Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards

[mountain shadow]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

If you like rain don't look at EC 00Z.

A dry run and by day 10 ,its still dry !

This is going to be an impressive period of sustained high pressure.

The Atlantic is dead.

[ANYWEATHER]

Ecm holding on to fine dry weather. Gfs not. Interesting ecm had  breakdown for southern parts last night,  doesn't mean ecm is right today though! 

[Cambrian]

The ECM weather regimes forecast update from yesterday is holding firm with the combined Atlantic ridge / blocking signal for the next couple of weeks, adding to our suspicions that the subtle changes expected around  mid month are being put back a bit, with the signal now lasting until the 18th / 19th. 

When it does eventually wane, it’s interesting that a degree of a blocking signal is maintained but it is (partly) replaced by a NAO- signal as well as a slightly more modest NAO+ signal, so we’re dropping a combination of high pressure signals for a combination of signals that together suggest that some parts of Europe will have an easterly flow and some parts a westerly flow, which together with the maintenance of a degree of blocking, suggests shallow low pressure centred somewhere along the boundary of the Atlantic and Europe.

The weekly mean pressure anomalies for 5-12, 12-19, 19-26 June are in keeping with this admittedly retro-fitted idea, continuing to show the slow advance of a low pressure anomaly over the UK and Ireland and much of Europe, suggesting a slow change to less settled conditions. 

  

The weekly mean heights anomaly charts show the Atlantic heights continuing their arduously indecisive retrogression, allowing lower heights to steadily move up from the southwest over parts of the UK and Ireland by week 3…

  

…with some warmer air working in…

  

…to potentially give us around a week or so of more mixed weather, with no surprise if it turns out to be a quite thundery spell, before solid blocking is signalled to return by the end of the month. Have a great day. 

[BlueHedgehog074]

Even the 00Z GEM, for the UK, pretty much keeps it dry towards the end of its run (examples from 168 hours onwards) lol. A very stubborn dude this High Pressure is:

Setup of the High would probably allow further cloud to spill in from the North-Sea over Eastern areas at times, especially during mornings. Not to say it will definitely unfold like this at those timeframes though, particularly later into the timeframe of the model. 

Has been welcome having this settled weather invade, even though cloud has been quite the ruler for some parts at times, but it’ll get to a point that some beastly thunderstorms (or some heavy rain) could do giving the rain shields a bit of a thump so things don’t get too overly dry. 

[danm]

QQ for some of the model experts here - what is the difference between the ECM 0.5 and ECM 0.4? On meteociel the 0.4 is newer and runs out to 240hrs, and has 4 runs a day like the GFS. Is this is a newer replacement that is being rolled out?

[Downburst]

Will be really interesting to see what happens 19 to 26 June to bring this precipitation anomaly. Low moving up is the favoured, especially since the temp is positive anomaly at the same time. 500 pressure shows sign of low pressure to the South West, perhaps wafting up some heavy rain at times. Good period to watch out.

 

BTW, when people say "growth" and the weather in summer, perhaps they are talking about the silage and hay that is being made in order to feed europe and a lot of the rest of the world. There is excellent hay making underway and that is great news, less fertilizers, better feed quality and on dry ground no land damage and half the diesel. Sorry but a comment earlier intended or not got to me. Producers will be making all sorts of calculations on how to handle meadows now and will be very keen on the current forecast for rest of June. If they can be sure of the next 10 days your food bills may well come down.

 

Pressure

,

Temps

500 hpa anomaly 

 

[danm]

14 minutes ago, Downburst said:

Will be really interesting to see what happens 19 to 26 June to bring this precipitation anomaly. Low moving up is the favoured, especially since the temp is positive anomaly at the same time. 500 pressure shows sign of low pressure to the South West, perhaps wafting up some heavy rain at times. Good period to watch out.

 

BTW, when people say "growth" and the weather in summer, perhaps they are talking about the silage and hay that is being made in order to feed europe and a lot of the rest of the world. There is excellent hay making underway and that is great news, less fertilizers, better feed quality and on dry ground no land damage and half the diesel. Sorry but a comment earlier intended or not got to me. Producers will be making all sorts of calculations on how to handle meadows now and will be very keen on the current forecast for rest of June. If they can be sure of the next 10 days your food bills may well come down.

 

Pressure

,

Temps

500 hpa anomaly 

 

Hi, do you have the same charts for the week of 10th to 17th June?

[sheikhy]

Good gosh thats ec46 signalling dry weather throughout and latest gfs 06z is a desert again🌡!!!

[damianslaw]

28 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Good gosh thats ec46 signalling dry weather throughout and latest gfs 06z is a desert again🌡!!!

