The worst combined spring/summer seasons on record

[Don]

3 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

well unusually hes not been on for 3 days now.... make of that what you will as hes a daily visitor. but i did suggest several times the he stopped digging....

Perhaps he's just taking a break?

[mushymanrob]

56 minutes ago, Don said:

Perhaps he's just taking a break?

half way through an argument?...

[Addicks Fan 1981]

22 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

half way through an argument?...

Precisely this, people need to realise that there's been worse summers in this country clearly, think the tabloids lead us into thinking doom and gloom to be honest @mushymanroband to be honest its out of context.    

[Don]

5 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

half way through an argument?...

It happens that way sometimes!  Anyway, we shall see.

[BruenSryan]

Getting back on track to this thread... I had a look at the UK data and used the Manchester summer index formula to calculate statistically the best and worst spring/summer combos on record. This is the data I found, can go back as far as 1910.

The formula: 10 x [(mean max of summer) +(total sunshine)/67 - (rain days/8)]

I used the current August scaled up estimate from Roostweather for sunshine in 2023 and for rain days, I used the 1991-2020 average so 2023 will have a fair margin of error. 

The best spring/summer combo years:

1995 262

2022 258

1976 257

2003 248

1955 247

1984 245

2018 243

1911 243

1989 242

1949 241

1990 240

 

The worst:

1912 148

1920 149

1985 151

1924 153

1931 153

1979 156

1916 157

1927 159

1963 159

1954 161

The worst this century is 2012 with 176. 

2023 is much higher at 208. Not that bad. In fact, that's almost bang on the 1991-2020 average of 209. Would be the lowest since 2016. Recency bias and heightened expectations after such a good 2022?

Note this is the national UK average and does not account for regional variation. 

[A Face like Thunder]

Thanks BruenSryan for a most informative post which certainly seems to confirm my view (S E based) about the 'summer' of 1985. 

[mushymanrob]

21 hours ago, BruenSryan said:

Getting back on track to this thread... I had a look at the UK data and used the Manchester summer index formula to calculate statistically the best and worst spring/summer combos on record. This is the data I found, can go back as far as 1910.

The formula: 10 x [(mean max of summer) +(total sunshine)/67 - (rain days/8)]

I used the current August scaled up estimate from Roostweather for sunshine in 2023 and for rain days, I used the 1991-2020 average so 2023 will have a fair margin of error. 

The best spring/summer combo years:

1995 262

2022 258

1976 257

2003 248

1955 247

1984 245

2018 243

1911 243

1989 242

1949 241

1990 240

 

The worst:

1912 148

1920 149

1985 151

1924 153

1931 153

1979 156

1916 157

1927 159

1963 159

1954 161

The worst this century is 2012 with 176. 

2023 is much higher at 208. Not that bad. In fact, that's almost bang on the 1991-2020 average of 209. Would be the lowest since 2016. Recency bias and heightened expectations after such a good 2022?

Note this is the national UK average and does not account for regional variation. 

where did you get the formula from?.... ive created my own based on central england, but havnt merged spring/summer yet.

[BruenSryan]

3 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

where did you get the formula from?.... ive created my own based on central england, but havnt merged spring/summer yet.

Kevin, Mr Data, Weather-History.. whichever name you call him  formula he uses for his Manchester summer index. 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

On 27/03/2023 at 19:07, Met. said:

Spring 2013 and summer 2012.

So the period of June 2012-May 2013 was utter pants from my POV. Not the same calendar year OK but still within a year period.

Spring 2013 was a siberian season in the UK, it was dominated by a negative NAO and the strong SSW in January was responsible for causing it as the PV was then displaced in the wrong place and then it was basically destroyed.    

On 21/08/2023 at 10:28, mushymanrob said:

where did you get the formula from?.... ive created my own based on central england, but havnt merged spring/summer yet.

Wonder @mushymanrobwhere 2013 fits in to everything?   

