Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards

[Guest]

Im more than happy with this sunshine and warmth. Not bothered about storms yet…. 

[sheikhy]

Must say gfs looking very interesting for storm lovers from saturday!warm humid everything seems perfect for it!!! 

Also dew points get close to 20 degrees widely across england from saturday through to wednesday!man its gona feel sweaty!!!

Edited June 5, 2023 by sheikhy

[damianslaw]

8 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS doesn't do things by half!!

Warm settled spell still going deep into FI

These synoptics suggest instability, not settled. 

Edited June 5, 2023 by damianslaw

[Scorcher]

21 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

These synoptics suggest instability, not settled. 

Not sure that particular chart suggests instability to me. Not completely settled perhaps but lots of dry sunny weather as well.

[danm]

4 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Not sure that particular chart suggests instability to me. Not completely settled perhaps but lots of dry sunny weather as well.

That's what I was thinking....

[Weather Boy]

I know that it's the model thread, but I don't really see the merit in discussing the likely surface conditions relating to a chart that has close to 0% chance of verifying, given the range of the chart. No offence intended to all those doing so! 

[Downburst]

Im a simple man myself. But I call this retrogressive, in the sense that for weeks the high hasn’t moved east and is north west of us. But there you go, apparently it’s an illusion. 

end of latest ecm shows high slap over the new Azores, AKA Iceland.

 

[Sunny76]

5 hours ago, sheikhy said:

Must say gfs looking very interesting for storm lovers from saturday!warm humid everything seems perfect for it!!! 

Also dew points get close to 20 degrees widely across england from saturday through to wednesday!man its gona feel sweaty!!!

I want some warm muggy nights. 
 

Had enough of the cool clear or cloudy cool nights. They can bugger off until September.

[Howie]

GFS persistent that there'll be some wide spread rain over the weekend 

[January Snowstorm]

The breakdown at the weekend could be very brief and all the while the heat is building. Already close on drought here with 26C recorded this afternoon in Western Ireland (Shannon)

[Met4Cast]

Well.. we'll have the first cut off Iberian low as we head towards this weekend helping to pump some real warmth northwards into the UK along with I suspect some unstable, thundery conditions too. 

This pattern is one I wouldn't be surprised to see repeating throughout the summer period, particularly into July. Further WWB's in the Pacific are being forecast as El Nino continues to develop. Expecting to see a subsequent rise in overall AAM towards the middle or just after the middle of June.

This working in tandem with the MJO progression I'd not be surprised to see warm conditions frequent our shores through July too. Increasingly of the opinion that summer wont necessarily be marked by extreme high temperatures like last year, but instead marked but persistently above average temperatures. 

Cut off lows > Warm/hot weather > thundery breakdowns > repeat.

Edited June 5, 2023 by Met4Cast

[danm]

9 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Well.. we'll have the first cut off Iberian low as we head towards this weekend helping to pump some real warmth northwards into the UK along with I suspect some unstable, thundery conditions too. 

This pattern is one I wouldn't be surprised to see repeating throughout the summer period, particularly into July. Further WWB's in the Pacific are being forecast as El Nino continues to develop. Expecting to see a subsequent rise in overall AAM towards the middle or just after the middle of June.

This working in tandem with the MJO progression I'd not be surprised to see warm conditions to frequent our shores through July too. Increasingly of the opinion that summer wont necessarily be marked by extreme high temperatures like last year, but instead marked but persistently above average temperatures. 

Cut off lows > Warm/hot weather > thundery breakdowns > repeat.

 

 

A set up that if it were to come to pass would flip the current pattern where west is best, to one which will see the driest, warmest weather towards the SE, with the west more susceptible to rain (although with this pattern we all will at times). 

