Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Sun Chaser]

8 hours ago, Don said:

You had better not moan about it being too warm over the coming months! 

I certainly won't be

[markyo]

8 hours ago, Mapantz said:

That's why there's a shipping forecast..

Perhaps there's 10 million people floating around in dinghy's that need a warning?

Forecasts of 39mph gusts tonight, so I've made sure to batten down the bird feeder and put paving slabs on piles of leaves.  

 

If it saves one life its worth it, what harm is it doing you??? 

[al78]

19 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Another silly wind warning out.. I'm in it with gusts of 39mph being forecast. We had 40's last week, and no warning was needed, or issued. The inconsistencies are baffling.

90% of the warning is over the sea, there's "uncertainty" about the track and depth of the low, yet the impact matrix gives it a high probability and low impact.

I fail to see what is silly about it. The models have been consistently showing the strongest winds in the English Channel but with potential 60-70mph gusts brushing SW England, the south coast and northern France, primarily over high ground and exposed coastal locations. A small shift in the track could bring more impactful winds over land so reasonable to issue a low level warning for the immediate southern coastline and the far SW England. There is the potential for 50mm of rain over high ground (particularly Exmoor and Pembrokeshire) which is why they have a very localised yellow warning for rain.

[Mapantz]

10 minutes ago, al78 said:

I fail to see what is silly about it.

We had winds like this on several days last week, there were no warnings.

Inconsistencies.

[reef]

84.0mm of rain this month here now, making it the wettest since 1999. 

On average March is the driest month of the year here in the 1991-2020 period with 41.0mm, so its 205% of normal.

[Frigid]

There's gonna be some regional variance with March, similar to Summer 2021. Down here it's been quite pleasant with sunny days and rainy nights. The second half couldn't be anymore different to what the south has experienced. It's only been properly dull since Tuesday, but still a few sunny intervals thrown in.

With the cold first half and seasonal second, I'd give this month a 7/10

[Mapantz]

It wasn't even cold during the first half of March down here.

Only two frosts, barely getting below zero. -0.4°C on the 2nd and -0.6°C on the 15th.

Mean min is 5.5°C
Mean is 8.2°C.
Only 59.5 hours of sunshine, making it the dullest March.
Rainfall at 142.8mm.

Nearly 700mm of rain since November 1st last year.

[Summer8906]

In some ways, I kind of want today to be as wet as possible, just to make the stats interesting.

Just as long as it dries up from tomorrow...

12 hours ago, Don said:

Latest Met Office Contingency planner for April to June.  No real surprises.....

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook_amj_v1.pdf

What's perhaps slightly contradictory is an indication of April being warmer, and the south being the most likely region to receive the most rainfall in April.

This would suggest an easterly type, with some cyclonic influence at times to the S, which I'd expect to be average to cool this early in the season.

Edited March 31, 2023 by Summer8906

[Catbrainz]

Thank god for the GFS showing more anticyclonic weather for April. March has at least IMBY felt more like a unsettled November with endless wet Atlantic westerlies and grey skies. It has rained at some point everyday. 

[Summer8906]

23 minutes ago, Frigid said:

There's gonna be some regional variance with March, similar to Summer 2021. Down here it's been quite pleasant with sunny days and rainy nights. The second half couldn't be anymore different to what the south has experienced. It's only been properly dull since Tuesday, but still a few sunny intervals thrown in.

With the cold first half and seasonal second, I'd give this month a 7/10

Definitely going to end up notably wet and notably dull down here.

Would be interesting to compare the final stats with March 1981 for this part of the country - synoptically there are some similarities, with a low latitude jetstream, but not low enough to keep the SW-lies at bay. In March 1981 too there was frequent Greenland blocking and high-latitude easterlies, and one or two abortive attempts by northerlies to get in, only to be pushed back by the Atlantic again. (source: archives on wetterzentrale.de).

In March 1981 also, the Atlantic suddenly ran out of steam at the end of March.

A 2/10 from me for this month I'm afraid. Not much in the way of interesting convective action either (just one day, on the 24th), just dull and damp. Best period was the first 5 days when it was dry and cold, but even that was mostly dull.

Edited March 31, 2023 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

15 hours ago, plymsunshine said:

True. Though it wasn't especially bad either, as we had some sunny days at the start, some warmth around 15-17 March and then obviously the memorable very warm snap at the end. 1C above average here regarding max temps with around 90% of sunshine average, plus it was nice and dry as well, only 6 days with precipitation recorded! A little boring until the end but I did feel it was more springlike than this month, also following on from a week of clear blue skies and mild weather at the end of February 2021.

I was actually out of the country at this time (stuck overseas due to Covid-related travel disruption), but was this widespread across the country? ISTR reading that Feb 2021 was cold until about the 14th, then persistently dull and drizzly with Tm air.

[ANYWEATHER]

14 minutes ago, Catbrainz said:

Thank god for the GFS showing more anticyclonic weather for April. March has at least IMBY felt more like a unsettled November with endless wet Atlantic westerlies and grey skies. It has rained at some point everyday. 