[BruenSryan]

14 hours ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Spring 2013 was a siberian season in the UK, it was dominated by a negative NAO and the strong SSW in January was responsible for causing it as the PV was then displaced in the wrong place and then it was basically destroyed.    

Wonder @mushymanrobwhere 2013 fits in to everything?   

You can see it in the graph I showed...

It had an index of 218 which is better than average in spite of the very cold spring. 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

2 hours ago, BruenSryan said:

You can see it in the graph I showed...

It had an index of 218 which is better than average in spite of the very cold spring. 

That's helped me quite a bit @BruenSryanand in fairness 2013 was very 1947 esque in a good number of ways.  I loved 2013 myself as it was a very interesting year weather wise in my books.   2013 also had things in common with 1975 and 1955 as well, great year for weather really.    

Edited August 23, 2023 by Addicks Fan 1981

[reef]

On 20/08/2023 at 12:59, BruenSryan said:

Getting back on track to this thread... I had a look at the UK data and used the Manchester summer index formula to calculate statistically the best and worst spring/summer combos on record. This is the data I found, can go back as far as 1910.

The formula: 10 x [(mean max of summer) +(total sunshine)/67 - (rain days/8)]

I used the current August scaled up estimate from Roostweather for sunshine in 2023 and for rain days, I used the 1991-2020 average so 2023 will have a fair margin of error.

This pretty much confirms that people have become so used to good springs / summers in recent years that an average one feels bad. We've also rarely had a bad spring / summer combination. Even terrible summers like 2007 (April), 2008 (May), 2011 (April) 2012 (March) all had at least one exceptional Spring month beforehand (in brackets). This year has followed suit with at least one really good month (June).

The trendline on the chart hitting 220 says a lot too when the highest is only 42 more but the lowest 72 away. It shows how quickly things have changed.

Edited August 23, 2023 by reef

[Summer8906]

On 15/08/2023 at 14:19, cheeky_monkey said:

interesting? i remember watching the QF Eng v Cam and the SF Eng v Ger in the garden ..me and my then GF set the tv on the table by the back door had a few friends over to watch the games..i remember the weather being pretty nice.. this was in Chelmsford btw 

I was in southern Hampshire and I'm fairly sure the weather was persistent damp Atlantic rubbish, perhaps one of those setups where the far east does better.

A look at historic charts does appear to indicate that the fine weather started pretty much when the World Cup ended - but the remainder of the month was really exceptional for warmth and sunshine.

[Summer8906]

On 16/08/2023 at 09:07, Weather-history said:

Agree.

June 2023 eclipses any June of the 1980s for a start and July 2023 was not as bad as 1988 on the temperatures alone.

Though July 2023 was (from what I can work out) worse than 1988 for settled, sunny days. 1988 had a spell of three consecutive days midmonth, from what I can make out 2023 had just one properly fine day, the 7th. Also it was duller than 1988, IIRC - which is a pretty big deal. Bear in mind I was out of the country though.

It depends what measure you use to rate summers.

A month with a relatively high mean temp due to warm nights is arguably worse than a month with a slightly lower mean temp, much cooler nights and warmer days.

From what I can make out, 2023 seems to have done particularly badly from July onwards for a lack of fine, warm by day (night temp irrelevant), sunny days. Due to May and June it won't be the "worst spring/summer on record", however, it must surely be one of the worst July/Augusts since 1974 for warm-by-day, sunny weather from what I can make out on here. Endless Atlantic-dominated weather from June 26th onwards, with what looks like just a short break since last weekend, being the apparent cause; for varying reasons, Europe as a whole has had truly terrible synoptics this year.

Edited August 24, 2023 by Summer8906

[Weather-history]

5 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Though July 2023 was (from what I can work out) worse than 1988 for settled, sunny days. 1988 had a spell of three consecutive days midmonth, from what I can make out 2023 had just one properly fine day, the 7th. Also it was duller than 1988, IIRC - which is a pretty big deal. Bear in mind I was out of the country though.

