First 20 and 25 degrees temps - Spring 2023

[Weather Enthusiast91]

37 minutes ago, Frigid said:

Manchester Airport recorded a low of 21C on the 19th July, think this is the highest Tmin on record. It was actually forecasted to be as low as 25C..distinctly remember the Met going for a low of 27C. That would've been mad. Other occasions similar to this would be July 20th 2016 (19C).

Back on topic, looks like my 20C forecast is a bust. Will probably see it happen sometime in April, possibly final week.

That is what I am going for also. Temp wise, I have a feeling this April is going to be similar to April 2021 but with a lot more cloud. 

[sunny_vale]

I'll stick my neck and say we might see 20C and 25C reached pretty closely together this year.

20C: April 12th

25C: April 20th

30C: will just about miss it around the end of May, and end up reaching it properly on the 24th of June

35C: I see this happening towards the end of July, let's say the 27th

[Scorcher]

The first 20C is a long way off sadly, if this morning's op runs are to be believed.

[Scorcher]

On 29/03/2023 at 13:22, Frigid said:

Manchester Airport recorded a low of 21C on the 19th July, think this is the highest Tmin on record. It was actually forecasted to be as low as 25C..distinctly remember the Met going for a low of 27C. That would've been mad. Other occasions similar to this would be July 20th 2016 (19C).

Back on topic, looks like my 20C forecast is a bust. Will probably see it happen sometime in April, possibly final week.

A more urban site if it existed in Manchester would definitely have recorded higher than that 21C at Manchester Airport.

The airport is low lying, on the edge of countryside and not too far from high ground in the Pott Shrigley area- I've said for years that it's a frost hollow to a degree- although Woodford was even more extreme while it existed (and so is Rostherne now)- it's not an accurate reflection of the whole area at night IMO.

I would not be surprised if more urban areas remained in the mid 20s that night and it may well have been that the parts of Manchester at a slightly higher elevation were much warmer than the airport.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

13 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

The first 20C is a long way off sadly, if this morning's op runs are to be believed.

Aye, horrid models, likely be May

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, horrid models, likely be May

After the March we've endured the models actually look rather good!

Not good if you want 20C soon, admittedly.

[Dark Horse]

10 hours ago, Scorcher said:

A more urban site if it existed in Manchester would definitely have recorded higher than that 21C at Manchester Airport.

The airport is low lying, on the edge of countryside and not too far from high ground in the Pott Shrigley area- I've said for years that it's a frost hollow to a degree- although Woodford was even more extreme while it existed (and so is Rostherne now)- it's not an accurate reflection of the whole area at night IMO.

I would not be surprised if more urban areas remained in the mid 20s that night and it may well have been that the parts of Manchester at a slightly higher elevation were much warmer than the airport.

 

Yeah from what I remember there was more of a warmer air mass at height that night. I bet places like Oldham and Rochdale town centre which are both above 150m and built up would have stayed well into the 20s. And there's usually a foehn effect especially in Rochdale with plumes. It tends to be one of the hottest places in Gtr Manchester in those scenarios.

Edited April 1, 2023 by Dark Horse

[Sunny76]

It looks like April could struggle to get a 20c.

[Summer8906]

35 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

It looks like April could struggle to get a 20c.

First half, yes. But I guess the generally anticyclonic northerly or easterly with occasional lows to the south or east could fairly easily produce a setup where the continental low migrates westwards to Biscay and pulls up a temporary warm, even slightly thundery, airmass for a couple of days. Perhaps this month is looking synoptically similar to 1996, which did manage one or two short 20C+ episodes towards the end.

I'd agree that sustained long-fetch anticyclonic southerlies are somewhat unlikely with the models as they are. That said this is a time of year when weather patterns can change rather suddenly, perhaps more than other times of the year.

Edited April 1, 2023 by Summer8906

[Frigid]

1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

It looks like April could struggle to get a 20c.

Way back in 2015 it took us till the 4th June to reach 20C. That in itself is astonishing and possibly the latest 20C at Man Airport. 

20Cs in April have become more common, so I'd expect some warmish days in the second half. 

[Scorcher]

3 hours ago, Frigid said:

Way back in 2015 it took us till the 4th June to reach 20C. That in itself is astonishing and possibly the latest 20C at Man Airport. 

Definitely not the latest- Weather-History will be able to tell you when exactly but there was one year in the 1980s when the first 20C in this area was well into June.

Also the records show Rostherne recorded 20.2C on April 23rd 2015- the airport is very close by so must have got close on that date? It was certainly a warm April that year.

[al78]

On 01/04/2023 at 10:10, Summer8906 said:

After the March we've endured the models actually look rather good!

Anything compared to garbage can look rather good. Being punched in the face looks rather good compared to be shot and killed. 

[Summer8906]

10 hours ago, al78 said:

Anything compared to garbage can look rather good. Being punched in the face looks rather good compared to be shot and killed. 

To be fair my comment was made at the end of March when the first half of April looked dry if rather cool, and before this "March Part Two" week we've got coming up started appearing on the models.

[Sunny76]

18 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

To be fair my comment was made at the end of March when the first half of April looked dry if rather cool, and before this "March Part Two" week we've got coming up started appearing on the models.

