Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards

[sheikhy]

6 minutes ago, bomdabass said:

This is why you never moan about warm, dry weather. It will inevitably end. 24 days of good weather coming to an end for Glasgow. 

Fortunately Sicily looks like being back to normal just in time for me heading there. And the forecast in Glasgow should mean enough rain that i won't come back to lots of wilting tomato plants.

 

Thats why i never complain about this kind of weather cos i know at some point it will come to an end whether its a few weeks a month 2 or 3 months it will come to an end and we pretty much guaranteeed to get copious amounts of rainfall eventually anyway considering the part of the world we are located on and bog standard british weather!!!lets hope the 12zs upgrade the high further north!!

[mb018538]

A definite wobble over the last day or so - if pressure doesn't build in strongly over the 8-10 day period and stays flat, then it could open the floodgates a little bit like the 6z op run.



6z is bottom end for the back of the run, but it now looks about 50/50 which way it goes, when it more like 75/25 in favour of settled yesterday.

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

Im not happy about this development, the EPS has dropped the previously blocked outlook and now suggests more mobility and a deeper low to our near North... This is tied in to the current ops wobbling about pressure build next weekend and beyond. The question is - are these runs onto something? is our long term blocked pattern really going to be eroded, or are these charts over cooking to strength of the Atlantic influence? It must be noted that the NOAA charts that dont quite have this comfortably in range, support this pattern.

It begs the question though...this seems to have happened a lot so far this year with the anomalies- taking about turns etc and backtracking.

[damianslaw]

I'll say it again, uncanny how the current heatwave that set in 10th June ending on 18th June, matches the very cold spell 10-18 Dec.... two opposite ends of the year, early heat, early cold.

[MP-R]

Gotta say the GFS really does have a late August / September look about it... even ending with a cool northerly  Not too worried about it at the moment, but if it starts becoming a trend then it may be time to. I'd expect the pattern to be further north than the 06Z shows, unless the SSTs miraculously cool down and the jet stream sinks southwards in that time lol.

[sunny_vale]

2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

A definite wobble over the last day or so - if pressure doesn't build in strongly over the 8-10 day period and stays flat, then it could open the floodgates a little bit like the 6z op run.



6z is bottom end for the back of the run, but it now looks about 50/50 which way it goes, when it more like 75/25 in favour of settled yesterday.

For southern areas at least the consensus seems to be there for a rise in pressure after Tuesday/Wednesday. It will be interesting to see what the next few runs show beyond this. From a southern perspective, I haven't seen any runs that particularly concern me and many do see some heat coming in more towards the SE, especially on the GEM. Even then the ECM still doesn't properly bring the low to the NW until T240. Nonetheless, there is certainly a trend for low pressure to be affecting North Western areas a bit more and the GFS develops a more westerly flow (traditional N/S split as alluded to I guess). Let's hope this reverts and we see the high pressure from the south asserting itself all the way north again - rather than this trend spreading further and further south as we approach . . .

 

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, sunny_vale said:

For southern areas at least the consensus seems to be there for a rise in pressure after Tuesday/Wednesday. It will be interesting to see what the next few runs show beyond this. From a southern perspective, I haven't seen any runs that particularly concern me and many do see some heat coming in more towards the SE, especially on the GEM. Even then the ECM still doesn't properly bring the low to the NW until T240. Nonetheless, there is certainly a trend for low pressure to be affecting North Western areas a bit more and the GFS develops a more westerly flow (traditional N/S split as alluded to I guess). Let's hope this reverts and we see the high pressure from the south asserting itself all the way north again - rather than this trend spreading further and further south as we approach . . .

 

Just hints the atlantic is making a come back, to expect such a blocked episode as we have endured for many weeks to sustain is expecting too much.

At least for a time it does appear we are reverting back to something far more normal than the very abnormal past few weeks i.e. wettest, dullest and coolest conditions further north and west, not saying it is going to turn predominantly unsettled or particularly cool indeed even in a westerly source the atlantic is very mild and temps still stay above average. More that a more typical NW-SE divide looks to be unfolding, the south and east likely to hold on to warm dry weather for periods of time. 

Whether this a short term trend and we go back to what we've seen by mid July remains to be seen. 

 

Edited June 16, 2023 by damianslaw

[mb018538]

 

GEM still has some stronger ridging, but gfs continues to go the other way so that it’s barely settled at all.

