Storms and Convective discussion - 20th March 2023 onwards

[Andy Bown]

3 hours ago, Metwatch said:

 

Hail core Wiltshire 

This video is by the daughter of a close friend of mine! 

[Zak M]

View of a cell as it was heading away from here 30 minutes ago.

[The Tall Weatherman]

Just had a brief Thunderstorm near us ! Sadly I missed most of it during my dinner and as I arrived most of the bolts were not visible. Waiting for the Mammatus to form behind it !

[ChannelThunder]

JFF chart; very last frame of the ECM:

As we've seen before, decent Spanish plumes are very possible as early as late April, and this model in particular has been keen on this evolution for a few days now. LP to the west, HP to the NE, and scope for decent uppers seen there over France to get scooped our way.

[viking_smb]

forgot to post, 

we had thunder about 11:55pm on monday eve, couple of strikes which I checked on blitzortung from a rapidly developing cell

[Zak M]

Only just realised I had caught a double CG this afternoon to my south

[Eagle Eye]

10 minutes ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

JFF chart; very last frame of the ECM:

As we've seen before, decent Spanish plumes are very possible as early as late April, and this model in particular has been keen on this evolution for a few days now. LP to the west, HP to the NE, and scope for decent uppers seen there over France to get scooped our way.

Pumping of warm air is better with a deeper longwave trough and those tend to happen more early and late season but do still happen in the middle of Summer of course but arguably the best moisture advection dynamics wise are in Spring. It's just that there's a lot less warm air and moisture available and it often has to be WAA from north Africa up to France and then a diffuse front and/or shortwave trough with the plume to get most of the moisture there. That's exactly what this appears to show here. With an open warm sector in most of France and most of England. I like that plume scenario. Best case would of course be a cap over France that breaks into a massive MCS overnight but its still 10 days away and can change . The ECM hasn't been great so far this year compared to last year but it's still one of the best models.

[ChannelThunder]

7 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Pumping of warm air is better with a deeper longwave trough and those tend to happen more early and late season but do still happen in the middle of Summer of course but arguably the best moisture advection dynamics wise are in Spring. It's just that there's a lot less warm air and moisture available and it often has to be WAA from north Africa up to France and then a diffuse front and/or shortwave trough with the plume to get most of the moisture there. That's exactly what this appears to show here. With an open warm sector in most of France and most of England. I like that plume scenario. Best case would of course be a cap over France that breaks into a massive MCS overnight but its still 10 days away and can change . The ECM hasn't been great so far this year compared to last year but it's still one of the best models.

Your posts have become increasingly knowledgeable since you joined here a few years back! I know you're young and it's clear you've used that to your advantage to learn a lot about the weather! (I found that my brain stopped being such a sponge as soon as I got into my twenties ). Have you thought about pursuing a career in Meteorology once done with school/Uni etc?

[Vortex3929]

14 minutes ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

 Have you thought about pursuing a career in Meteorology once done with school/Uni etc?

Funny enough I was just thinking Eagle will be one of the forecast team on netwx at some point given his knowledge. The storm forecasts Eagle posts in the evening are pretty much identical to the netwx ones posted the following day in both technical and map detail

[Eagle Eye]

36 minutes ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

 Have you thought about pursuing a career in Meteorology once done with school/Uni etc?

17 minutes ago, UKSnakey said:

Funny enough I was just thinking Eagle will be one of the forecast team on netwx at some point given his knowledge. 

Thanks guys. I do hope I can join the Netweather forecasting team or somewhere similar later in life but getting the grades at School proves tougher than learning weather from 100 page documents. A lot of School just seems useless to me .

Edited April 12, 2023 by Eagle Eye

[Iceman2606]

Hail & Thunderstorms - Northamptonshire, UK - 12 April 2023

 

[Allseasons-Si]

10 minutes ago, Iceman2606 said:

Hail & Thunderstorms - Northamptonshire, UK - 12 April 2023

 

Thanks for the video,I had to get a shot of that sunset lit cell,...it was gorgeous

and @Zak M,great shots too of them mammies and double cg

not much up here bar the odd rumble the other day with some decent hail covering all surfaces,...still plenty of time though eh.

