The worst combined spring/summer seasons on record

[cheese]

14 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

I feel like I read that August 2009 had an extreme contrast in rainfall between the northwest and the southeast, the southeast being very dry and the northwest being unprecedentedly wet.

 

Memory serves true! Trevor Harley wrote about August 2009: "Parts of Norfolk saw only 5 mm of rain, the lowest since 1947, while several spots in the NW had record amounts of rainfall for August: Eskdalemuir had 394 mm (over 15 inches!) of rain, four times the average amount. The England and Wales rainfall total was 65 mm (90% of average), while Scotland saw 193% and Northern Ireland 205%."

Extreme contrast.

We had 54mm in August 2009, with an average high of 21C.

A very average month here.

[Catbrainz]

Going by memory I would say 2012. Three awful boogeyman months (April,June and July) and while March was very good if I recall rightly it just doesn’t hit the same as an outstanding month in late spring or summer. 

[B87]

On 06/09/2023 at 15:18, cheese said:

We had 54mm in August 2009, with an average high of 21C.

A very average month here.

24c, 40mm and around 185-190 sun hours here.

[Philipsfd]

Surprised 2007 hasn't been mentioned more; the Summer needs no explanation and even Spring wasn't a brilliant one - I'd say the Springs of 2011 and 2017 were both better than 2007.

 

March '07: Seem to recall this being fairly settled and mild (after the wild first weekend) but also quite overcast a lot of the time, with a small handful of 'lovely Spring days' around the 3rd week.

April: Outstanding first half with the Easter weekend being particularly good, but whilst the second half of the month remained mostly settled, I can remember a lot more overcast weather after the 16th or so. Became warm and sunny again at the end.

May: Started off very warm and sunny but after the 5th it took a nosedive and the rest of the month was pretty awful; often cool, dull and wet.

The Spring was mediocre overall and was followed by one of the worst summer periods we've ever had.

[Sun Chaser]

13 hours ago, Philipsfd said:

Surprised 2007 hasn't been mentioned more; the Summer needs no explanation and even Spring wasn't a brilliant one - I'd say the Springs of 2011 and 2017 were both better than 2007.

 

March '07: Seem to recall this being fairly settled and mild (after the wild first weekend) but also quite overcast a lot of the time, with a small handful of 'lovely Spring days' around the 3rd week.

April: Outstanding first half with the Easter weekend being particularly good, but whilst the second half of the month remained mostly settled, I can remember a lot more overcast weather after the 16th or so. Became warm and sunny again at the end.

May: Started off very warm and sunny but after the 5th it took a nosedive and the rest of the month was pretty awful; often cool, dull and wet.

The Spring was mediocre overall and was followed by one of the worst summer periods we've ever had.

Yes. 2007 was an awful year pretty much non-stop from May 6th onwards with very little settled weather. Even spring/summer 2012 in all its horror was punctuated by a week-long warm settled spell every 2 months or so

[Weather-history]

On 13/09/2023 at 01:14, Philipsfd said:

Surprised 2007 hasn't been mentioned more; the Summer needs no explanation and even Spring wasn't a brilliant one - I'd say the Springs of 2011 and 2017 were both better than 2007.

 

March '07: Seem to recall this being fairly settled and mild (after the wild first weekend) but also quite overcast a lot of the time, with a small handful of 'lovely Spring days' around the 3rd week.

April: Outstanding first half with the Easter weekend being particularly good, but whilst the second half of the month remained mostly settled, I can remember a lot more overcast weather after the 16th or so. Became warm and sunny again at the end.

May: Started off very warm and sunny but after the 5th it took a nosedive and the rest of the month was pretty awful; often cool, dull and wet.

The Spring was mediocre overall and was followed by one of the worst summer periods we've ever had.

 

Overall, that summer was bad although the first few days of June wasn't that bad around here. The rain taps were turned on after the first 10 days of June, Manchester recorded no rain during those first 11 days of June.  Often forgotten this. It was not a washout from the start. The rainfall of summer 2007 was concentrated in a 6-7 week period, from late July to end of August it was much drier.  