I think the spell has been fairly decent this weekend, apart from a couple of dodgy days mid week. 
 

It just needs to warm up a bit more, but I’m enjoying it while it lasts.

As a heatie, I know it’s still April, and will be ok if we have to wait a little longer, so long as it turns hot from mid to late May and beyond.

[Summer8906]

3 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

I think the spell has been fairly decent this weekend, apart from a couple of dodgy days mid week. 

It just needs to warm up a bit more, but I’m enjoying it while it lasts.

As a heatie, I know it’s still April, and will be ok if we have to wait a little longer, so long as it turns hot from mid to late May and beyond.

True, this spell, lasting exactly a week, has been nice, certainly compared to March. A typical spring mix really, mostly benign and settled with the odd changeable day.

Hoping the weather does improve again as is showing on the GFS 00z. Possible the answer to the "first 20c" question might be answered sometime during the week of the 16th-22nd. I'll still say mid-May for "first 25c", though!

Edited April 9, 2023 by Summer8906

[Sun Chaser]

Judging off what the GFS and ECM are showing, perhaps we only have a week or so to wait until our first 20C... 

[Sunny76]

3 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

True, this spell, lasting exactly a week, has been nice, certainly compared to March. A typical spring mix really, mostly benign and settled with the odd changeable day.

Hoping the weather does improve again as is showing on the GFS 00z. Possible the answer to the "first 20c" question might be answered sometime during the week of the 16th-22nd. I'll still say mid-May for "first 25c", though!

The 17th to the 21st is my next week off, and we are staying at a spa in Marlow, so if the weather is dry it will be ideal for a walk in the area. If the weather is rubbish, we have the spa to fall back on.

Heading down to Meopham to see a mate of mine for a couple of drinks and a meal on the Friday 21st. If it’s dry we will have a walk and sit outside.

[Metwatch]

On 21/03/2023 at 01:32, Metwatch said:

First 20c - April 7th

First 25c - April 19th

First 30c - May 24th

First 20c there is a write off, however the first 20c could happen early next week around or just before the date I went for first 25°C.

25°C seems extremely unlikely next week, unless some very warm southerly plume arrives, which a few ensemble members have hinted, rather than just a warmish easterly - southeasterly. 

Edited April 9, 2023 by Metwatch

[al78]

A photo from my walk near Kettlewell in the Yorkshire Dales. This is the sunny weather with temperatures up to 16C that was forecast yesterday evening.

[Met.]

Takes a laughably long time to get 20 degrees in the UK... I'd expect it to happen at least by mid April every year. 

[damianslaw]

5 hours ago, MetCat said:

Takes a laughably long time to get 20 degrees in the UK... I'd expect it to happen at least by mid April every year. 

Could well be the case this year, conditions early next week look conducive for the first 20 degrees, and by my book that is still mid April (17-19 April). The BBC forecast for here is 19 degrees Tuesday, western spots look most likely to see such temps given the easterly flow, though I see a 20 degrees forecast for London suggesting the flow may be more SE, bringing in warmer continental air. In an average year I would expect a 20 degrees by the end of April rather than middle somewhere in England, here it usually takes until May, but certainly mid April isn't that unusual.

[Sunny76]

7 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Could well be the case this year, conditions early next week look conducive for the first 20 degrees, and by my book that is still mid April (17-19 April). The BBC forecast for here is 19 degrees Tuesday, western spots look most likely to see such temps given the easterly flow, though I see a 20 degrees forecast for London suggesting the flow may be more SE, bringing in warmer continental air. In an average year I would expect a 20 degrees by the end of April rather than middle somewhere in England, here it usually takes until May, but certainly mid April isn't that unusual.

20c is quite common in April, and would be unusual if we had to wait until May to get one.

All the way back to 1980, a 20 or 21c has been achieved in April. 
 

1983 was the only year where it didn’t happen until sometime into May.

[al78]

After a nice Easter Saturday and Sunday, the punishment weather arrived for my long drive home today (combined with heavy congestion on the M6, M1 and M25). Car thermometer 8.5C in continuous rain shortly after 2pm. About par for the course for December. 

The UK's transport system seems to regress 200 years on the Easter bank holiday weekend, took nine hours to go from Horsham to Plaish (Shropshire) to Salford on Friday, and six hours to come straight home today. Would have been better to travel by train if there were any trains. Next year I am going to take some leave and visit family a couple of weeks away from the Easter weekend, it is getting exponentially worse travelling on that weekend every year.

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

20c is quite common in April, and would be unusual if we had to wait until May to get one.

All the way back to 1980, a 20 or 21c has been achieved in April. 
 

1983 was the only year where it didn’t happen until sometime into May.

Yes for London and the SE, I would expect 20 degrees in April, but here in the Lake District more likely have to wait until May.

[Metwatch]

Quite a few locations on Met Office site showing 20°C and 21°C now from Sunday.  

Not sure we'll see 20°C on Sunday if there's quite a bit of cloud, and the warmer airmass not fully arriving by that point, but from Monday and Tuesday if more sunshine, then a much better chance. 

Edited April 11, 2023 by Metwatch