Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards

[Wimbledon88]

12 hours ago, Colin_P said:

Here it is, apologies for possibly spamming the thread, but I thought this was quite exciting.

Is this the first time I have ever seen a BBC forecast on the Mod thread..?? Says it all really.

[Gowon]

The GEM and the GFS are disgusting

The JMA as well

Edited April 14, 2023 by Gowon

[Scorcher]

The GFS is really all over the place at the moment. The ECM and GFS runs this morning couldn't be more different for the middle of next week onwards- like chalk and cheese. Much warmer from the ECM with more of a SE flow developing after Wednesday and probably temps close to or exceeding 20C for much of the country by next weekend.

[ANYWEATHER]

One thing which trends from the models regardless of temperatures is that any semi reliable settling down of the weather pattern is a long way off.....

[johnholmes]

If the 500 mb anomaly chart, see below, is close to being correct then not a very promising 6-10 day period from now> Not sure about the 8-14 either.

[Howie]

4 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

If the 500 mb anomaly chart, see below, is close to being correct then not a very promising 6-10 day period from now> Not sure about the 8-14 either.

Terrible omg.... why is it that as we git closer the models have gone all over the place. Ridiculous 

[sunny_vale]

I'd hope the ECM is more on the money this morning. 

General agreement up to around Wednesday with high pressure focusing towards the North of the UK which keeps us dry and fairly sunny with reasonable temps. Thereafter GFS takes us into Noman's land (could be worse I suppose, at least there's no intense lows over the UK like were showing yesterday) and ECM keeps the high over to the NE with a slightly more SE flow developing for a time before it rebuilds the high over the UK towards day 10. 

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

If the 500 mb anomaly chart, see below, is close to being correct then not a very promising 6-10 day period from now> Not sure about the 8-14 either.

Really?..... if that chart is accurate then wouldnt we get a Southeasterly? which would be brighter, therefore warmer.

The 8-14 is rather benign but does to me suggest a more Northeasterly feed, albeit slack, but thats dreadful for Eastern and Central areas... North Sea murk...

Either way, these charts do not IMHO support heat, nor cold...

[SizzlingHeat]

The 6z GFS brings things more in line with what the ECM has been showing, which is much improved from the 0z. I did wonder how many times the op run has been consistently at the bottom of its ensembles before it would revert slightly, which makes large differences to the weather. If GFS was correct then quite a reasonable week ahead although breezy but plenty of sunshine and reasonable temps for April out of the wind and in the sunshine.

[Rain All Night]

I see no reason for negativity this morning, the ECM ensemble mean has a clear and favourable signal until as far out as day 12.

[Scorcher]

2 hours ago, johnholmes said:

If the 500 mb anomaly chart, see below, is close to being correct then not a very promising 6-10 day period from now> Not sure about the 8-14 either.

I'm normally a fan of the anomaly charts but they have been chopping and changing a lot over the last couple of weeks. Only a few days ago they were showing dry and warm conditions for next week and it looks like the reality may be rather different.

[mushymanrob]

13 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I'm normally a fan of the anomaly charts but they have been chopping and changing a lot over the last couple of weeks. Only a few days ago they were showing dry and warm conditions for next week and it looks like the reality may be rather different.

Ive not seen much chopping and changing out of the ordinary. It is true that they are struggling to nail the building high, but the exact centre of it is crucial to whether we get warmth or cold.. obviously..

[Sunsetglimmer]

Could the gfs 06 run be falling into line with the ECM?

Edited April 14, 2023 by Sunsetglimmer

[Rain All Night]

1 hour ago, RainAllNight said:

I see no reason for negativity this morning, the ECM ensemble mean has a clear and favourable signal until as far out as day 12.

The GFS ensemble is still uninterested in the ECM's happy ending, it gets to the point of showing that vague threat of something from the northeast and then the spread goes silly.

[ANYWEATHER]

12 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

The GFS ensemble is still uninterested in the ECM's happy ending, it gets to the point of showing that vague threat of something from the northeast and then the spread goes silly.

I really dont think its clear cut at the moment ,with any model getting it right. Next week ,looks fairly straight forward but after that things really get ......Messy!

[Rain All Night]

ICON 12z has some fun blowing up the trapped low in the Atlantic!

Edited April 14, 2023 by RainAllNight

[Northwest NI]

2 hours ago, RainAllNight said:

ICON 12z has some fun blowing up the trapped low in the Atlantic!

Trapped wind usually results in……

[Summer tyre]

The Greenland low here seems to stage a spectacular collapse over 24 hours, according to GFS. Can anyone explain why this is?

[summer blizzard]

19 minutes ago, Snow tyre said:

The Greenland low here seems to stage a spectacular collapse over 24 hours, according to GFS. Can anyone explain why this is?

The Euro shows similar. 

Basically when it's forced north by our building high, a secondary low forms well south and it becomes detached from the jet stream.

[drm]

2 hours ago, Snow tyre said:

The Greenland low here seems to stage a spectacular collapse over 24 hours, according to GFS. Can anyone explain why this is?

Bang your head against a brick wall and see what happens seems apt

[Polar Maritime]

The post from Summer Blizzard saves some from banging said head on any kind of wall, A 'cut off low' looks highly possible

18 minutes ago, drm said:

Bang your head against a brick wall and see what happens seems apt

 

[drm]

4 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

The post from Summer Blizzard saves some from banging said head on any kind of wall, A 'cut off low' looks highly possible

 

Heat and storms for southern areas give me some prolonged dry weather up north Ive a, cricket square to look after

[Polar Maritime]

2 minutes ago, drm said:

Heat and storms for southern areas give me some prolonged dry weather up north Ive a, cricket square to look after

All depends on how far South the low goes.. let's see

[drm]

1 minute ago, Polar Maritime said:

All depends on how far South the low goes.. let's see

A trapped low seems to be a common feature after winter around Portugal anyone know why? 

[Polar Maritime]

Certainly has recent years, I don't think anyone knows the 'exact reason why/how just yet. But just for thought.. the climate is certainly changing, At the same time these trapped lows draw up heat 

Edited April 14, 2023 by Polar Maritime