Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards

[mushymanrob]

3 hours ago, mb018538 said:

This mornings output starting to follow the anomalies....after a more unsettled week or so of weather starting from this weekend, by next weekend high pressure is building in once again.

The 8-14 is even better imho..

 

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, Captain Shortwave said:

 

ECM ensembles - Strong trend for the Azores high to extend through Western Europe with a trough to our west.

 

GFS similar

 

It is more a question of how the specifics will pan out. There is scope for southerlies, but also less hot solutions if the high doesn’t dominate as strongly.
 

 

 

A far more typical summer pattern. Azores high ridging to the NE, low heights to our NW, something we have seen little of for quite some time.

The question is the extent to which the azores high ridges NE, will it sit in situ and pulled back by low heights to our west/nw, or will these migrate NW or stall and we see another heat pump.

The atlantic does though look like it is stirring, as often the case in late June, waking up from its late spring slumber. I can see the classic NW- SE divide back in its normal state i.e. wet and cooler NW, drier warmer SE. 

How the pattern evolves through next week could set the template for the rest of summer 2023 either a continuation of the very warm/hot conditions with intermittent spells of thundery rain which in time would both become more extreme, or something perhaps more normal, more temporary spells of warm/ hot weather brought on by brief plumes pushed aside by more atlantic mobility sometimes bringing rain more so to the north and west, sometimes more settled weather as the azores high noses NE.  

Edited June 15, 2023 by damianslaw

[Downburst]

Overnight ECM 46 run. So next week is somewhat lower pressure,

 

but a slack flow and temps above average and rainfall normal to below everywhere. The week after is interesting.

500hPa anomaly 26th June to July 3

 

The surface anomaly for the same period ending June into July from top down. Can we call that bang on normal for climate? Hint of southerly flow.

Rainfall, not wet, not perfectly dry.

Temps (warmer than average)

[sheikhy]

Just now, Downburst said:

Overnight ECM 46 run. So next week is somewhat lower pressure,

 

but a slack flow and temps above average and rainfall normal to below everywhere. The week after is interesting.

500hPa anomaly 26th June to July 3

 

The surface anomaly for the same period ending June into July from top down. Can we call that bang on normal for climate? Hint of southerly flow.

Rainfall, not wet, not perfectly dry.

Temps (warmer than average)

Looks fully high pressure dominated to me!!!!bring it on!!!

[danm]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

A far more typical summer pattern. Azores high ridging to the NE, low heights to our NW, something we have seen little of for quite some time.

The question is the extent to which the azores high ridges NE, will it sit in situ and pulled back by low heights to our west/nw, or will these migrate NW or stall and we see another heat pump.

The atlantic does though look like it is stirring, as often the case in late June, waking up from its late spring slumber. I can see the classic NW- SE divide back in its normal state i.e. wet and cooler NW, drier warmer SE. 

How the pattern evolves through next week could set the template for the rest of summer 2023 either a continuation of the very warm/hot conditions with intermittent spells of thundery rain which in time would both become more extreme, or something perhaps more normal, more temporary spells of warm/ hot weather brought on by brief plumes pushed aside by more atlantic mobility sometimes bringing rain more so to the north and west, sometimes more settled weather as the azores high noses NE.  

Yep all indications for mid late next week onwards is for a more traditional NW/SE split taking shape, although if the Azores high ridges all the way across the UK then we’ll all be under warm and sunny skies. However this will be a very different set up to what we went through in May and early June, so instead of the east being susceptible to cloud and cooler temperatures, it’ll be the north and west more susceptible to cloud and rain. 

[Downburst]

6 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Looks fully high pressure dominated to me!!!!bring it on!!!

That the upper pressure anomaly for the week, so not necessarily surface high. Here's the surface take for the entire week mean. Not bad for Leicester.

[JoeShmoe]

That ECM 46 - interesting how wetter than average it is in SE europe and how much drier and warmer it is in NW europe

What would the warm atlantic be doing (if anything) to aid that?

[Djdazzle]

What is becoming noticeable in recent summers is that there is so much heat to tap into to the south of us. We don't always tap into it, but it's there. Same for this summer - lots of plume potential and I feel that it's only a matter of time before we get a hit. The models keep hinting at this into FI.

It feels like 35C is becoming a similar probability to what 32C was a few decades ago. 

[Sunsetglimmer]

Potentially mid twenties every day for the rest of the month here in London looking at the models, I imagine with showers and storms around it will feel pretty humid as well quite something for June July and august are usually the warmest months 

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, Sunsetglimmer said:

Potentially mid twenties every day for the rest of the month here in London looking at the models, I imagine with showers and storms around it will feel pretty humid as well quite something for June July and august are usually the warmest months 

I’ve been thinking that. London quite regularly sees temperatures in the mid high twenties throughout mid to late summer. This year it’s early summer (As well?). South East’s climate is becoming more and more Mediterranean like.

