Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Mapantz]

2 air frosts and several ground frosts last week, and that'll be more than this week. 

[JoeShmoe]

The Mad thread has 20 pages on if fronts will be 50 miles north or south for what will in all likelihood be 2-3 cms of wet snow at elevation and sleety pish at ground level!

[Bald Eagle]

Someone has now posted " models have no clue" somehow I don't think they know how this model thing works. 

Edited March 7, 2023 by Paul
Removed white space

[Scorcher]

5 hours ago, Weather-history said:

What awful cold springs? There's hardly been any in the last 25 years. There's been 2013 and the cold of April-May 2021 dominated that spring but other than warmth has overwhelmingly dominated recent springs with any cold periods short lived

6 of the top 8 warmest springs on record have occurred in the last 16 years. 

2013 and 2018 were both notably cold early on- granted there was a sudden flip in mid April in 2018.

2012 was also a shocker after that exceptional March.

2010 I recall also as being chilly, especially May.

I agree that we've also had a lot of warm ones but the cold ones we have had have been properly cold at times. Even April 2021 was very chilly- especially overnight.

[Scorcher]

7 hours ago, reef said:

Not often I disagree with you Scorcher but Spring is actually the season that has changed the most in recent times. In the last 27 years here only 6 individual Spring months have been 1C or more below average. That's less than any other season. Its also had more exceptionally dry (<25% rainfall) months and exceptionally sunny (>150% sunshine) months than any other season too.

CET-wise there have been far more 7.5C+ Marches and 10C+ Aprils in recent years and three out of the last 6 Mays have been 13C+.

Oh yes not denying we've had a lot of warm ones- some of the cold spring months though have been shockingly cold though.

I probably should have clarified that I didn't really mean entire springs but prolonged cold spells during springs.

March 2013 and 2018 stand out as being the main two cold months and more recently April 2021 was record breaking in terms of minima- a lot of annoying damaging hard frosts so late on in the season.

[mb018538]

Sorry, but zero interest in this cold spell for me. Partly because it's going to bring nothing barring a few chilly days here, and also because it's now spring and I don't want cold weather. Bring me some sun and mild weather!




00z GFS and ECM both show the possibility of mid or even upper teens into next week. I know that Monday aside they are outliers, but that's the sort of charts I want to be seeing now!  

[Mullet]

Just can't get interested in march snow events. Down here whatever falls generally melts in short order, and that's if half of it isn't lost to wet ground to start with.

Really has to be a full house of conditions and timing to end up with anything notable. And we know how hard it is even in the depths of winter, when you can get away with sub-optimal!

Really looking forward to having some warmth to compliment the lengthening days. 

[Stuie]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The UKMO aren’t using the op and have blown up the low more and it’s track is further north . It removes the cold and snow right upto Glasgow by T72 hrs.

You can see the differences between the fax and the raw output here .

and also really annoying in the next few  days is that somehow -8 850`s never seem to get past the Humber. The country really has pulled off a Houdini act.

Edited March 7, 2023 by Stuie

[Snowboy111]

Sooner people realise that northerlies do nothing for 90% of the country the better. Waste of time. Give me a Scandi high all day long. 

[alexisj9]

23 minutes ago, Snowboy111 said:

Sooner people realise that northerlies do nothing for 90% of the country the better. Waste of time. Give me a Scandi high all day long. 

I didn't expect much here from the northerly, but thought the lows going under with east winds would do something, and they will, but have moved to far north for my location now, àccording too GFS mean. Haven't looked else where yet.

[Matty88]

Not just northerlies - certain PV splits/SSW's also do not mean we will plunged into biblical cold (especially in March) - as this weeks 3-4 day affair clearly points out.

As history would tell you (if any of the crazed SSW fans on here cared to look) the gathering of warmth further South this time of year means any cold attack is at big risk of repel - especially a northerly (nothing new) and is usually a short lived affair - the only thing that could have changed that is a BFTE, that's the only set-up that stands a chance of longevity this time of year. Cold diving South during March onwards only tends to stoke up LP's and ultimately southerly attack. 

So this was always going to be a touch and go event / cold snap from the outset, with a risk of some transient/short lived snow. For some that's better than nothing!!

Anticipate another 1 or 2 cold snaps until winters end this year (as is usually the case) but otherwise roll on spring..... can't wait for the first warm day! 

 

[Weather-history]

49 minutes ago, Snowboy111 said:

Sooner people realise that northerlies do nothing for 90% of the country the better. Waste of time. Give me a Scandi high all day long. 

Not all Scandi highs deliver and are dependent on how cold the airmass on the underbelly and the wind flow direction.

 

This chart looks great and occurring during a notable winter of recent times but it was a pretty poor effort. 