It depends what measure you use to rate summers.

A month with a relatively high mean temp due to warm nights is arguably worse than a month with a slightly lower mean temp, much cooler nights and warmer days.

From what I can make out, 2023 seems to have done particularly badly from July onwards for a lack of fine, warm by day (night temp irrelevant), sunny days. Due to May and June it won't be the "worst spring/summer on record", however, it must surely be one of the worst, July/Augusts since 1974 for warm-by-day, sunny weather from what I can make out on here. Endless Atlantic-dominated weather from June 26th onwards, with what looks like just a short break since last weekend, being the cause.

Manchester recorded 15 days of at least 20°C being reached during July 2023. In 1988, it was just 4

 

[Summer8906]

8 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Manchester recorded 15 days of at least 20°C being reached during July 2023. In 1988, it was just 4

 

I guess this brings up "what is an acceptable threshold temp"? For me, 20C is way too cool in July for a max. An acceptable temp at 10am or 8pm but not during the midday period.

We'd all have our own ways of measuring something as subjective as "how good" a summer month is, I guess, but for me, a month like July 1980 which was seriously cool for 20 days and then largely fairly fine and warm would be better than a month like July 2023 which was slightly cool (not dramatically so) by day, dull and damp throughout almost all the month.

I guess for me, personally, the type of weather the UK got in July 2023 is my "most hated" for summer, from what I am reading on here. It would probably match a scoring system in which you awarded one point for a day which achieved 50% sunshine and exceeded the mean max temp, two points for a day which, in addition, achieved 10 hours sunshine OR exceeded 25C, and three points for 10 hours AND 25C+.

Edited August 24, 2023 by Summer8906

[Thundery wintry showers]

I'm not aware of July 1988 having three consecutive settled, sunny days at any point in the month.  There was indeed a ridge of high pressure that moved across the west and south around midmonth, but it was weak to my knowledge much of the country remained cloudy and rather cool for the most part, and rain-bearing fronts were never far away.  Admittedly, some north-eastern coastal areas managed near average sunshine that month, but that was down to some sunny but very windy days towards the end of the month when they were sheltered from the west/south-westerlies by the Pennines or the Scottish Highlands, and they were very much the exception rather than the rule. 

If I take Heathrow for example, July 2023 used a Kipp-Zonen sunshine sensor, which normally records about 10% less sunshine than the Campbell-Stokes sensor that was used in July 1988, and the implication is that 1988 was probably a bit duller.

[Summer8906]

1 minute ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

I'm not aware of July 1988 having three consecutive settled, sunny days at any point in the month. 

 

There was indeed a ridge of high pressure that moved across the west and south around midmonth, but it was weak to my knowledge much of the country remained cloudy and rather cool for the most part, and rain-bearing fronts were never far away.  Admittedly, some north-eastern coastal areas managed near average sunshine that month, but that was down to some sunny but very windy days towards the end of the month when they were sheltered from the west/south-westerlies by the Pennines or the Scottish Highlands, and they were very much the exception rather than the rule. 

If I take Heathrow for example, July 2023 used a Kipp-Zonen sunshine sensor, which normally records about 10% less sunshine than the Campbell-Stokes sensor that was used in July 1988, and the implication is that 1988 was probably a bit duller.

I was in the far south, which probably helped: but it was July 18th-20th, IIRC - a Monday to Wednesday.

[Sunny76]

2 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

I guess this brings up "what is an acceptable threshold temp"? For me, 20C is way too cool in July for a max. An acceptable temp at 10am or 8pm but not during the midday period.

We'd all have our own ways of measuring something as subjective as "how good" a summer month is, I guess, but for me, a month like July 1980 which was seriously cool for 20 days and then largely fairly fine and warm would be better than a month like July 2023 which was slightly cool (not dramatically so) by day, dull and damp throughout almost all the month.

July 1980 was better than 23. At least it did contain a few very warm and sunny days in the last week or so. 