For heavens sake, don't take any notice of the gfs long range, totally useless

[Summer8906]

9 minutes ago, Catbrainz said:

Thank god for the GFS showing more anticyclonic weather for April. March has at least IMBY felt more like a unsettled November with endless wet Atlantic westerlies and grey skies. It has rained at some point everyday. 

Yes, it's generally varied from resembling either October, early November, or early February depending on the day.

True spring-like days have been very rare indeed. Only the 2nd, 14th, 16th (unsettled but had a fine slot for a few hours) and 27th would I consider at all spring-like.

[Wimbledon88]

Hope everyone survived the vicious storm that was forecast along with the biblical rain( from Storm Mathis whoever dreamt that one up) The catastrophisation of weather nowadays is almost sureal. No wonder the glooobal waaaaming brigade are hiding behind their made in China sofas. Still, it makes me laugh!

Makes up for yesterday's sad news about Paul O'Grady's passing. Total legend. 

[cobbett]

On 09/03/2023 at 08:52, cobbett said:

According to the BBC app its rain every single day here till the 22nd. Now that is depressing 

well this turned out right - has been 100% depressing-

[Catbrainz]

1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:

For heavens sake, don't take any notice of the gfs long range, totally useless

I tend to pay no attention to anything beyond 7 days. Taking FI forecasts like gospel only leads to disappointment or relief (Depending on your preferred weather ofc)  .  

[Froze were the Days]

So much for Fred's (BFTP) forecast of close to record cold for this month  - WRONG once again!!!!  but that doesn't stop the many likes from posters at the time, if only they knew!

Edited March 31, 2023 by Froze were the Days

[matt111]

I don’t mind wet and windy days like this, as long as there aren’t too many of them close together. What I don’t like is the fact it’s yet another day without any sun whatsoever to add to the long list of sunless days lately. 

[Sunny76]

So tired of this bloody rain. It’s been terrible for ages.

I really cannot wait for an extended dry period. 

[Sun Chaser]

A few hours of sun showing on the forecast for Monday! Praise be to the weather gods!

Edited March 31, 2023 by plymsunshine

[Bristawl Si]

32 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

So much for Fred's (BFTP) forecast of close to record cold for this month  - WRONG once again!!!!  but that doesn't stop the many likes from posters at the time, if only they knew!

He meant to say "record dullness"

[Weather Enthusiast91]

Looking forward to some more settled weather as we go into April. Whilst March has been quite a mixed month, there hasn't been much in the way of sunshine apart from the odd day. It was nice to experience some wind and rain after the very boring February but I think it has outstayed its welcome now. I do hope this upcoming settled spell actually delivers some sunshine instead of nothingness anticyclonic gloom.

 

[Weather-history]

Some really poor stats for this March out there unless you like dull and wet

Herstmonceux: 36% of the average March sunshine and 256% of the average March rainfall before today.

 

Edited March 31, 2023 by Weather-history

[al78]

5 hours ago, Mapantz said:

We had winds like this on several days last week, there were no warnings.

Inconsistencies.

Potential for 60-70 mph gusts last week?

I've just looked at the bulletins we (EuroTempest) issued last week for gusty conditions on Wednesday and Friday:

Wednesday: gusts of 45-50 mph expected over land, unlikely to exceed 60mph except locally across high ground in Scotland, but could reach 70mph in very exposed coastal regions in the far NW Scotland. Very low impacts are most likely.

Friday: Gusts over 45mph are likely across much of England and Wales potentially reaching 60-mph across very exposed coastal areas and high ground.

On Thursday morning the forecast strong gusts had dropped both in extent and magnitude and we downgraded the potential impact from very low to minimal.

For the system that is brushing the south today, the models have been consistent through the week in bringing 60-70mph gusts along southern coastal regions and parts of SW England. With the strongest winds threading a needle between England and France, any shift in the track of the low could bring these stronger winds onshore. Fortunately that didn't happen and the peak gusts stayed over the Channel.

The gusty conditions last week had a lower impact potential due to the winds across populated regions being very modest (lower than has been forecast for today in model runs this week) and impactful winds were confined to sparsely populated areas of Scotland. The storm today has, or had, the potential to bring disruptive gusts to more highly populated coastal southern counties with a greater impact potential. That to me gives some insight as to why last week's winds were not warned and today's winds were. There is also the possible additional inducement that the storm today has been named by Meteo France and so will be in the media, so the Met Office have some interest in making it look like they are monitoring the situation.

 

[Mapantz]

Just now, al78 said:

Potential for 60-70 mph gusts last week?

No.

You didn't read my previous posts..

The forecast for here, overnight, was 40mph gusts of wind, whilst inside of a yellow warning. We had 40mph gusts last week, and there wasn't a warning.

Even the Met Office' impact matrix contradicted it's written warning text.

I'll say it again, inconsistencies.