Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Buzz]

55 minutes ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

Uh-oh, a few toys being thrown from the pram in the other thread now that GFS is shifting lows further south midweek. I suspect ECM will show the opposite and be heralded as the hero in about 45 minutes! 

GEM has 'nailed it'. AKA it shows what certain people want.

And don't forget the almost inevitable and incredibly annoying use of the word BOOM! ...........

Overall though, anyone wanting rain and milder weather should be happy with what's largely being shown for the end of the week (at the moment at least).

Edited March 4, 2023 by Buzz

[January Snowstorm]

The part I find really tough is not necessarily next weeks failure but going forward the lessons on Strat warmings not delivering. I know they are not a guarantee but we got 2 and the Met on board and still turns out a 2 day show

[Jacob Gamer]

I wish the SE could get snow

[NewEra21]

Just now, Jacob Gamer said:

I wish the SE could get snow

Ideally the SE needs something from the East, far better than any northerly. 

[LRD]

14 minutes ago, Buzz said:

And don't forget the almost inevitable and incredibly annoying use of the word BOOM! ...........

Overall though, anyone wanting rain and milder weather should be happy with what's largely being shown for the end of the week (at the moment at least).

Yep agree. I still wouldn't guarantee milder weather by Friday (still think there might be some to-ing and fro-ing of the pattern) but it has trended that way today

[Jamiescot1]

Glad Scotlands still in the mix for coldness

[78/79]

10 hours ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

We don't need the rain' is typically a phrase I associate with people who just don't like it and may be ignorant of or just not care about the potentially serious water shortages we could end up with

 The only time excessive rain gets under my skin is if it stops me from working , and earning a living . Unlike most people, I only get paid for what I turn out in a day, and not for just turning up on time. A week or longer of that stuff hits me hard in the pocket sometimes.

[Guest]

Don't want to say it...but I told you so! The cold with snow plunge from the North was never going to happen away from the far north. Writing has been on the wall since Jan with such a resilient HP. 

Anyway, moving forward a week it's gonna get wet in the SW for sure. And for most of us. Before another UK HP and a lovely Spring.

[Guest]

Wouldn’t be surprised to see a mild second half to March. Maybe the first 20C of the year? 

[Froze were the Days]

Looking more and more likely that this convoluted SSW and all the posts/charts/ensembles that goes with it for next week anyway is looking like a 2 day maybe 3 day cold spell and probably dry before some rain and maybe a bit of sleet and wet snow at first moves through - certainly if you live in the south. Shouldn't really be surprised...

Edited March 4, 2023 by Froze were the Days

[Froze were the Days]

1 hour ago, DCee said:

Don't want to say it...but I told you so! The cold with snow plunge from the North was never going to happen away from the far north.

That's the thing that caught my eye considering the OTT det runs the GFS was throwing out a week back or so...the south just gets into -5c thermal line but that's about it and main wedge of really cold air to the north of Scotland and only the -5c line over most of the UK.

GFS has been pretty awful this Winter (as well as others)...we would have been knee deep in the white stuff at times if only 50% of those runs had verified over the last few months, problem is the GFS sniffs out a pattern change and goes completely overboard with it and eventually comes back closer to 0z with it's tail between it's legs.

Edited March 4, 2023 by Froze were the Days

[LRD]

20 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

That's the thing that caught my eye considering the OTT det runs the GFS was throwing out a week back or so...the south just gets into -5c thermal line but that's about it and main wedge of really cold air to the north of Scotland and only the -5c line over most of the UK.

GFS has been pretty awful this Winter...we would have been knee deep in the white stuff at times if only 50% of those runs had verified over the last few months, problem is the GFS sniffs out a pattern change and goes completely overboard with it and eventually comes back closer to 0z with it's tail between it's legs.

I never wanted this cold spell for personal reasons but I'll be cheering cold on again from late November for a couple of months or so

But the implications for the likelihood of future cold spells IF this SSW fails to produce much on the UK ground is alarming. I know SSWs don't guarantee anything but this was quite a dramatic one and if all it produces is some North and East Scotland and East Coast snow showers and not much else, well, the word underwhelming won't do it justice

Also goes to show that, if this proves to be yet another UK cold fail, a displacement is pretty flimsy compared to a split Polar Vortex

Still not ruling out the pendulum swinging back to cold in the next 36 hours, though

Edited March 4, 2023 by LRD
Typos

[Mapantz]

Projected temperatures for this location, next week, look like a continuation of last week/weekend. Maxes might be down a little, but still making it to 7 or 8°C each day. The minimum temperatures aren't that special either - may scrape an air frost or two.

[LRD]

Just now, Mapantz said:

Projected temperatures for this location, next week, look like a continuation of last week/weekend. Maxes might be down a little, but still making it to 7 or 8°C each day. The minimum temperatures aren't that special either - may scrape an air frost or two.