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, Downburst said:

Overnight ECM 46 run. So next week is somewhat lower pressure,

 

but a slack flow and temps above average and rainfall normal to below everywhere. The week after is interesting.

500hPa anomaly 26th June to July 3

 

The surface anomaly for the same period ending June into July from top down. Can we call that bang on normal for climate? Hint of southerly flow.

Rainfall, not wet, not perfectly dry.

Temps (warmer than average)

Yes Turkey in particular..

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, Downburst said:

Overnight ECM 46 run. So next week is somewhat lower pressure,

 

but a slack flow and temps above average and rainfall normal to below everywhere. The week after is interesting.

500hPa anomaly 26th June to July 3

 

The surface anomaly for the same period ending June into July from top down. Can we call that bang on normal for climate? Hint of southerly flow.

Rainfall, not wet, not perfectly dry.

Temps (warmer than average)

Erm... they are mondays charts, the new ones are issued tonight i believe

 

[Bats32]

14 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Erm... they are mondays charts, the new ones are issued tonight i believe

 

Are they not issued everyday now? I know some are.

Edited June 15, 2023 by Bats32

[danm]

1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

What is becoming noticeable in recent summers is that there is so much heat to tap into to the south of us. We don't always tap into it, but it's there. Same for this summer - lots of plume potential and I feel that it's only a matter of time before we get a hit. The models keep hinting at this into FI.

It feels like 35C is becoming a similar probability to what 32C was a few decades ago. 

Absolutely agree. After 1990, there wasn’t a 35c+ day until 2003. We then had 36c in 2006 and I’d say since about 2015 they’re almost becoming an annual occurrence. 

[mushymanrob]

56 minutes ago, Bats32 said:

Are they not issued everyday now? I know some are.

not to my knowledge, Monday and Thursday evenings... it tells you on the left the date of release

Edited June 15, 2023 by mushymanrob

[Captain Shortwave]

Rather progressive from the GFS, high pressure built across the UK by day 7

 

The GEM still has shallow lows nearby with some showers still around.

[Downburst]

2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Erm... they are mondays charts, the new ones are issued tonight i believe

 

They are Wednesdays June 14 Charts. As announced they now run daily Great news.

Edited June 15, 2023 by Downburst

[sheikhy]

Gfs sides with earlier ecm!!rain sunday then back to warmth and dryness!!!

[Guest]

GFS looking to fire up the heat pump into FI  

 

 

Also a growing trend to shift the low away shortly after midweek and high pressure to build in from the south more readily.

[Downburst]

Yes, 240 hr on the GFS 12Z and it ties in with the ECM weeklies. Good news for all in these charts. Notice high nightime temps (the warmer seas???). Man alive, all those summers of hoping for charts like these. Don't complain anyone We are not even into mid Summer even on these FI charts. 

[Maz]

17 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

GFS looking to fire up the heat pump into FI  

 

 

Also a growing trend to shift the low away shortly after midweek and high pressure to build in from the south more readily.

Indeed, two days after that chart, with high drifting east and the low in the Atlantic acting as the pump, it would likely be very hot.

Runs very consistent now on a big build of heat in SW Europe.  Many also showing high building and drifting east with a cut off Atlantic low cranking the heat north

….too far out to have confidence, but all very reminiscent of the start of the run up to last July’s extremes.  
 

(actually two days later the LP and HP barely moved, hence hot,not scorching…the building blocks are in place though)

Edited June 15, 2023 by Maz

[Downburst]

I mean please

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, MattStoke said:

I’ve been thinking that. London quite regularly sees temperatures in the mid high twenties throughout mid to late summer. This year it’s early summer (As well?). South East’s climate is becoming more and more Mediterranean like.

I guess this June is showing how warm a month it can be under the right circumstances and conditions. A bit like the Dec of 2010 that showed how brutally cold Dec can be again under right circumstances and conditions, a taste of which happened in Dec last year. We've had a number of very warm Junes recently such as 2006, 2017, 2018 and 2020 but not quite with the synoptics of now or the same SSTs as now.

 

Edited June 15, 2023 by damianslaw

[MattStoke]

Just now, damianslaw said:

I guess this June is showing how warm a month it can be under the right circumstances and conditions. A bit like the Dec of 2010 that showed how brutally cold Dec can be again under right curcumstances and conditions, a taste of which happened in Dec last year.

 

Aye but I doubt we’ll see many December 2010s again whereas I would bet against more Junes like this.

[damianslaw]

Just now, MattStoke said:

Aye but I doubt we’ll see many December 2010s again whereas I would bet against more Junes like this.

Never know in these more extreme times, a freezing Jan may pop up out of the blue from nowhere, the cold last Dec although shortlived was very potent, wasn't strat warming influenced and gives cause for some risk, albeit very slim I imagine.

Anyhow this is going off topic..