behaviour

Maybe I'm just losing the interest in the hobby anyway but there are plenty of people on that thread (and elsewhere but especially that thread) who are seriously putting me off all this. UK winters are becoming less and less interesting anyway but the strange over-excited almost child-like behaviour by some on this website - specifically the model thread - is massively putting me off

Can't debate, can't try and have a laugh and a joke and a gentle mickey take, can't offer an alternative view to what's being hyped without getting piled on and/or reported. To think I used to be part of that (although I've never, ever reported anyone). I really kick myself that I used to get taken in and join that behaviour until a couple of years or so ago. This winter has opened my eyes even further

Sad really

Edited March 5, 2023 by LRD

[Mapantz]

The weather bingo card has now been filled in.. 1947 has been mentioned! 

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, Mapantz said:

The weather bingo card has now been filled in.. 1947 has been mentioned! 

I'm sure I saw 63 mentioned too,someone said it had this pattern 

[KTtom]

9 hours ago, LRD said:

Nailed it

The validation point you make is especially, well, valid! Some people just post stuff for likes and attention. Weird and needy behaviour

Maybe I'm just losing the interest in the hobby anyway but there are plenty of people on that thread (and elsewhere but especially that thread) who are seriously putting me off all this. UK winters are becoming less and less interesting anyway but the strange over-excited almost child-like behaviour by some on this website - specifically the model thread - is massively putting me off

Can't debate, can't try and have a laugh and a joke and a gentle mickey take, can't offer an alternative view to what's being hyped without getting piled on and/or reported. To think I used to be part of that (although I've never, ever reported anyone). I really kick myself that I used to get taken in and join that behaviour until a couple of years or so ago. This winter has opened my eyes even further

Sad really

Good post, says what a good few are thinking. Even though I love a good blast of winter, i find myself posting milder charts than colder ones just to balance up the cold ramping. I see now its all going belly up from mid week FI is back to T96

BTW my 4cast temps for the week; 7,4,4,8,11,11,11 make your own mind up

Edited March 6, 2023 by KTtom

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Good post, says what a good few are thinking. Even though I love a good blast of winter, i find myself posting milder charts than colder ones just to balance up the cold ramping. I see now its all going belly up from mid week FI is back to T96

BTW my 4cast temps for the week; 7,4,4,8,11,11,11 make your own mind up

I've not been here long but it's a funny thread for sure. The dismissive attitude to anything other than cold/snow in winter is quite something. The straw clutching that the models are struggling when they don't show cold/snow is quite funny but also pathetic to see.

It's been obvious to many for days now that this week wasn't going to be anything too out of the ordinary for most places, but why let the facts get in the way?

Yet if you post charts that don't back the narrative you are deemed a wind-up merchant! I'm sorry, what???

I guess you just have to let bygones be bygones.

[KTtom]

10 minutes ago, Tidal Wave said:

I've not been here long but it's a funny thread for sure. The dismissive attitude to anything other than cold/snow in winter is quite something. The straw clutching that the models are struggling when they don't show cold/snow is quite funny but also pathetic to see.

It's been obvious to many for days now that this week wasn't going to be anything too out of the ordinary for most places, but why let the facts get in the way?

Yet if you post charts that don't back the narrative you are deemed a wind-up merchant! I'm sorry, what???

I guess you just have to let bygones be bygones.

It does make me laugh when I see the posts 'guys im sorry, due to xxxx im not going to be posting anymore' ... gets 100 likes and theyre back on the following day     anyway, move on...message to oneself...shouldn't get wound up ...especially  after a 7-0  

[Robin2012]

To me, to you 

To me, to you Zzzzzzzz

Now that’s what you actually call pathetic 

 

 

[LRD]

1 hour ago, KTtom said:

Good post, says what a good few are thinking. Even though I love a good blast of winter, i find myself posting milder charts than colder ones just to balance up the cold ramping. I see now its all going belly up from mid week FI is back to T96

BTW my 4cast temps for the week; 7,4,4,8,11,11,11 make your own mind up

Exactly. It's not as though I don't like a bit of cold (I do but I prefer front-loaded winters and especially December snow, which I was lucky enough to see this winter) but I'm no longer overly bothered by it. This week will at least be interesting after 4 or 5 weeks of nothingness but I like to see this week's weather in November - a bit of a starter before a Dec main course of cold

I don't understand why people are so offended by showing mild charts. How is that debate, balance and properly weighing up the possibilities? With all the cold charts posted newbies would think any particular cold pattern is nailed when other output is ignored (and you can't talk about the milder options/models and you can't highlight the hypocrisy of saying "GEM is a gem" one minute and then either a) ignoring it the next run when it shows milder weather or b) saying something like "it doesn't handle these situations very well"). Dare post a mild chart and you are trolling or winding people up? I mean, what the hell. No, it's not trolling, it's posting a chart from a model in the model thread

But the echo-chamber nature of that thread, encouraged and facilitated by so many, then usually leads to a load of whining and dummy-spitting when, surprise surprise, it rains instead of snows

Edited March 6, 2023 by LRD
Typos

[LetItSnow!]