That's something I'm not getting in all this. The Met Office's forecasts and text updates look pretty wintry. Talking about 'much colder' weather, etc. Yet, temps will only fall about 2 or 3 degrees (and not for long) where I am and where I'm headed next Friday, compared to where they are now - according to their city forecasts that sit on the same web page.

Well, that's not what I would class as 'much' colder. Baffling

[Methuselah]

Meanwhile, it's a Doris Day:

 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Projected temperatures for this location, next week, look like a continuation of last week/weekend. Maxes might be down a little, but still making it to 7 or 8°C each day. The minimum temperatures aren't that special either - may scrape an air frost or two.

Time of year surely, snow can fall though in right setup in 8 degrees before the shower

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Methuselah said:

Meanwhile, it's a Doris Day:

 

 

reminds me of this 

 

[Mapantz]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Time of year surely, snow can fall though in right setup in 8 degrees before the shower

I had my decadal quota of that back in December. 

[LRD]

5 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

Meanwhile, it's a Doris Day:

 

 

Should post that on the model thread - I'm sure most people on there would react with balance and say "you know what, yeah, I'm philosophical if this cold spell turns out to be as exciting as Eddie Howe's Newcastle"

Or, maybe not, and you'll get a ban!

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, LRD said:

Should post that on the model thread - I'm sure most people on there would react with balance and say "you know what, yeah, I'm philosophical if this cold spell turns out to be as exciting as Eddie Howe's Newcastle"

Or, maybe not, and you'll get a ban!

You're learning! 

[rotherhamsnowman]

1 hour ago, LRD said:

That's something I'm not getting in all this. The Met Office's forecasts and text updates look pretty wintry. Talking about 'much colder' weather, etc. Yet, temps will only fall about 2 or 3 degrees (and not for long) where I am and where I'm headed next Friday, compared to where they are now - according to their city forecasts that sit on the same web page.

Well, that's not what I would class as 'much' colder. Baffling

Current alert level: Level 3 - Cold Weather Action

Issued at: 08:47 on Fri 3 Mar 2023

There is a 90% probability of severe cold weather/icy conditions/heavy snow between 0001 on Monday 06 Mar and 2359 on Thursday 09 Mar in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

There is an increased confidence that a period of very cold weather will develop across the country from early next week, as a north or northeasterly airflow becomes established across the UK. The highest confidence is for northern parts where cold weather is expected to develop from early on Monday, progressing southwards through the day. Below average temperatures are expected throughout, bringing a widespread frost and wintry showers, these frequent along exposed windward coasts along with a risk of ice hazards. There is also a risk of more prolonged snow, perhaps due to rain pushing into the west from around midweek, although this is currently considered to be low confidence. This alert is likely to be updated and perhaps extended next week.

 

Thats the Mets Cold Weather alert for everywhere above Nottingham.

The bit that gets me is the part where it says This alert is likely to be updated and perhaps extended. Don’t know what you guys who are saying mild are seeing different from Met Office. 

 

 

Edited March 4, 2023 by rotherhamsnowman

[LRD]

9 minutes ago, rotherhamsnowman said:

Current alert level: Level 3 - Cold Weather Action

Issued at: 08:47 on Fri 3 Mar 2023

There is a 90% probability of severe cold weather/icy conditions/heavy snow between 0001 on Monday 06 Mar and 2359 on Thursday 09 Mar in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

There is an increased confidence that a period of very cold weather will develop across the country from early next week, as a north or northeasterly airflow becomes established across the UK. The highest confidence is for northern parts where cold weather is expected to develop from early on Monday, progressing southwards through the day. Below average temperatures are expected throughout, bringing a widespread frost and wintry showers, these frequent along exposed windward coasts along with a risk of ice hazards. There is also a risk of more prolonged snow, perhaps due to rain pushing into the west from around midweek, although this is currently considered to be low confidence. This alert is likely to be updated and perhaps extended next week.

 

Thats the Mets Cold Weather alert for everywhere above Nottingham.

The bit that gets me is the part where it says This alert is likely to be updated and perhaps extended. Don’t know what you guys who are saying mild are seeing different from Met Office. 

 

 

That's my point mate

All that sort of wording and, yet, Sheffield, where I will be for a football match on Saturday and your neck of the woods has a forecast of 7s on the Met office website and dry weather, not much colder than we have now

That's what I'm trying to say - there is a disconnect between their text updates and their city forecasts. Odd

 

[RhHh]

5 hours ago, Buzz said:

And don't forget the almost inevitable and incredibly annoying use of the word BOOM! ...........

Overall though, anyone wanting rain and milder weather should be happy with what's largely being shown for the end of the week (at the moment at least).

I find it even more annoying when they say BANK!

[alexisj9]

4 minutes ago, RhHh said:

I find it even more annoying when they say BANK!

Weirdly for some reason, no one has actually said that, unless I've somehow missed it 

[RhHh]

Just now, alexisj9 said:

Weirdly for some reason, no one has actually said that, unless I've somehow missed it 

They say it all the time when they see a chart they like. You must have seen it.