[Weather-history]

Going off what Nick Sussex said, I have seen Met Office regional text forecasts that didn't even match the rainfall radar at time of release!

[Robbie Coldrain]

Another cold rain weather warning this morning. Remember to take care out there on any damp surfaces. 

[Paul]

For those getting frustrated by not seeing the kind of posts they want to see in the model thread. A few things which may help:

One is the ignore function - not just for users, but also you can ignore entire threads if you want. Just click the button at the top of the thread you're in (you can check and update your ignored topics here btw). 

That way, the model thread will be hidden, but the highlights thread will still be available (unless you choose to ignore that as well), for a quick update on the latest model situation. 

Secondly - please use the report button on posts you think are out of line, very off-topic etc. The team cannot read everything, so do rely on everyone on the community chipping in and reporting iffy stuff - It's not just some sort of 'get out of jail clause' the team uses when someone points out (usually after having their post moved or removed) that something similar was posted 2-hours ago. We may not always act on reports, as ultimately, what one person thinks is 'off topic' may not be the same as someone else (for info - we try to look at the impact of off topic posts, so something in the middle of the night which is unlikely to get too many replies may not be an issue, whereas when it's busy it may well be) and on occasion, a post can be read in several different ways. But we do check every single one. 

If you're unsure how to report a post, there's a guide here:

And finally, there is also the option to start a thread at any time on any weather related subject. So, if the model thread isn't doing it for you and you want something with a different focus, then please go ahead and start something. If enough people want the same thing, then great the thread will be busy and everyone wins. That also includes the regional groups - we moved them to the groups to allow additional threads etc, so someone could (for instance) start a localised model thread, or a single thread looking at an upcoming weather event. 

Edited March 7, 2023 by Paul

[LRD]

11 hours ago, JoeShmoe said:

The Mad thread has 20 pages on if fronts will be 50 miles north or south for what will in all likelihood be 2-3 cms of wet snow at elevation and sleety pish at ground level!

Yep

All that time, effort and agonising for a cm or 2 of transient slushy snow when previous talk was of a record-breaking cold March, a possible 20cm of snow in central/southern England and a 2-week severe spell, etc, etc. I know things have been bad since 2013 (with one or two exceptions) but I didn't think things were that desperate that this week is worth all the excitement

It seems that they have been talking about a feast of snow and cold, a 5-course banquet, on the MAD thread for weeks and it's now turned into looking forward to a happy meal

Typically, although the overall outlook is pretty 'meh' cold-wise, a day that I could really do without it snowing (the 10th) actually looks as though it could deliver something that is temporarily disruptive where I'm travelling to that day

Edited March 7, 2023 by LRD

[LRD]

18 minutes ago, Robbie Coldrain said:

Another cold rain weather warning this morning. Remember to take care out there on any damp surfaces. 

Indeed, it was hard work getting to work this morning through the chilly drizzle and slightly wet surfaces

Edited March 7, 2023 by LRD

[ANYWEATHER]

11 hours ago, andreas said:

Sadly the type of synoptics which when I watched the weather thirty or forty years ago would have almost definitely brought snow in the southeast appear now set to deliver us cold rain and sleet. I may be wrong - and I hope I am - but at the moment that's what seems most likely.

Not at all. 30 40 100 years ago the weather would have done exactly what it's doing now, 

[ANYWEATHER]

8 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Looking good for part 1 

In your back garden perhaps....

[winterof79]

3 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

In your back garden perhaps....

Yes and front

[Summer Sun]

Sky News are as bad as the rest "harsh road conditions"

[Metwatch]

2 hours ago, Snowboy111 said:

Sooner people realise that northerlies do nothing for 90% of the country the better. Waste of time. Give me a Scandi high all day long. 

Seems to be half half here, in the last few years sometimes easterlies do nothing, while northerlies give the best snow for many years (December 2017) and smaller events such as January 2021 and November 2021.

However a decent easterly with snow does happen time to time here, March 2018 and February 2021 e.g

Edited March 7, 2023 by Metwatch

[NewEra21]

Been saying it for days, but this whole so called cold spell was going the way of a wet fart for the south.

The real cold never even really reaches the south coast, where initially it was shown as sweeping down into France. Hence the initial northerly was looking strong and full of convection throughout the UK, but was downgraded run by run.

For what could have been, this is a sorry excuse of a cold spell. But Scotland will do well, but is that really news worthy?

[LRD]

44 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Sky News are as bad as the rest "harsh road conditions"

That reminds me of Kent Brockman from The Simpsons

Edited March 7, 2023 by LRD

[Skullzrulerz]

Cornwall isn't going to get any snow, even with this yellow warning of snow and ice, 200m and temperature is 5/6c for most of the day on Wednesday.