[danm]

Not sure if people on here view the UKMO 0.1 HD run, which is at a higher resolution than the raw UKMO run (10km) and goes out to 168hrs: 

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

Météociel propose le modèle UKMO jusqu'à 168h. Cartes de prévision des précipitations, du vent, des températures

Edited June 5, 2023 by danm

[danm]

2 minutes ago, danm said:

Not sure if people on here view the UKMO 0.1 HD run, which is at a higher resolution than the raw UKMO run (10km) and goes out to 168hrs: 

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

Météociel propose le modèle UKMO jusqu'à 168h. Cartes de prévision des précipitations, du vent, des températures

Here are the 156hrs and 168hr frames from the 12z:

[ANYWEATHER]

42 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

The breakdown at the weekend could be very brief and all the while the heat is building. Already close on drought here with 26C recorded this afternoon in Western Ireland (Shannon)

Enjoy the dry conditions, it will be a distant memory soon , ireland is going to soak.....!

[AltonMatthew]

But does recent output point to an end of the north sea cloud fest at the eastern coasts?

But does recent output point to an end of the north sea cloud fest at the eastern coasts?

But does recent output point to an end of the north sea cloud fest at the eastern coasts?

[DR(S)NO]

26 minutes ago, AltonMatthew said:

But does recent output point to an end of the north sea cloud fest at the eastern coasts?

But does recent output point to an end of the north sea cloud fest at the eastern coasts?

But does recent output point to an end of the north sea cloud fest at the eastern coasts?

Not sure what you mean… could you say it again?

[Cambrian]

Some very high levels of instability beginning to show on the 850 hPa Theta-E charts for Friday afternoon through to Sunday morning, day 4 to 6. These are from the 12z GFS operational run, the very rich red hues showing an area of high level of available energy and high potential instability working it’s way up over the UK and Ireland. 

 

The theoretical value of 46 degrees Celsius is the temperature the air would have been if all of the moisture had been condensed out of it and it was at sea level, putting us on a par with many parts of Southern Europe for that burst. 

The front edge of the wave of higher instability (Theta-E around 42 degrees) precedes the modelled precipitation by a few hours, here on the charts for 114h,

  

the main belt of showers and heaviest precipitation embedded in the middle of the zone, with the highest Theta-E values, as it all trundles north firstly over southern parts of the UK and Ireland during Friday night into Saturday, and then over northern parts later on Saturday into Sunday morning. Potential for some particularly severe storms later on Saturday afternoon over northern and eastern parts of England and Ulster with the peak instability coinciding with maximal afternoon heating. 

The timing and intensity is no doubt all going to be refined in the interim but going on the 12z GFS op, it does look like there’s plenty of scope for fun and games this weekend. 

Edited June 5, 2023 by Cambrian

[AltonMatthew]

18 minutes ago, DR(S)NO said:

Not sure what you mean… could you say it again?

I have no idea why it came up multiple times. im crap at forum usage. But Id still like to know from those better educated at reading models.

[NorthSeaCloud]

5 hours ago, damianslaw said:

These synoptics suggest instability, not settled. 

That’s not that unstable there might be a few showers but overall that looks warm and dry away from the east coast again! 

Edited June 5, 2023 by NorthSeaCloud

[viking_smb]

another part of the forum, maderia airport is shut due to the heavy rain, I think it will be very very heavy rain for us this weekend, storms will be daytime coinciding with daytime heating 

Edited June 5, 2023 by viking_smb

[January Snowstorm]

The ecm this evening is looking much more thundery/unsettled than its morning run. Things firming up now quite quickly on a bay of Biscay low moving up and perhaps remaining in situ next weekend. The models might be struggling but those of us old enough have seen this weather type quite a lot through the years! As Ian McCaskill used to say three fine days followed by a thunderstorm!!