GFS has been a bit all over the place in its later frames last few runs, the 6z looks an outlier with suggestion of heights sinking to the SW, all anomalies and ensembles going for lower heights in same region. Suspect the models are picking up in a change mid month but reacting with different outputs. Must say the persistance of this high is quite remarkable I can't recall a time such high pressure to south of Iceland for so long, someone said strat induced combined with ENSO state and other factors all combining to an abnormal state of affairs i.e. no movement in the pattern. 

Edited June 2, 2023 by damianslaw

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

GFS has been a bit all over the place in its later frames last few runs, the 6z looks an outlier with suggestion of heights sinking to the SW, all anomalies and ensembles going for lower heights in same region. Suspect the models are picking up in a change mid month but reacting with different outputs. Must say the persistance of this high is quite remarkable I can't recall a time such high pressure to south of Iceland for so long, someone said strat induced combined with ENSO state and other factors all combining to an abnormal state of affairs i.e. no movement in the pattern. 

What i find astonishing at the moment is no matter where the high is forecasted to be whether its to the west or north or south or east!!in the end we just have some form of high pressure close to us forever lol!!!

[Mike Poole]

1 hour ago, danm said:

QQ for some of the model experts here - what is the difference between the ECM 0.5 and ECM 0.4? On meteociel the 0.4 is newer and runs out to 240hrs, and has 4 runs a day like the GFS. Is this is a newer replacement that is being rolled out?

As I understand it, they are different plotting resolution data from the same operational runs.  The ECM has (for a while at least) had 4 runs a day, but the 6z and 18z don’t beyond T90, we haven’t been able to see them before the new data were made available on Meteociel etc.  

Translated from Meteociel for the older 0.5:

‘These charts present the forecasts of the ECMWF model (also called CEP) resolution 0.5° for the next 7/10 days. The deterministic charts are updated as soon as the raw data is published around 8:10 p.m. and 8:10 p.m., and the average and standard deviation charts of the set are available around 10:30 p.m. and 10:30 a.m. The anomalies are calculated from the CFSR 1979-2009 climatology.

New charts from the provision of data in Open-Data in January 2022 are available one hour later on the CEP/ECMWF 0.4° page.’

Edited June 2, 2023 by Mike Poole

[Northernlights]

12 hours ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Growth of what?

Probably grass and crops in fields and gardens

 We are starting to show signs of drought up here especially on sandy soils near the coast 

[Neilsouth]

3 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

This is going to be an impressive period of sustained high pressure.

The Atlantic is dead.

 

You wouldn't think it was a sustained high pressure, what with all the cloud and drizzle in the east for days on end

[damianslaw]

38 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

What i find astonishing at the moment is no matter where the high is forecasted to be whether its to the west or north or south or east!!in the end we just have some form of high pressure close to us forever lol!!!

The equivalent of the Icelandic low between Nov and Jan, and succession of low after low in many years, but even then there is some day to day variance with briefer drier period before next low arrives, and such conditions are to be much more expected.

Looking back at notable dry spells I suspect the synoptic pattern we have now is the only one that can produce nationwide dryness and therefore not unprecedented. Indeed in winter such highs have produced cold but bone dry weather in severe winters to West Scotland for example 62-63. Feb 86 was more or less bone dry in NW parts, and we had a high in same place. 

[Andy Bown]

2 hours ago, Downburst said:

Will be really interesting to see what happens 19 to 26 June to bring this precipitation anomaly. Low moving up is the favoured, especially since the temp is positive anomaly at the same time. 500 pressure shows sign of low pressure to the South West, perhaps wafting up some heavy rain at times. Good period to watch out.

 

Just in time for Glastonbury! Dust bowl until day 1 probably!

[Downburst]

2 hours ago, danm said:

Hi, do you have the same charts for the week of 10th to 17th June?

https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Range"%3A["Extended (42 days)"]}

You can play around in there, won't take long to get the hang of it

the 46 day run goes Monday to Monday, so not exact dates you need, but close enough for a weekly mean. These charts are only a very broad indication of what the week might be like as 7 days mean can hide a lot of weather, although in this case of all cases I think with such little momentum they are useful. Otherwise I look at them, but prefer the normal twice daily ECM runs, which after 5 days are not highly accurate.

 

46 day - Week  12 to 19 June;

Temps:

Rain ( this suggests there'll be slightly less than average for the week, so some rain around possible)

Pressure Chart showing deviation from the mean for this week. So climatic norm for southern England, higher than climatic norm for Scotland.

