Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[throwoff]

Just hear to get some positivity in my mind!

SNOW FOR SOUTH EAST TONIGHT!

(please...)

[LRD]

1 minute ago, DJ Fart said:

Agreed.  Like I said, I do quite enjoy the hype as well as the constructive stuff.  There is a certain member who is fond of an exclamation mark who I've come close to ignoring before, but I like his child-like wonder!  Despite my very low post-count, I've actually been a member here for a long time (10 years!) and seen the general content being 'dumbed down' a certain amount.  We've lost some really knowledgeable people over the years and the community is worse for it.  Just my opinion, of course.

100% spot on. Lost loads of brilliant posters. Losing that BBC weather presenter fella was especially disappointing and careless

Anyway, I really am getting the dog out now

[ANYWEATHER]

Tbh ,I think there should be a HYPE thread! I'm sick and tired on coming on to the mod thread with thousands of misinformed posts for instance now about Snowmageddon.  Very misleading posts especially for newbies on here and I'm sure Paul the good person he is would agree!☺

[Weather-history]

7 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Tbh ,I think there should be a HYPE thread! I'm sick and tired on coming on to the mod thread with thousands of misinformed posts for instance now about Snowmageddon.  Very misleading posts especially for newbies on here and I'm sure Paul the good person he is would agree!☺

There is this thread that helps to sift the nuggets from the dross.

 

[DJ Fart]

5 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

There is this thread that helps to sift the nuggets from the dross.

 

True, and it's a really good idea, but relies on people actually hitting the 'informative' reaction, which many egos won't allow!  

[Summer Sun]

The Met Office have issued a level 3 cold weather alert for all of England

Current alert level: Level 3 - Cold Weather Action

Issued at: 08:34 on Mon 6 Mar 2023

There is a 90% probability of severe cold weather/icy conditions/heavy snow between 0900 on Monday 06 Mar and 2359 on Thursday 09 Mar in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

General Situation: Very cold weather is expected across most of England this week, with widespread frosts overnight and temperatures struggling to rise above freezing in some places during the day. A band of rain and hill snow will move southwards during Monday, perhaps bringing some snow to low levels for a time overnight into Tuesday for central, eastern and south-eastern England. To the north of this band frequent snow showers will affect northeast England during Monday and Tuesday, with icy stretches developing. Another spell of rain, sleet and snow is likely for southern parts of England during Wednesday, then central and northern England are at risk of seeing periods of snow on Thursday and Friday.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/?tab=coldWeatherAlert&season=normal#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

 

[LRD]

40 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The Met Office have issued a level 3 cold weather alert for all of England

Current alert level: Level 3 - Cold Weather Action

Issued at: 08:34 on Mon 6 Mar 2023

There is a 90% probability of severe cold weather/icy conditions/heavy snow between 0900 on Monday 06 Mar and 2359 on Thursday 09 Mar in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

General Situation: Very cold weather is expected across most of England this week, with widespread frosts overnight and temperatures struggling to rise above freezing in some places during the day. A band of rain and hill snow will move southwards during Monday, perhaps bringing some snow to low levels for a time overnight into Tuesday for central, eastern and south-eastern England. To the north of this band frequent snow showers will affect northeast England during Monday and Tuesday, with icy stretches developing. Another spell of rain, sleet and snow is likely for southern parts of England during Wednesday, then central and northern England are at risk of seeing periods of snow on Thursday and Friday.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/?tab=coldWeatherAlert&season=normal#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

 

6 weeks of hype for about 3 days of cold IMBY

[SussexSnowman]

Margins are fine for this bout of wintry weather. I do hope you all get a decent dumping. Reminds me of Feb 2021. We missed out here  just a few miles inland from the coast, but 30 miles up the road from me in Tadworth friend of mine got a good dumping. Shows how fine those margins are.

 

[johncam]

To be honest can't get excited about this spell, nothing out of the ordinary,  will see a few frosts and hopefully some sun 

[KTtom]

3 hours ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

While I quite enjoy using (albeit mostly occasionally) and reading the Model thread, I think it’s unfortunate that those who like to post charts that show something such as cold, do get looked down upon sometimes. It can ruin what can be a great, informative, thread. I have no doubt the odd few do it to try winding others up, otherwise some are trying to provide a more level headed view of the outlook. A good thing really. Sometimes you do have to scroll through many posts until you get to those that some on here prefer - objective, balanced posts. (Though personally don’t mind, either, the posts chasing the cold or hot spells, to take away some of the seriousness of the thread). Although, during the Spring, especially the later part and throughout Summer, the thread feels more relaxed.

Hopefully you will take some feedback from the posts above to your boss in readiness for next year We do need a thread where the cold enthusiasts can live in harmony (Chasing cold thread) and then another for general model discussion.

1 hour ago, johncam said:

To be honest can't get excited about this spell, nothing out of the ordinary,  will see a few frosts and hopefully some sun 

Yea, typically the chance of some snow for southern areas is tonight.. but, its mostly in the early hours so most will miss it!

[danm]

I'm a cold/snow lover as much as anyone (albeit much less so once we get into Spring) and I'm also one for positivity, but there are a couple of folks on the model thread who act like cold cheerleaders, trying to whip up the troops for battle, as if any pessimism or rational analysis indicating that things aren't going to be great is heresy. Frankly, those few people (and there is one person who is the biggest cheerleader of the lot) lose all credibility in my eyes as all they are trying to do is put as positive a spin on any situation to ramp up cold and snowy prospects, even when those chances are dying a death. 