9 minutes ago, LRD said:

Exactly. It's not as though I don't like a bit of cold (I do but I prefer front-loaded winters and especially December snow, which I was lucky enough to see this winter) but I'm no longer overly bothered by it. This week will at least be interesting after 4 or 5 weeks of nothingness but I like to see this week's weather in November - a bit of a starter before a Dec main course of cold

I don't understand why people are so offended by showing mild charts. How is that debate, balance and properly weighing up the possibilities? With all the cold charts posted newbies would think any particular cold pattern is nailed when other output (and you can't talk about the milder options/models and you can't highlight the hypocrisy of saying "GEM is a gem" one minute and then either a) ignoring it the next run when it shows milder weather or b) saying something like "it doesn't handle these situations very well". Dare post a mild chart and you are trolling or winding people up? I mean, what the hell. No, it's not trolling, it's posting a chart from a model in the model thread

But the echo-chamber nature of that thread, encouraged and facilitated by so many, then usually leads to a load of whining and dummy-spitting when, surprise surprise, it rains instead of snows

You’ve said a lot of what a lot of us think. One of my least favourite things about this website though is the quite aggressive nature that people will go to to defend their viewpoint or weather preference, defensive in the tone of message for even hinting at the possibility of something else occurring (cold and mild/hot!). 

There are many intelligent people here and I am always drawn back usually to the more historical and conversational parts of the website more than the model part. Sometimes I genuinely think about leaving but I do love having a place to talk about one of my greatest interests. I do think a lot of the time the good outweighs the bad. 

 

Unless it’s a severe weather event that is deadly we must remind ourselves that weather is weather and we shouldn’t act fanatical or be mean about it. We’re only ever as wise as a guess or model output. 

Edited March 6, 2023 by LetItSnow!

[LRD]

2 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

You’ve said a lot of what a lot of us think. One of my least favourite things about this website though is the quite aggressive nature that people will go to to defend their viewpoint or weather preference, defensive in the tone of message for even hinting at the possibility of something else occurring (cold and mild/hot!). 

There are many intelligent people here and I am always drawn back usually to the more historical and conversational parts of the website more than the model part. Sometimes I genuinely think about leaving but I do love having a place to talk about one of my greatest interests. I do think a lot of the time the good outweighs the bad. 

 

Unless it’s a severe weather event that is deadly we must remind ourselves that weather is weather and we shouldn’t act fanatical or be mean about it.

Agreed

I ain't got a problem with folk getting a little excited about snow as it is so rare in this country these days but there is a balance to be struck.

The bit I've bolded in your post is a lot of the problem - some people just take it all so seriously and then, so personally, when it goes wrong (for cold) and the "weather gods" (another awful cliche) "don't deliver" (another cliche)

As I've said, I used to be a bit like that up to a couple of years ago and I massively regret it. 

[Seasonal Trim]

18 minutes ago, LRD said:

Exactly. It's not as though I don't like a bit of cold (I do but I prefer front-loaded winters and especially December snow, which I was lucky enough to see this winter) but I'm no longer overly bothered by it. This week will at least be interesting after 4 or 5 weeks of nothingness but I like to see this week's weather in November - a bit of a starter before a Dec main course of cold

I don't understand why people are so offended by showing mild charts. How is that debate, balance and properly weighing up the possibilities? With all the cold charts posted newbies would think any particular cold pattern is nailed when other output is ignored (and you can't talk about the milder options/models and you can't highlight the hypocrisy of saying "GEM is a gem" one minute and then either a) ignoring it the next run when it shows milder weather or b) saying something like "it doesn't handle these situations very well"). Dare post a mild chart and you are trolling or winding people up? I mean, what the hell. No, it's not trolling, it's posting a chart from a model in the model thread

But the echo-chamber nature of that thread, encouraged and facilitated by so many, then usually leads to a load of whining and dummy-spitting when, surprise surprise, it rains instead of snows

It's a terrible thread nowadays. Not to be taken seriously anymore. There used to be some extremely good posters there in the past. A shame really.

[ChannelThunder]

I take it the models are overdoing the 'purple' this week? According to some of them, even down here on the Island we're getting a couple of dumpings, but I just can't see it'll be that way. 

[Robin2012]

Incoming………..,

[DJ Fart]

It's really simple: use the ignore user feature, it's great.  Personally, I quite enjoy the hype, it's just a bit of fun.  If the models are showing nothing of interest I'll stay away for a week or so.  Like any facet of life, you have people in there for who this is everything, and that's fair enough.  However, the very nature of the hobby means it's going to appeal to some characters who might find normal social situations challenging.  Can you imagine going for a pint with them all?!  This is their release.  I only come on here from about November-February because I'm interested in snow; others will stay here all year because they're weather aficionados.  That's cool, good for them.  