 

Pressure at 500 hPa

 

The High Res forecast for the 10th shows Pressure still high over Scotland, but it is weakening and you can see the prediction of rain to the south of Ireland, that kind of thing might push up around that time

Early hours of Monday 11th the pressure has dropped and this is more conducive to instability from the south or west. We have to see. On the face of it the further north the better for those that want it dry for this week is pretty much what one might expect, temps good.

 

[summer blizzard]

As ever, our high pressure which spawned over the UK on 16th May seeks to provide us with interest with modelling now differing yet again from its attemped retreat a few days ago. 

So essentially the reason for this is that right now a suface low has formed in the western Atlantic and over the next week will proceed to follow the southern stream towards the Azores. 

However, our problem starts at around day 5 when another low forms behind, leaving Newfoundland. 

The interaction of these two lows (or lack of) generates 3 scenarios in the models this morning. 

1) The western low absorbs the Azores Low. This is the Euro 0z scenario which basically resets the pattern as we cycle again. 

2) The two lows do not phase and energy stays in the eastern low. The UKMO 0z and GFS 0z both kept the eastern low strong allowing the high to be sucked west (UKMO only goes to day 7). This scenario is the most likely to complete retrogression. 

3) The western low becomes dominant but the eastern low dies rather than gets absorbed. This was the scenario of the GEM 0z and GFS6z. This scenario is the one most likely to produce a hot outcome as the high is not pulled west and slowly sinks east drawing in warmer air. 

[Metwatch]

This morning's ECM up to 10 days away.

Spot the blocking high pressure.

[TwisterGirl81]

On 31/05/2023 at 16:06, JR319 said:

I think they meant that the positioning of this high pressure has meant for us in the East, we’ve been plagued with thick cloud and cool temperatures, which have been persistent pretty much all day, for multiple days now. They aren’t asking for rain and cooler temperatures. 
 

The temperature contrast on this chart is crazy and you can really see where the cloud is stubborn to break up. 
 

My bad, sorry, it has been night and day from east to west, been absolutely gorgeous here

[danm]

19 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

This morning's ECM up to 10 days away.

Spot the blocking high pressure.

Slightly worrying for those of us with holidays planned in the Med. off to Greece next Saturday. Touch and go as to whether we get some showers. 

Edited June 2, 2023 by danm

[Guest]

17 minutes ago, danm said:

Slightly worrying for those of us with holidays planned in the Med. off to Greece next Saturday. Touch and go as to whether we get some showers. 

I went to Spain three weeks ago and got caught up in this and can’t believe the pattern hasn’t budged. Going to Egypt in two weeks and it even rained there…..

[Don]

8 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I went to Spain three weeks ago and got caught up in this and can’t believe the pattern hasn’t budged. Going to Egypt in two weeks and it even rained there…..

Going to Cyprus on the 21st, so hope the weather is ok there.  I don't want it too hot but neither do I want rain either!

[danm]

28 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I went to Spain three weeks ago and got caught up in this and can’t believe the pattern hasn’t budged. Going to Egypt in two weeks and it even rained there…..

Yep I’m a little bit worried. The part of Greece we’re going to actually looks nice this week coming up, but we’ll have to see about next Saturday onwards. Still a reasonably long way off. 

[stodge]

Evening all

The prolonged period of dry anticyclonic weather goes on.

The HP remains stuck between Iceland, Greenland and Scotland with the resulting cut off LP spinning round just to the NE of the Azores leaving the E'ly or NE'ly air flow strongest through the Channel. Our cruise ship trip to Guernsey last Friday was cancelled and it would have been the same today.

It's a synoptic pattern we don't often see persist - I do recall one winter when we had long spells of HP between Iceland and Scotland - but this one looks locked in for the next 7-10 days at least. Further on, the HP looks to re-orient to a more north-south pattern and that allows a slack N'ly flow with a broad but shallow trough developing over southern Scandinavia so where anyone can see heat from at this stage I don't know - very early days for summer of course.

Until we see any kind of a return to "normal" synoptics - the Azores HP being where it should be and some activity in the Atlantic - we're stuck in this curious synoptic rut with persistent heights to the north and north west and a cut off LP annoying the fish near the Azores. The broad but shallow LP over Europe may well provide some Mediterranean regions with unseasonal rainfall but for the British Isles it's all fairly simple. The south gets the wind and the cooler weather but for the north and I'd venture especially the North-West Highlands and Islands, it must be close to perfection. 

Sandwood Bay Beach must be sublime in conditions like this...

[cheeky_monkey]

44 minutes ago, Don said:

Going to Cyprus on the 21st, so hope the weather is ok there.  I don't want it too hot but neither do I want rain either!

love Cyprus..where on the island are you going?