[BlueHedgehog074]

1 hour ago, KTtom said:

Hopefully you will take some feedback from the posts above to your boss in readiness for next year We do need a thread where the cold enthusiasts can live in harmony (Chasing cold thread) and then another for general model discussion.

It’s always something we can certainly try for next Winter. I mean there is the Model Highlights thread but, for some, I respect the fact it’s not quite the same as having a relaxed general model output thread to take part in. 

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

It’s always something we can certainly try for next Winter. I mean there is the Model Highlights thread but, for some, I respect the fact it’s not quite the same as having a relaxed general model output thread to take part in. 

Or we could have a thread imaginatively titled 'SNOW WATCH' -- you never know, it could even rid the MOD threat of all that baseless ramping. 

[CryoraptorA303]

Depressing forecast here. Just two days of 5c and one freezing night with the possibility of transitory snow, and then low double digits rain for the next ever. I think the seasons are the wrong way around; this looks more like your average November forecast than March. Would be funny if this autumn ends up being really sunny and spring-like after what looks to be a very autumntastic spring.

I wouldn't take the Met Office warning as a serious sign; they always up the ante with cold warnings to account for the small possibility that things do get cold and snowy somewhere. Sort of like the July 2021 heatwave which was given the first ever red heat warning, and in the end, compared to recent years it wasn't anything to write home about. The warning is issued every time the forecast looks like its about to have a freezing night or two.

[CryoraptorA303]

38 minutes ago, danm said:

I'm a cold/snow lover as much as anyone (albeit much less so once we get into Spring) and I'm also one for positivity, but there are a couple of folks on the model thread who act like cold cheerleaders, trying to whip up the troops for battle, as if any pessimism or rational analysis indicating that things aren't going to be great is heresy. Frankly, those few people (and there is one person who is the biggest cheerleader of the lot) lose all credibility in my eyes as all they are trying to do is put as positive a spin on any situation to ramp up cold and snowy prospects, even when those chances are dying a death. 

I totally agree. I'm a big coldie and I've been able to see for weeks that this wasn't going anywhere, at the same time the MOD thread was in FI. It seems like we're headed for weather that doesn't really please anyone for the next couple of weeks: Rainy, overcast and painfully average.

[alexisj9]

5 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

Depressing forecast here. Just two days of 5c and one freezing night with the possibility of transitory snow, and then low double digits rain for the next ever. I think the seasons are the wrong way around; this looks more like your average November forecast than March. Would be funny if this autumn ends up being really sunny and spring-like after what looks to be a very autumntastic spring.

I wouldn't take the Met Office warning as a serious sign; they always up the ante with cold warnings to account for the small possibility that things do get cold and snowy somewhere. Sort of like the July 2021 heatwave which was given the first ever red heat warning, and in the end, compared to recent years it wasn't anything to write home about. The warning is issued every time the forecast looks like its about to have a freezing night or two.

As I've explained before, those warnings are not actually for us, but for the infrastructure around us, to prepare for in this case cold weather, re the heat one hot weather. It's basically look after the vulnerable, and get ready for extra cold weather casualties etc. Not everyone is healthy, or in cold weather, has a warm home, it also opens the homeless shelters.

[CryoraptorA303]

6 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

As I've explained before, those warnings are not actually for us, but for the infrastructure around us, to prepare for in this case cold weather, re the heat one hot weather. It's basically look after the vulnerable, and get ready for extra cold weather casualties etc. Not everyone is healthy, or in cold weather, has a warm home, it also opens the homeless shelters.

Of course. It's better to be safe than sorry. You don't want to not activate the warning, and then against the odds it does get seriously cold, vs activating the warning and it predictably doesn't get anomalously cold. And as you mention, a freezing night or two is still bad news for the homeless and potentially for the vulnerable.

[Methuselah]

And here's the Met. Office's latest forecast for the week ahead:

I'll be lucky if I see a single flake! 

[ANYWEATHER]

Well it's the mildest day here for at least 10 days, I think last week will have felt much colder than this week coming up. Ramping up cold when it's just a few degrees below normal is totally madness...

[alexisj9]

8 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Well it's the mildest day here for at least 10 days, I think last week will have felt much colder than this week coming up. Ramping up cold when it's just a few degrees below normal is totally madness...

Yep nice and warm here too, it's what happens when you're in a warm sector from a low, it will be colder tomorrow.

[Scorcher]

These awful cold springs really are the scourge of the modern British climate.

Springs seem to be very much feast or famine these days when it comes to warmth.

[Robbie Coldrain]

16 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

These awful cold springs really are the scourge of the modern British climate.

Springs seem to be very much feast or famine these days when it comes to warmth.

To be fair recent springs have been pretty sunny and warm. We are normally hitting the low to mid 70's down here in the Essex Mediterranean with copious amounts of sunshine. 

[MissGrace]

[danm]

1 hour ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

I totally agree. I'm a big coldie and I've been able to see for weeks that this wasn't going anywhere, at the same time the MOD thread was in FI. It seems like we're headed for weather that doesn't really please anyone for the next couple of weeks: Rainy, overcast and painfully average.

There was always a possibility that something special could materialise - it happened in March 2018 and to a lesser extent in some areas in March 2013. However, the key word there is "special", as that's what's needed to give what most people want - deep cold and thick snow. I also appreciate that some people just want to see some snow falling out of the sky and would be happy with a covering that melts within a few hours. 

I expect there will be snow around this week, most of it transitory, a few areas could hit the jackpot on the boundary line. But as ever, at this time of year, you need more and more boxes ticked to deliver the good stuff. 

[MissGrace]

The Beast from the East from my window approaching five years ago. I remember being really excited, but scared at the same time. I believe we had four snow days off from work.