Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards

[mhielte]

2 hours ago, Scorcher said:

There is no evidence for this at all. Interested to know where this expectation has come from?

The models can't even decide what is happening in a week's time, let alone for the rest of the summer.

I find that long term predictions from members of this forum are almost always clouded by bias.

 

I would also like to know the answer to this from @damianslaw. Unlike the other posters who have a clear agenda, Damian is very knowledgeable and level-headed, so I am keen to know his reasons behind writing off the entirety of summer  

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, mhielte said:

I would also like to know the answer to this from @damianslaw. Unlike the other posters who have a clear agenda, Damian is very knowledgeable and level-headed, so I am keen to know his reasons behind writing off the entirety of summer  

He is knowledgeable but his posts suggest a bias towards either cool/unsettled weather or a general pessimism in many cases (not sure which)- as evidenced in the CET threads when he often seems to play down warm months.

[Summer8906]

Any comments on what the GFS 00z and 06z are showing for south-eastern Europe?

I'm as concerned about that, in the opposite way, as what they're showing for northwestern Europe (as I'm planning to go there end of next week).

Looking at the uppers, red colours seem to be showing for that week, on the 06z in particular across practically the whole of southern Europe.

Does that likely mean extreme temps of 35c-40c across most or all of southern Europe or are there situations where high uppers can translate to less extreme surface temps?

If so, the worst kind of July, cloudy and wet in NW Europe, extreme heat in the south. Escaping one kind of undesirable weather to get another!

 

Edited June 30, 2023 by Summer8906

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

He is knowledgeable but his posts suggest a bias towards either cool/unsettled weather or a general pessimism in many cases (not sure which)- as evidenced in the CET threads when he often seems to play down warm months.

The comment I made about the trough becoming more of an influential player, based on some of the longer range summer forecasts that were suggesting a ridge to the east and trough to the SW, the latter perhaps inching closer to the UK shores as summer wears on, rather than away to the west, but far enough still to produce downstrean ridging and heat.  I'm not writing off the summer, far from it, but just to lower expectations of a return to the lengthy dry conditions late May and June, with ridge holding sway. I could well be very wrong, and I'll hold my hands up. 

If you read my July CET predictions I'm going for a warm July with plumes.. 

I'm not a pessimist and don't have a bias to cool and unsettled. 

Edited June 30, 2023 by damianslaw

[mushymanrob]

Just in case anyone is viewing tomorrows chart and was thinking of "writing off Summer".... heres something to ponder

 

[Downburst]

Might be lowering a few sails off the coast of Ireland Tuesday night. I selected Beaufort as that is a place in Kerry near this possible storm where the scale was created, needed it there I suppose with all the storms over the year.

 

[Djdazzle]

ICON 12z 180 chart supports the earlier trend to keep the low out west with HP to the east.

[MattStoke]

GEM is a gem.

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

Just in case anyone is viewing tomorrows chart and was thinking of "writing off Summer".... heres something to ponder

 

Im assuming summer 1947 was very warm and summery thereafter. Just looked at the synoptics for July, looks a very mixed month. I think Aug was very hot and dry though, correct if wrong. 

[Met4Cast]

All ticking along nicely & certainly no reason to write off summer, we’re entering a bit of a lull/reset period in terms of our weather but I suspect the warm/hot weather will be back by mid July. 

Indeed, modelling is already backing away from the persistent trough to the north of the UK & correcting this SWards into the Atlantic/towards Iberia, I’d expect this trend to continue. 

MJO forecasts remain fairly incoherent at the moment but a WWB in the Pacific into July should help this signal along somewhat and see us transitioning through 3/4, this in turn should allow for some +Mountain Torque helping to drive the AAM upwards again, albeit likely not the heights seen previously. 

All in all, I’d expect to see an Atlantic trough (or Iberian low)/Euro high combination returning in the first half of July which could advect warm or hot air northwards into the NW Europe region. 

Edited June 30, 2023 by Met4Cast

[seabreeze86]

We really want the ridge to squeeze though the lows and then summer can restart if not will be another few days of dross especially the further north and west you are 

GEM shows the best case scenario. GFS sort of in the middle and the UKMO look the worst if fine and warm is your preference 

[summer blizzard]

Before the 12z models come out i thought i would assess the models. 

Essentially they support a pressure build and plume days 7-10, Euro even builds pressure for a second time. 

Day 7

 

Day 10

 

So the concensus at day 7 is for the trough to the west to become dominant and amplify causing a plume. The consensus opposed by the Euro at day 10. is for the trough to push into the UK (a cyclonic cold front so could be thundery).  