[Don]

6 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Whether this a short term trend and we go back to what we've seen by mid July remains to be seen. 

My hunch is that this is a short term trend and we will soon be back into a similar pattern of the last week or so.

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Don said:

My hunch is that this is a short term trend and we will soon be back into a similar pattern of the last week or so.

My hunch too, actually.

Models so far at T168:

Like this morning, UKMO the pick.  GEM has a clear ridge moving in, GFS rather more tentative.  I feel at the moment, there is sufficient uncertainty at this timescale that to make assumptions about what happens thereafter won’t really shed much useful light.  One thought, remembering 2018, the high pressure that year favoured the northwest for early summer, then southern areas got in on the act later in June, so as well as a return to the previous pattern or a resurgence of the Atlantic, a high favouring southern areas perhaps another possibility in the mix.  But more runs needed…  

[damianslaw]

7 minutes ago, Don said:

My hunch is that this is a short term trend and we will soon be back into a similar pattern of the last week or so.

Shall see but the trend is for more of an atlantic influence, high pressure will have a harder time having full say. All very normal as we reach late June.

[northwestsnow]

UKMO 168 gets a

[mb018538]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO 168 gets a

Much cleaner build from the ukmo, no mess hanging back. See what ecm says..

[northwestsnow]

25 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Much cleaner build from the ukmo, no mess hanging back. See what ecm says..

I dare say it'd be  cloudy IMBY but looks a cracker for the SE/E England to me..

[sunny_vale]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Just hints the atlantic is making a come back, to expect such a blocked episode as we have endured for many weeks to sustain is expecting too much.

At least for a time it does appear we are reverting back to something far more normal than the very abnormal past few weeks i.e. wettest, dullest and coolest conditions further north and west, not saying it is going to turn predominantly unsettled or particularly cool indeed even in a westerly source the atlantic is very mild and temps still stay above average. More that a more typical NW-SE divide looks to be unfolding, the south and east likely to hold on to warm dry weather for periods of time. 

Whether this a short term trend and we go back to what we've seen by mid July remains to be seen. 

 

It does feel like the hiatus is perhaps coming to a close you’re right. Still seeing some very ‘summer for everyone’ charts though so hopefully the pattern switches (if and when it does) in such a way that the natural summer time ebbings and flowings of high pressure northwards and southwards can encapsulate everyone. 

[Captain Shortwave]

54 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Much cleaner build from the ukmo, no mess hanging back. See what ecm says..

The JMA is similar to the UKMO at day 7, the rest of the run has high pressure sat right over the UK.

 

The ECM run looks very similar to the 00z, in fact there is very little in it with the jet stream close enough to bring fronts into the north and west whilst a good part of the England is fine and very warm.
 

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

ECM almost identical this mornings 0z at 192..light winds high pressure moving in..becoming hot in the south

[Howie]

Ecm has pressure on the high again. Not ridging up through the country

[Lukesluckybunch]

southeast looking hot at 216!

[Howie]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

southeast looking hot at 216!

But low pressure soon to push the high away, not liking this run

[Ben Sainsbury]

I see nowt to be concerned about at this stage the further SE you are. W/NW areas likely to see more cloud with the risk of showers but even then I still expect temperatures to be warm with sunny spells at times. Wouldn’t surprise me for high pressure to remain more dominant than what the model suggest at the moment.

[KTtom]

From a purely IMBY point of view I see a, whats become typical summer panning out. May and June  dry, clear skies and warm..July and August unsettled whilst the better conditions move to the east...normal service resumes, nothing abnormal.

[Earthshine]

GFS and ECMWF means for day 10.  Let's see!

[danm]

ECM:

If you’re in the S/SE it looks lovely from Wednesday to Sunday next week. The low makes inroads for all by Monday the 26th but that’s ages away, and in any case pressure looks like it could easily rebuild again from the SW very soon after.

It also looks good further north on Thursday and Friday, but the N and W is always far more susceptible to cloud and rain with this set up, so it doesn’t last.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

I think gfs is overdoing the atlantic and we will fall somewhere half way between extreme heatwave and a typical N/S split.  Saw it in the run up to the July 2021 spell, was originally showing a 3 day southeast only affair but improving with each run as the days grew closer,  resulting in a five day country wide heatwave.