 

 

Edited September 14, 2023 by Weather-history

[cheese]

Just now, Weather-history said:

 

Overall, that summer was bad although the first few days of June wasn't that bad around here. The rain taps were turned on after the first 10 days of June, Manchester recorded no rain during those first 11 days of June.  Often forgotten this. It was not a washout from the start. The rainfall of summer 2007 was concentrated in a 6-7 week period, from late July to end of August was much drier.  

 

 

Yeah August 2007 was a decent month - sunnier and drier than average, with mostly average temperatures. 

[Weather-history]

8 minutes ago, cheese said:

Yeah August 2007 was a decent month - sunnier and drier than average, with mostly average temperatures. 

Yes, that's one reason why  I rate summer 2012 worse than that of  summer 2007.  

 

 

[Philipsfd]

47 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

 

Overall, that summer was bad although the first few days of June wasn't that bad around here. The rain taps were turned on after the first 10 days of June, Manchester recorded no rain during those first 11 days of June.  Often forgotten this. It was not a washout from the start. The rainfall of summer 2007 was concentrated in a 6-7 week period, from late July to end of August it was much drier.  

 

 

I remember the spell in early June, it was very sunny and became very warm around the 8th-10th.

I know it became a lot drier from the end of July but I don't remember it being that great? The first weekend of August was mildly hot then remained fair until around the 11th; 12th-22nd was then quite overcast, cool and wet at times; then mainly sunny and at times very warm over the BH weekend before sliding into a dull and cool final few days.

I don't think August 2007 was a brilliant month, perhaps it has a better reputation than it normally would because of the wet weather that preceded it, or because Aug 06 and 08 were both poor? But I wouldn't say it was any better than August 2009 or 2012.

Edited September 14, 2023 by Philipsfd

[cheese]

2 hours ago, Philipsfd said:

I remember the spell in early June, it was very sunny and became very warm around the 8th-10th.

I know it became a lot drier from the end of July but I don't remember it being that great? The first weekend of August was mildly hot then remained fair until around the 11th; 12th-22nd was then quite overcast, cool and wet at times; then mainly sunny and at times very warm over the BH weekend before sliding into a dull and cool final few days.

I don't think August 2007 was a brilliant month, perhaps it has a better reputation than it normally would because of the wet weather that preceded it, or because Aug 06 and 08 were both poor? But I wouldn't say it was any better than August 2009 or 2012.

August 2007 was drier and sunnier than August 2009 & 2012 for most of the UK. August 2012 was quite dull here with under 160 hours of sun whereas August 2007 had over 200 hours. August 2012 was very wet in the SW and August 2009 was very wet in Scotland & NI. 

Edited September 14, 2023 by cheese

[Sun Chaser]

4 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Yes, that's one reason why  I rate summer 2012 worse than that of  summer 2007.  

 

 

I agree, 2012 was dire. 2007 was inoffensive and benign from late July onwards while 2012 remained very wet here and never really stopped until the end of the year. The main problem with 2007 was the overall lack of heat: the 3rd warmest day of the year was in mid April!

[Philipsfd]

Perhaps there were regional differences between the Augusts of 07, 09 and 12? I know in the South East they had a warm and fairly dry August in 1998, 2009 and 2012, whereas further north and west the months were more unsettled. I don't think the South East had the better of the weather in August 2007 though.

[baddie]

I would aruge 2008 had a terrible spring/summer combination.
After an excellent February, March turned boring and monotone, which didnt feel very spring-like. April was a poor one, because it was cold and dull. The sunniest day recorded just 8 hours, which is very poor. The 5th-20th was more typical for February than April, and the warmth at the end of the month couldnt save it, as it was also a washout. The first half of May was very good, with many days above 24c, but deteriorated in the second half, whereas the final week was a complete washout and recorded no susnhine at all, meaning the month was wetter and slightly duller than average
 

After a poor spring, June was okay, but was still colder than average, depsite sunnier and drier. After a warm spell on the 8th/9th, most days struggled to reach 20c. Juiy was poor, but not as attrocious as the preivous July. The first half was cold, wet and dull, but improved form the 21st. The highest temperatue of July (and that year) was a meagre 27c, recorded on the 27h and 28th. August was perhaps the wrost month of the year, as it was the dullest on record, so dull that even February that year was sunnier. Temperatures failed to exceed 22-23c all month, and was also a washout. The final week was dry but was almost completely dull. August 2008 was almost as bad as June 2012. The September that followed it was also very poor

[B87]

On 14/09/2023 at 15:42, Philipsfd said:

Perhaps there were regional differences between the Augusts of 07, 09 and 12? I know in the South East they had a warm and fairly dry August in 1998, 2009 and 2012, whereas further north and west the months were more unsettled. I don't think the South East had the better of the weather in August 2007 though.

