Storms and Convective discussion - 20th March 2023 onwards

[Supacell]

It's taken a while to edit as there was a lot of driving in "nothingness" to edit out and also been busy with work commitments since the chase. But here is my video from my storm chase on Tuesday 9th May.

Chasing pulse storms is difficult but I'm happy with this month so far from a storm perspective. I am hoping for some good thundery plumes or at least more organised thunderstorms as we get more into summer.

[Eagle Eye]

We've actually already beaten 2010 for its total yearly thundery activity and the storm season has barely started at all.

Edited May 13, 2023 by Eagle Eye

[Raindrops]

17 hours ago, Zak M said:

I know I'm late but I've finally released my video from Tuesday.

Here are the usual screengrabs - apologies for the spam. Was quite a display!

                                          

Is that a lightning detector I hear? Awesome video, thanks for sharing and putting your time and effort into it.

[JR319]

On 12/05/2023 at 14:29, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Next chance arriving for Sunday with a section of instability developing ahead of a decaying cold front my current thinking would have the highest chances around Central England / Midlands (chance for a convergence zone from the humber > the wash too) time for some changes but will update if so.

 

Will there be an update on this at all? 

[Raindrops]

5 hours ago, Supacell said:

It's taken a while to edit as there was a lot of driving in "nothingness" to edit out and also been busy with work commitments since the chase. But here is my video from my storm chase on Tuesday 9th May.

Chasing pulse storms is difficult but I'm happy with this month so far from a storm perspective. I am hoping for some good thundery plumes or at least more organised thunderstorms as we get more into summer.

@37:07 what's going on there?

[Zak M]

2 hours ago, Raindrops said:

Is that a lightning detector I hear? Awesome video, thanks for sharing and putting your time and effort into it.

It is, yeah. Very handy when you're trying to find strikes in a long video because you'll notice a sudden spike in audio

[Raindrops]

4 minutes ago, Zak M said:

It is, yeah. Very handy when you're trying to find strikes in a long video because you'll notice a sudden spike in audio

Good to know, I thought detectors only picked up CG and not CC/IC, guess I better get up to date with the tech.

[Rufus Butterfield]

13 minutes ago, Zak M said:

It is, yeah. Very handy when you're trying to find strikes in a long video because you'll notice a sudden spike in audio

Never thought of that, probably makes editing a lot easier.

[WeatherArc]

That Cape over France  

At the end of the GFS run so i doubt the amount will be that high (or even happen tbh) but if we can get those values to lift up over the channel its gonna be a good day for storms.

 

[Supacell]

5 hours ago, Raindrops said:

@37:07 what's going on there?

At first glance it could look like a funnel cloud but it's most likely just scud. 

[Raindrops]

11 minutes ago, Supacell said:

At first glance it could look like a funnel cloud but it's most likely just scud. 

Yeah, I thought you were going to follow it by taking the second right, but you went straight on, better luck next time.

Oh, and great video, thanks for sharing.

 

Edited May 13, 2023 by Raindrops

[The Tall Weatherman]

5 hours ago, JR319 said:

Will there be an update on this at all? 

Thunderstorms could definitely be possible from the Midlands to East Anglia tomorrow afternoon. <800 SB cape locally is possible late afternoon tomorrow and the Arome model shows storms popping off along convergence zones driven by sea breezes. Most storms will be weak but an active storm can’t be ruled out were convergence is at its greatest particularly along the Wash.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

6 hours ago, JR319 said:

Will there be an update on this at all? 

Largely the same with the main instability a tad further east also the parameters won't be there for big thunderstorms instead heavy showers with some containing lightning. Convergence zones from the humber > the wash and associated with the main zone of instability 🌦

  

[Eagle Eye]

Convective Outlook️

A couple of heavy showers will develop in response to surface heating bringing a small risk of a few isolated lightning strikes.

In my opinion it may be stronger than that and may warrant a low with an area of interest somewhere but I haven't really had a look. I think it may be slightly over saturated and the bouyant zone pre-front is quite small but if air parcels can stay parallel enough to the flow of bouyancy then a long lived shower with sparodic lightning organising a bit better than elsewhere may be possible.

[Rufus Butterfield]

Small cell just popped up to my south. Very large raindrops.

[Rufus Butterfield]

Pileus clouds and more updrafts appearing.

[convector]

just looked out the window wasn't expecting to see anything convective today. Any chance these could turn thundery? Profiles look limited in height 

[WeatherArc]

Long range GEFS seems to suggest increasing storm potential near the end of may with better temps and dewpoints. Not a massive signal as of now but just nice/reassuring to see. 

Also a nice couple of cells near Sheffield/York, not much in the way of lightning but much better than the dull sky over here 

[Rufus Butterfield]

5 minutes ago, WeatherArc said:

Long range GEFS seems to suggest increasing storm potential near the end of may with better temps and dewpoints. Not a massive signal as of now but just nice/reassuring to see. 

Also a nice couple of cells near Sheffield/York, not much in the way of lightning but much better than the dull sky over here 

Very hazy viewing though. Dan’s convective outlook did mention the possibility of a couple funnel clouds but unless the storm is very close, you can’t see much.

[Rufus Butterfield]

Proper pileus earlier over that cell to my south which is now in Lincolnshire.

[convector]

1 hour ago, convector said:

just looked out the window wasn't expecting to see anything convective today. Any chance these could turn thundery? Profiles look limited in height 

no? not interesting enough 

[Sprites]

1 hour ago, convector said:

just looked out the window wasn't expecting to see anything convective today. Any chance these could turn thundery? Profiles look limited in height 

There's a convective forecast out by a Nick . A couple couple of strikes nr Louth recently 

Edited May 14, 2023 by Sprites

[Peachy]

I wonder when the first Kent clipper of the year will be?

[WeatherArc]

12z GFS also agreeing on late may, good dew-points and temps into the low 20s leading to some robust instability, Hoping this trend can continue. 

 

 

[Eagle Eye]

Convective Outlook

Showers will develop widely with a risk of the odd lightning strike. The most intense cells will develop across NE/E Eng which may produce a few lightning strikes. A convergence zone running across the NE Eng coast may help/fuel the intensity of the cells.