[Mike Poole]

GFS and GEM 12z at opposing extreme ends of the possibilities covered by this morning’s ECM clusters, GFS as per cluster 5 (and previous runs have also been more progressive with the low moving into the UK than most models), GEM as per cluster 6 at T240:

[mb018538]

 

Have to confess I wasn’t expecting to see that at day 8 tonight….clearly at the very top end of expectations, but shows what can happen if that trough stalls and pressure can build ahead of it.

[danm]

Excellent trends over the last couple of days on a potential return to sunshine and warmth at the back end of next week. Let’s hope that continues. 

Am in Rome at the moment, a very warm 29c/30c, which is a cool down from what they’ve had recently. Mid to high 30’s last week. 

[mb018538]

GEM ensemble shows the 12z run isn’t even close to the hottest member….mean now up to 10-12c for next weekend. Chances seem to be on the increase for another blast of heat in a weeks time.

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Im assuming summer 1947 was very warm and summery thereafter. Just looked at the synoptics for July, looks a very mixed month. I think Aug was very hot and dry though, correct if wrong. 

Summer 1947 was known for being good however just looked at the synoptics of July 1947 myself and it does in fact look very, very average with alternating anticyclonic and unsettled periods.

Mind you July 1995 wasn't brilliant synoptically. Warm cloudy westerlies first week, brief heatwave 8th-9th, slack cyclonic SWly for about a week producing fairly large cloud amounts and some showers if on the warm side, drizzly warm sector on the 19th, fine and sunny from the 20th to the 25th, three days of changeable weather, then hot.

Interesting a lot of these good summers have at least one relatively average month. Perhaps 1976 and 1989 are the rare exceptions: the latter, which I remember well, certainly had three distinctly good months though August was a tad more changeable than the others.

Edited June 30, 2023 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

32 minutes ago, danm said:

Excellent trends over the last couple of days on a potential return to sunshine and warmth at the back end of next week. Let’s hope that continues. 

Am in Rome at the moment, a very warm 29c/30c, which is a cool down from what they’ve had recently. Mid to high 30’s last week. 

Send some of that 29/30 weather to Greece for the week after next. Don't want it too hot (35+), but that sort of temp - with the occasional isolated storm - would be just right.

Edited June 30, 2023 by Summer8906

[Bats32]

Well, the ECM 12z is not looking good at all for next weekend.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 24/06/2023 at 22:22, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

If we take the GEM Ensemble a low developing over Iceland through June 28th will drop over the UK and simultaneously we see high pressure developing further North probably becoming centered in Greenland as our upper level trough becomes a cut off low in the UK

 

Below average upper and lower air temperatures within the UK are likely in association with this which the cfs weeklies are already picking up on

 

fitting these into the associated composites for phase 5 through 1 during June 

 

Starting with the progress across phases 5 6 + 7 Excellently fits to expectations  

The Ninò composites connect pretty nicely too

Absolute bullseye for pattern links with MJO

Buckle up everybody it's the turn of the UK to experience abnormal weather.

Just how abnormal will this pattern be?

Beginning with the 850hpa temps these will WIDELY be AT LEAST 5 DEGREES BELOW AVG  

Might be a small window for 10-12 DEGREES BELOW AVG around Orkney + Shetland

For surface temperatures I'm expecting AT LEAST 1.5C BELOW AVG - say 4C BELOW AVG in the UK + Ireland with similar across Scandinavia though they might average slightly colder overall 

 

I have studied the coldest EVER Max temps for UK + Ireland in July which was 1978

  

Now match this setup with 1978

I wish the Met Office made it easily accessible for daily temp and other wx records, the NWS in America is a thousand times easier and simple for that aspect

 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

The ECM phases the shallow system running through the Atlantic ridge so quickly that it essentially gets absorbed into the parent low and hence maintaining the cyclonic pattern (albeit becoming a little warmer). No real push of heights from the south.

That said for what it is worth it has dropped the discreet low for the middle of next week that was not on any other output. 

[mb018538]

I should think the ecm is way too progressive and an unsettled outlier. We hope!

[danm]

34 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Send some of that 29/30 weather to Greece for the week after next. Don't want it too hot (35+), but that sort of temp - with the occasional isolated storm - would be just right.

Rome is forecast to get back up to the mid 30’s next week, more heat pushing into southern Europe. 

[MattStoke]

12 hours ago, MattStoke said:

Atlantic trough/U.K. ridge building nicely on the ECM.

Small difference in placement = Big difference in surface conditions.

[joggs]

Tamara's word's ringing nicely in my ears despite people writing off most of July.

Cmon ECM

Edited June 30, 2023 by joggs