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 23/05/2023 at 14:04, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

About 3 weeks on from that and we are at that point of MJO activity across the Pacific 

 

Matching to the composites with phase 5>7 for May+June 

We can see the evolution of the Atlantic high which is currently the main driver of the UK weather this begins to transition to an Atlantic trough with possibilities for the high to reposition further east which with favourable alignment might setup the first plume opportunity within 3-4 weeks 

I especially like this composite for accuracy of the recent setup, Note the trough over Italy which I'll discuss in a sec 

 

 

CFS in agreement pretty much and beginning signs for the Atlantic trough and high further east

Incredible that the low that started across the UK evolved into a stagnant trough parked over Italy delivering record rain amounts and sadly Fatal flooding

 

We also did have heavy snow in Iceland with blizzard warnings on 15th May

'I'd say we could have high pressure records and/or high temperature records broken across the Pacific Northwest and Alaska / Canada'

Amazingly the smoke from the wildfires (especially in Alberta) are being moved across the Atlantic and over the UK

 

 

On 23/05/2023 at 14:04, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

We can see the evolution of the Atlantic high which is currently the main driver of the UK weather this begins to transition to an Atlantic trough with possibilities for the high to reposition further east which with favourable alignment might setup the first plume opportunity within 3-4 weeks 

  

Intuition tells me we are probably just a slight bit early for a proper plume pattern though clearly we're trending in that direction still a bit of a slower evolution, though i suspect the next MJO cycle could be the catalyst required to get to that setup proper.

Speaking of the MJO again with recent activity in the Pacific we are seeing an active Jet Streak and troughing toward California (remember my posts from winter this was an almost non stop pattern then)

Might get some impressive severe wx action as this trough ejects further east in the near term 

More examples of how the atmosphere has been in a repetitive state with similar anomalous pressure setups throughout May which are almost a carbon copy of our current pattern 

May

June 

What do we mean by using the word 'anomalous' basically it can apply to either high pressure or low pressure (in the cases above its mostly the retrogressive Highs across Canada and UK / Atlantic I'll give another link showing this below) if you look at the charts from November + December 2010 of the Greenland Blocking that's a really good case too.

A few more points to watch 

• Official classification from BOM of El Ninò. I expect once the current WWB has done its thing we will get the announcement (taking a guess maybe last week of June > week 1 of July)
• Possible tropical nature within the low to the SW of the UK with Atlantic MDR SST values still increasing

Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV

 

[viking_smb]

10 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

The ecm this evening is looking much more thundery/unsettled than its morning run. Things firming up now quite quickly on a bay of Biscay low moving up and perhaps remaining in situ next weekend. The models might be struggling but those of us old enough have seen this weather type quite a lot through the years! As Ian McCaskill used to say three fine days followed by a thunderstorm!!

I expect the models will chop and change over the next couple of days,

[Guest]

50 minutes ago, Cambrian said:

Some very high levels of instability beginning to show on the 850 hPa Theta-E charts for Friday afternoon through to Sunday morning, day 4 to 6. These are from the 12z GFS operational run, the very rich red hues showing an area of high level of available energy and high potential instability working it’s way up over the UK and Ireland. 

 

The theoretical value of 46 degrees Celsius is the temperature the air would have been if all of the moisture had been condensed out of it and it was at sea level, putting us on a par with many parts of Southern Europe for that burst. 

The front edge of the wave of higher instability (Theta-E around 42 degrees) precedes the modelled precipitation by a few hours, here on the charts for 114h,

  

the main belt of showers and heaviest precipitation embedded in the middle of the zone, with the highest Theta-E values, as it all trundles north firstly over southern parts of the UK and Ireland during Friday night into Saturday, and then over northern parts later on Saturday into Sunday morning. Potential for some particularly severe storms later on Saturday afternoon over northern and eastern parts of England and Ulster with the peak instability coinciding with maximal afternoon heating. 

The timing and intensity is no doubt all going to be refined in the interim but going on the 12z GFS op, it does look like there’s plenty of scope for fun and games this weekend. 

GFS is massively overcooking moisture available in my opinion. It was 5-6C out on it dew points today, by the weekend it’s suggesting 15-20C. Despite higher SST’s this seems wildly optimistic.