[Weather-history]

On 26/03/2023 at 15:07, Weather-history said:

1879 was bad, a very cold delayed spring followed by a chilly washout of a summer 

I would be surprised if this was not the worst combination in the last 150 years.

I can't think of a worst pair for flora and fauna.

 

 

[Alexis]

14 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

I guess this brings up "what is an acceptable threshold temp"? For me, 20C is way too cool in July for a max. An acceptable temp at 10am or 8pm but not during the midday period.

 

20C is pretty much the average max for summer up here, so I'd regard it as the minimum for a pleasant day in shorts.
23C is a nice "warm".

25C and above is getting toasty.

When you start getting typical days with a maximum of 16C is when it really feels autumnal for me.

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, Alexis said:

20C is pretty much the average max for summer up here, so I'd regard it as the minimum for a pleasant day in shorts.
23C is a nice "warm".

25C and above is getting toasty.

When you start getting typical days with a maximum of 16C is when it really feels autumnal for me.

I'd never wear shorts in 20C!

Definitely needs to be 25+ for me.

 

[mushymanrob]

OK, ive just completed my spring/summer combined index, this is based upon the relative values of temps, rainfall and sunshine taken from Oxford and Sutton Bonnington with some adjustments to cater for area averages. this is from 1930 as theres no sunshine records from Oxford before then.
The values are combined from my Spring and Summer indexes, although tbh my Spring one is "mark 1" and needs to be updated which wont be done until next year. (busy on Autumn and September indexes atm)

The top 20 are
2022 - 1424
1976 - 1309
1995 - 1279
1990 - 1274
2011 - 1250
1949 - 1213
2020 - 1205
1933 - 1197
2003 - 1182
1959 - 1154
2018 - 1152
2009 - 1138
1940 - 1131
1975 - 1113
1989 - 1096
1952 - 1091
2015 - 1090
2013 - 1084
1955 - 1049
1934 - 1047

The bottom 20 are

2007 - 795
2004 - 782
1965 - 780
1941 - 777
1951 - 775
1936 - 772
1971 - 771
1998 - 769
1958 - 760
1988 - 752
1985 - 751
1987 - 736
1954 - 731
1968 - 724
1948 - 714
1932 - 662
2012 - 654
1969 - 623
1931 - 605
(1981 - 595 ... might be wrong)

Oh, and 2023 will not make the bottom 20, but be somewhere between there and half way... so bottom half.

Edited August 24, 2023 by mushymanrob

[cheeky_monkey]

26 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

OK, ive just completed my spring/summer combined index, this is based upon the relative values of temps, rainfall and sunshine taken from Oxford and Sutton Bonnington with some adjustments to cater for area averages. this is from 1930 as theres no sunshine records from Oxford before then.
The values are combined from my Spring and Summer indexes, although tbh my Spring one is "mark 1" and needs to be updated which wont be done until next year. (busy on Autumn and September indexes atm)

The top 20 are
2022 - 1424
1976 - 1309
1995 - 1279
1990 - 1274
2011 - 1250
1949 - 1213
2020 - 1205
1933 - 1197
2003 - 1182
1959 - 1154
2018 - 1152
2009 - 1138
1940 - 1131
1975 - 1113
1989 - 1096
1952 - 1091
2015 - 1090
2013 - 1084
1955 - 1049
1934 - 1047

The bottom 20 are

2007 - 795
2004 - 782
1965 - 780
1941 - 777
1951 - 775
1936 - 772
1971 - 771
1998 - 769
1958 - 760
1988 - 752
1985 - 751
1987 - 736
1954 - 731
1968 - 724
1948 - 714
1932 - 662
2012 - 654
1969 - 623
1931 - 605
1981 - 595

Oh, and 2023 will not make the bottom 20, but be somewhere between there and half way... so bottom half.

all i can say is 1981?

[mushymanrob]

19 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

all i can say is 1981?

that might be an error on my part..... i was rushing.. ill check now