By using the ignore user feature, I've been able to curate the content to, broadly, show me what I want to read, whether that's hyperbolic cold ramping, or careful, considered analysis of why it won't snow.  Anyone celebrating in there because it's going to snow in their area only goes straight on the list!  Anyone posting 2000 words in a post, a lot of which I can't understand, also goes on the list.  Honestly, try it out, you'll find it a much more enjoyable experience.  Oh, and don't follow any of them on Twitter, they're even worse on there.  I've seen two of them having a full blown row about who called what, first.  Hilarious!

Edited March 6, 2023 by DJ Fart
Typo

[LRD]

Just now, DJ Fart said:

It's really simple: use the ignore user feature, it's great.  Personally, I quite enjoy the hype, it's just a bit of fun.  If the models are showing nothing of interest I'll stay away for a week or so.  Like any facet of life, you have people in there for who this is everything, and that's fair enough.  However, the very nature of the hobby means it's going to appeal to some characters who might find normal social situations challenging.  Can you imagine going for a pint with them all?!  This is their release.  I only come on here from about November-February because I'm interested in snow; others will stay here all year because they're weather aficionados.  That's cool, good for them.  

By using the ignore user feather, I've been able to curate the content to, broadly, show me what I want to read, whether that's hyperbolic cold ramping, or careful, considered analysis of why it won't snow.  Anyone celebrating in there because it's going to snow in their area only goes straight on the list!  Anyone posting 2000 words in a post, a lot of which I can't understand, also goes on the list.  Honestly, try it out, you'll find it a much more enjoyable experience.  Oh, and don't follow any of them on Twitter, they're even worse on there.  I've seen two of them having a full blown row about who called what, first.  Hilarious!

You make some fair points. But putting people on ignore would then just lead to me creating my own echo chamber, which'd be hypocritical of me. I totally get what you're saying though in terms of the type of poster you put on ignore!

Don't do Twitter - it's a cess pit whatever the subject matter is

As I say, if people want to get hyped, then fine. I can't really understand it anymore but, ok. But within that environment what is so wrong with highlighting a model that shows something different? As I say, stifling posts of that nature just makes the disappointment - when another phantom, computer-generated cold spell fails - even more acute for those who are so emotionally invested

Posts showing something other than cold are a service to cold fans if anything. Tempers expectation and eases disappointment, surely?

Anyway, dog needs walking and then work

Have good days everyone

[BlueHedgehog074]

While I quite enjoy using (albeit mostly occasionally) and reading the Model thread, I think it’s unfortunate that those who like to post charts that show something such as (edit: other than) cold, do get looked down upon sometimes. It can ruin what can be a great, informative, thread. I have no doubt the odd few do it to try winding others up, otherwise some are trying to provide a more level headed view of the outlook. A good thing really. Sometimes you do have to scroll through many posts until you get to those that some on here prefer - objective, balanced posts. (Though personally don’t mind, either, the posts chasing the cold or hot spells, to take away some of the seriousness of the thread). Although, during the Spring, especially the later part and throughout Summer, the thread feels more relaxed.

Edited March 6, 2023 by DiagonalRedLine

[DJ Fart]

Oh yeah, I agree.  Model chat should be about discussing what is coming, not what you want to happen.  Surely that's what this thread, or the regionals, are for?

To come to your other point though, about the echo chamber, not at all.  I don't block all who I disagree with, just those that offer nothing constructive.  Well aware of the pointlessness of the echo chamber!

[LRD]

Just now, DJ Fart said:

Oh yeah, I agree.  Model chat should be about discussing what is coming, not what you want to happen.  Surely that's what this thread, or the regionals, are for?

To come to your other point though, about the echo chamber, not at all.  I don't block all who I disagree with, just those that offer nothing constructive.  Well aware of the pointlessness of the echo chamber!

Fair enough. Yep, understood 

[DJ Fart]

1 minute ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

While I quite enjoy using (albeit mostly occasionally) and reading the Model thread, I think it’s unfortunate that those who like to post charts that show something such as cold, do get looked down upon sometimes. It can ruin what can be a great, informative, thread. I have no doubt the odd few do it to try winding others up, otherwise some are trying to provide a more level headed view of the outlook. A good thing really. Sometimes you do have to scroll through many posts until you get to those that some on here prefer - objective, balanced posts. (Though personally don’t mind, either, the posts chasing the cold or hot spells, to take away some of the seriousness of the thread). Although, during the Spring, especially the later part and throughout Summer, the thread feels more relaxed.

Agreed.  Like I said, I do quite enjoy the hype as well as the constructive stuff.  There is a certain member who is fond of an exclamation mark who I've come close to ignoring before, but I like his child-like wonder!  Despite my very low post-count, I've actually been a member here for a long time (10 years!) and seen the general content being 'dumbed down' a certain amount.  We've lost some really knowledgeable people over the years and the community is worse for it.  Just my opinion, of course.