 

Edited April 12, 2023 by Allseasons-si

[CoventryWeather]

40 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Thanks guys. I do hope I can join the Netweather forecasting team or somewhere similar later in life but getting the grades at School proves tougher than learning weather from 100 page documents. A lot of School just seems useless to me .

Especially when GCSEs make you choose a language! Oh how I miss those lessons (not)!

[Eagle Eye]

Convective Outlook ️

Thu 13th 0600 - Thu 13th 2300

 

With an open warm sector (relative) running across the south and Midlands and cloud clearing around the north as well behind the occluded front, CAPE should build up to 200+ J/KG widely across the UK with generally hit and miss showers. There is a general chance for lightning with these showers perhaps best organising across the north and the southeast.

 

Forcing appears to be strongest towards the north for organisation but also with relatively warm SST's and a small lobe of vorticity along the channel, organisation in the central south and southeast may be possible.  Therefore the AOI has been added along the south.

 

Most vorticity appears to be held in the north with the AOI area there given a moist tongue of saturated air parcels and moderately strong mid-level flow helping to replace the dry air cap in the mid-levels in the morning with moistened mid-level air in the afternoon therefore increasing the risk for taller storms more capable of lightning. 

 

With steepening lapse-rates and very cold above surface air, hail a few cm's big does appear likely. Along with some heavy rain and wind gusts in the north at 60+ km/h for a time.

[Mapantz]

The area of interest is my house? 

[Polar Maritime]

Let's not get IMBY..

This is a dry joke by the way. Obviously going by the forecast it's all a bit up in arms. But certain areas are more prone to activity.. 

Edited April 12, 2023 by Polar Maritime

[Eagle Eye]

53 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

The area of interest is my house? 

 

51 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Let's not get IMBY..

This is a dry joke by the way. Obviously going by the forecast it's all a bit up in arms. But certain areas are more prone to activity.. 

I'll be honest I don't make the maps. I just do the discussion. The guy who does the maps seems to think that's the area of interest down south and I'm agreeing to disagree as I think it'll be more to the east but we'll see how it goes. Hard to pin down any specific areas with thunderstorms of course.

[WeatherArc]

Haven't been paying much attention to the weather over here but this looks very good for the time of year, not used to getting plumes this early tbh 

[Ben Sainsbury]

7 hours ago, WeatherArc said:

Haven't been paying much attention to the weather over here but this looks very good for the time of year, not used to getting plumes this early tbh 

Dreaming of those big import night events this year! If EC 0z is anything to go by, we could be looking at a decent imported event next 10 days or so.

[A Face like Thunder]

Wind speed in excess of 90mph at The Needles reported yesterday on the BBC radio news. At least the 'weather warning' was correct on that one. 

[CoventryWeather]

9 hours ago, WeatherArc said:

Haven't been paying much attention to the weather over here but this looks very good for the time of year, not used to getting plumes this early tbh 

I remember last year there was a plume mid May - gave some lightning to my South East that was visible for some time. Think it was the 18th..

Can't wait for the nighttime elevated storms this year - last few years have been relatively poor for the Midlands (though there were a few in early September last year too). 

[Windblade]

Loads of heavy cells coming over one after another yesterday...absolutely no sparks at all. No trigger. Similar story earlier in the week as well. However, a quick look on blitz revealed strikes all around me, just out of range. Typical. 

[Atmogenic]

getting a few cells heading my way now and seeing this cell starting to shower out

[CoventryWeather]

28 minutes ago, Windblade said:

Loads of heavy cells coming over one after another yesterday...absolutely no sparks at all. No trigger. Similar story earlier in the week as well. However, a quick look on blitz revealed strikes all around me, just out of range. Typical. 

Is Blitz working for you? I only have a blank screen, no map!! It's frustrating me as I have to use lightning maps instead.

[Eagle Eye]

Lightning getting closer and closer. Can see the Storm behind the trees. Very dark clouds moving in. Thunder heard!