August 2007 was the best month of that summer here, but max temps were still 2c below average. It wasn't a good month at all.

[SummerShower]

2 hours ago, baddie said:

I would aruge 2008 had a terrible spring/summer combination.
After an excellent February, March turned boring and monotone, which didnt feel very spring-like. April was a poor one, because it was cold and dull. The sunniest day recorded just 8 hours, which is very poor. The 5th-20th was more typical for February than April, and the warmth at the end of the month couldnt save it, as it was also a washout. The first half of May was very good, with many days above 24c, but deteriorated in the second half, whereas the final week was a complete washout and recorded no susnhine at all, meaning the month was wetter and slightly duller than average
 

After a poor spring, June was okay, but was still colder than average, depsite sunnier and drier. After a warm spell on the 8th/9th, most days struggled to reach 20c. Juiy was poor, but not as attrocious as the preivous July. The first half was cold, wet and dull, but improved form the 21st. The highest temperatue of July (and that year) was a meagre 27c, recorded on the 27h and 28th. August was perhaps the wrost month of the year, as it was the dullest on record, so dull that even February that year was sunnier. Temperatures failed to exceed 22-23c all month, and was also a washout. The final week was dry but was almost completely dull. August 2008 was almost as bad as June 2012. The September that followed it was also very poor

Agree with 2008, but some of that could be skewed as I was out of the UK for mid April to mid may (what was probably the best period of this spring and summer).

From what I remember March was not bad, but non descript.  There was an interesting gale on the 10th and wintry showers around Easter but these were a nothingness really.  

There was no springlike weather in the 1st half of April, save the 1st 3 days we're 'ok'.  We actually had thundersnow on the 6th.  2nd half of May was very wet.  

June was very mediocre, but not too wet.  July was summery for a week from around 22nd but August was one of the worst summer months that I recall (worse than this July, and nearly as bad as July 07 and June 12).

Spring and summer 08 from my experience probably totalled less than 2 weeks of decent settled weather whilst I was in the UK.

[Summer8906]

On 13/09/2023 at 01:14, Philipsfd said:

Surprised 2007 hasn't been mentioned more; the Summer needs no explanation and even Spring wasn't a brilliant one - I'd say the Springs of 2011 and 2017 were both better than 2007.

 

March '07: Seem to recall this being fairly settled and mild (after the wild first weekend) but also quite overcast a lot of the time, with a small handful of 'lovely Spring days' around the 3rd week.

April: Outstanding first half with the Easter weekend being particularly good, but whilst the second half of the month remained mostly settled, I can remember a lot more overcast weather after the 16th or so. Became warm and sunny again at the end.

May: Started off very warm and sunny but after the 5th it took a nosedive and the rest of the month was pretty awful; often cool, dull and wet.

The Spring was mediocre overall and was followed by one of the worst summer periods we've ever had.

Depends where you are I guess, I remember March being predominantly sunny and warm after the 7th and April really notably sunny and warm throughout just about the whole month.

May was pretty rubbish from the Sunday of the May Day holiday weekend onwards, though.

So the good March, exceptional April and average August would, for me, prevent 2007 being in the running.

[SummerShower]

Who'd like this succession of months: March 2023, April 2012, may 2021, June 2012, July 2007, August 2008.  Now if that happened we'd be looking at a truly diabolical spring and summer combo.

[Summer8906]

14 hours ago, SummerShower said:

Who'd like this succession of months: March 2023, April 2012, may 2021, June 2012, July 2007, August 2008.  Now if that happened we'd be looking at a truly diabolical spring and summer combo.

Indeed, and how about preceding them with January 2014, February 2020, and following with September 2017, October 2019, November 2015 and December 2015. Now that really would be the year from hell.

On 15/09/2023 at 19:20, B87 said:

August 2007 was the best month of that summer here, but max temps were still 2c below average. It wasn't a good month at all.

I think the western half of southern England had it better that month, unusually. ISTR a phase were a low was located to the E or SE of southeast England, from about the 18th to the 23rd, which impacted the SE more than other regions.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

On 14/09/2023 at 07:50, Weather-history said:

 

Overall, that summer was bad although the first few days of June wasn't that bad around here. The rain taps were turned on after the first 10 days of June, Manchester recorded no rain during those first 11 days of June.  Often forgotten this. It was not a washout from the start. The rainfall of summer 2007 was concentrated in a 6-7 week period, from late July to end of August it was much drier.  

 

 

The jet stream that summer was southerly tracking, the things that caused it were an east QBO, weak sea ice , tropospheric easterlies, la niña and low AAM.  August was more pleasant, but it was too little and too late, August was also cooler than average as well as July.  July of that year at the time was probably the worst at the time for 19 years as well as being the wettest since 1936.  June 2007 was the wettest since 1860, only 2012 was wetter.   2007 started a lull in climate change and we then went into a regime of cold winters and cool/average summers culminating in the coldest December in 2010 since 1890 and the coldest march in 2013 since 1883.     

[BruenSryan]

On 20/08/2023 at 12:59, BruenSryan said:

Getting back on track to this thread... I had a look at the UK data and used the Manchester summer index formula to calculate statistically the best and worst spring/summer combos on record. This is the data I found, can go back as far as 1910.

The formula: 10 x [(mean max of summer) +(total sunshine)/67 - (rain days/8)]

I used the current August scaled up estimate from Roostweather for sunshine in 2023 and for rain days, I used the 1991-2020 average so 2023 will have a fair margin of error. 

The best spring/summer combo years:

1995 262

2022 258

1976 257

2003 248

1955 247

1984 245

2018 243

1911 243

1989 242

1949 241

1990 240

 

The worst:

1912 148

1920 149

1985 151

1924 153

1931 153

1979 156

1916 157

1927 159

1963 159

1954 161

The worst this century is 2012 with 176. 

2023 is much higher at 208. Not that bad. In fact, that's almost bang on the 1991-2020 average of 209. Would be the lowest since 2016. Recency bias and heightened expectations after such a good 2022?

Note this is the national UK average and does not account for regional variation. 

Getting back to this post, the final 2023 value was 206. Not that far off the estimate I gave. So very slightly worse than 1991-2020 average. 

The number of rain days was 80 which was the highest since 2012 though historically is not that exceptional. 1907 had as much as 95 rain days and the infamous wet year of 1903 at 93. This century, only spring/summer 2008 and 2012 had more rain days than 2023. 

The relatively sunny May and very sunny June skewed the sunshine and it was only the cloudiest spring/summer since 2019 with 982.4 hrs. 2019 had 978.9 hrs. 2012 is the cloudiest this century with 875.8 hrs.

Overall a very forgettable spring/summer skewed heavily by the exceptional June. Historically insignificant period. 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

2 hours ago, BruenSryan said:

Getting back to this post, the final 2023 value was 206. Not that far off the estimate I gave. So very slightly worse than 1991-2020 average. 

The number of rain days was 80 which was the highest since 2012 though historically is not that exceptional. 1907 had as much as 95 rain days and the infamous wet year of 1903 at 93. This century, only spring/summer 2008 and 2012 had more rain days than 2023. 

The relatively sunny May and very sunny June skewed the sunshine and it was only the cloudiest spring/summer since 2019 with 982.4 hrs. 2019 had 978.9 hrs. 2012 is the cloudiest this century with 875.8 hrs.

Overall a very forgettable spring/summer skewed heavily by the exceptional June. Historically insignificant period. 

Where does 2007 sit mate on this?  I know we had a positive AO in May, until AAM collapsed in June and it was a pretty disappointing summer overall with May to July having exceptional rain totals that year.  Also 2007 was the start of a climate change pause which resumed again from July 2013 onwards.   

[BruenSryan]

On 06/10/2023 at 16:01, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Where does 2007 sit mate on this?  I know we had a positive AO in May, until AAM collapsed in June and it was a pretty disappointing summer overall with May to July having exceptional rain totals that year.  Also 2007 was the start of a climate change pause which resumed again from July 2013 onwards.   

The index was 211 for 2007 which was better than 2023 and is slightly above the 91-20 average showing how much the spring skewed it (especially April of course). 2008 was much worse with 184. The mean max for spring/summer in 2008 was over 0.5C cooler than the same period in 2007. 

[Thundery wintry showers]

I was in Cleadon in South Tyneside in 2007, where the first 10 days of June had persistent low cloud and at times sea fret and came out even duller than the period of wet weather that followed.  Eastern Scotland was also heavily affected and, remarkably, in Aberdeen, December 2006 had more sunshine than June 2007.  However, in Tyneside while July was wet, sunshine was just slightly below normal and then August was quite sunny and dry.  Also there was that exceptional April beforehand.

In 2012 we had that phenomenal March, especially the spell late in the month, but then I remember the rest of that spring/summer mostly being a washout and being very dull, apart from a fine spell late May and a spell late July/early August when we had two dry sunny spells sandwiching a spell with sun, showers and thunder.  

Thus for me, since the turn of the century 2012 just about edges it.  2002 is another candidate for me, though I remember late March and April being warm and sunny which probably just saves it from getting the wooden spoon.

Going further back, 1988 sticks out for many parts of England (though not Tyneside, which unusually had more sunshine than London that summer) and 1993 for much of Scotland, as the fine weather of early and late June 1993 struggled to penetrate north of the Scottish border.  Perhaps also 1998 in some parts of the country, again especially Scotland, as August 1998 was another north-south split month.

Edited October 7, 2023 by Thundery wintry showers

[BruenSryan]

13 hours ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

I was in Cleadon in South Tyneside in 2007, where the first 10 days of June had persistent low cloud and at times sea fret and came out even duller than the period of wet weather that followed.  Eastern Scotland was also heavily affected and, remarkably, in Aberdeen, December 2006 had more sunshine than June 2007.  However, in Tyneside while July was wet, sunshine was just slightly below normal and then August was quite sunny and dry.  Also there was that exceptional April beforehand.

In 2012 we had that phenomenal March, especially the spell late in the month, but then I remember the rest of that spring/summer mostly being a washout and being very dull, apart from a fine spell late May and a spell late July/early August when we had two dry sunny spells sandwiching a spell with sun, showers and thunder.  

Thus for me, since the turn of the century 2012 just about edges it.  2002 is another candidate for me, though I remember late March and April being warm and sunny which probably just saves it from getting the wooden spoon.

Going further back, 1988 sticks out for many parts of England (though not Tyneside, which unusually had more sunshine than London that summer) and 1993 for much of Scotland, as the fine weather of early and late June 1993 struggled to penetrate north of the Scottish border.  Perhaps also 1998 in some parts of the country, again especially Scotland, as August 1998 was another north-south split month.

Not a surprise you had sea fret with a pattern like this in early June 2007. A pretty good spell for Ireland as you'd expect with easterly winds though the first weekend of the month was an absolute washout by slow-moving active fronts coming up against the anticyclone to the NE. 

[baddie]

I would argue 2004 was a candidate

March was poor because it was dull, though temperatures were gonig up and down throughout, with 2c on the 12th, and 17c on the 16th. A bit like March 2005, which was another bad one
April was putrid, due to it being very wet and dull, with some warm weather. A wetter version of April 2014 in my view
May was average. A wet start, but decent between the 14th and 24th. Mostly non-descript, but not bad
June was a month of two halves, where the first half was warm, sunny and dry. The second half was cooler and wetter, but some decent sunshine. Not a bad month in my opinion
July was a poor one, because it was cool and dull, and just boring overall. The 8th was an attorcious day, which broke a record for the lowest July maxima
August was a month of two halves, as it contained warm/hot weather, and frequent thunderstorms in the first half. Sunshine was okay, but could have been better. The second half was disappointing because it was cool, but we has some spells of sunshine

Overall, a putrid Spring and a meh Summer. There are still worse ones like 2008 and 2012

Edited November 19, 2023 by baddie