The worst combined spring/summer seasons on record

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

OK, ive just completed my spring/summer combined index, this is based upon the relative values of temps, rainfall and sunshine taken from Oxford and Sutton Bonnington with some adjustments to cater for area averages. this is from 1930 as theres no sunshine records from Oxford before then.
The values are combined from my Spring and Summer indexes, although tbh my Spring one is "mark 1" and needs to be updated which wont be done until next year. (busy on Autumn and September indexes atm)

The top 20 are
2022 - 1424
1976 - 1309
1995 - 1279
1990 - 1274
2011 - 1250
1949 - 1213
2020 - 1205
1933 - 1197
2003 - 1182
1959 - 1154
2018 - 1152
2009 - 1138
1940 - 1131
1975 - 1113
1989 - 1096
1952 - 1091
2015 - 1090
2013 - 1084
1955 - 1049
1934 - 1047

The bottom 20 are

2007 - 795
2004 - 782
1965 - 780
1941 - 777
1951 - 775
1936 - 772
1971 - 771
1998 - 769
1958 - 760
1988 - 752
1985 - 751
1987 - 736
1954 - 731
1968 - 724
1948 - 714
1932 - 662
2012 - 654
1969 - 623
1931 - 605
(1981 - 595 ... might be wrong)

Oh, and 2023 will not make the bottom 20, but be somewhere between there and half way... so bottom half.

Interesting; should 1981 really be bottom? With that fine August? I realise some of the other months were a bit rubbish - but surprised.

Edited August 24, 2023 by Summer8906

[mushymanrob]

53 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

all i can say is 1981?

Yes found my mathematical error... scrub 1981, it finished just below halfway point, probably whereabouts 2023 will finish,

 

Just now, Summer8906 said:

Should 1981 really be bottom? With that fine August? I realise some of the other months were a bit rubbish - but surprised.

see above

[Summer8906]

6 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Yes found my mathematical error... scrub 1981, it finished just below halfway point, probably whereabouts 2023 will finish,

 

see above

Yes, I suppose there are similarities between 1981 and 2023, except the fine period was a good deal earlier this year.

[mushymanrob]

owing to my 1981 error,

1977 - 799

takes its 20th worst position..

[Summer8906]

Interesting to note the lack of 1956 in the sin bin. Presumably it had a very much better spring.

Same I guess with 1974 which is frequently quoted as a poor year.

Edited August 24, 2023 by Summer8906

[B87]

7 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

July 1980 was better than 23. At least it did contain a few very warm and sunny days in the last week or so. 

July 1980 was one of the coldest Julys on record at Heathrow, narrowly ahead of 1954 and 1965. It was a dreadful month. Those temps would be decent for May, but would even be below average in September!

Edited August 24, 2023 by B87

[Addicks Fan 1981]

14 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

owing to my 1981 error,

1977 - 799

takes its 20th worst position..

If I'm honest mushy I think 2023 isn't a million miles away from 1997 and 2009.   Both were el niño driven years like this and both had very wet months in.    

[Summer8906]

1 minute ago, B87 said:

July 1980 was one of the coldest Julys on record at Heathrow, narrowly ahead of 1954 and 1965. It was a dreadful month. Those temps would be decent for May, but would even be below average in September!

The point though is July 1980 did have several consecutive warm, sunny days after the 21st - something 2023 did not, AFAIK, manage.

[B87]

2 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

The point though is July 1980 did have several consecutive warm, sunny days after the 21st - something 2023 did not, AFAIK, manage.

July 2023 was slightly wetter and sunnier than July 1980. 22.9c average max in 2023 was poor, but nothing compared to the unbelievably cold 19.7c in 1980.

Edited August 24, 2023 by B87

[Thundery wintry showers]

7 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

I was in the far south, which probably helped: but it was July 18th-20th, IIRC - a Monday to Wednesday.

I was thinking about the ridge of pressure on the 14th-16th.  Yes, the synoptic charts on 18-20 July are consistent with three consecutive settled sunny days in the far south, especially south-east, and I think when I last looked at the UK's sunshine totals, coastal areas of the S and SE managed over 200 hours of sunshine in July 1988 - still rather below the local average, but high enough to support the 18th-20th having been sunny in those regions.  

I think you can certainly make a case for July 2023 being comparable to July 1988 in at least some regions of the country, especially as the higher temperatures of July 2023 owe a lot to the general global warming trend and also the exceptionally high sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic.  What really sets the two years apart is the respective Junes.  Admittedly June 1988 was warm and sunny, and very dry, in most parts of Scotland, but low cloud off the North Sea regularly affected much of England at intervals through the month, whereas in June 2023, which ranked as the UK's warmest and 4th sunniest June, widespread North Sea low cloud was largely limited to the first week of the month.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

22 minutes ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

I was thinking about the ridge of pressure on the 14th-16th.  Yes, the synoptic charts on 18-20 July are consistent with three consecutive settled sunny days in the far south, especially south-east, and I think when I last looked at the UK's sunshine totals, coastal areas of the S and SE managed over 200 hours of sunshine in July 1988 - still rather below the local average, but high enough to support the 18th-20th having been sunny in those regions.  

I think you can certainly make a case for July 2023 being comparable to July 1988 in at least some regions of the country, especially as the higher temperatures of July 2023 owe a lot to the general global warming trend and also the exceptionally high sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic.  What really sets the two years apart is the respective Junes.  Admittedly June 1988 was warm and sunny, and very dry, in most parts of Scotland, but low cloud off the North Sea regularly affected much of England at intervals through the month, whereas in June 2023, which ranked as the UK's warmest and 4th sunniest June, widespread North Sea low cloud was largely limited to the first week of the month.

Would you say overall @Thundery wintry showersthat this summer is a mixture of 1976 and 2009?   

[Thundery wintry showers]

There are some similarities, as both years have had frequent settled spells in June with the high pressure often to the north, and a very cyclonic and wet July.  But there are also some differences - June 2009, while warmer, sunnier and drier than average for most, was nothing like as exceptional as June 2023 in most parts of the UK, especially for warmth and sunshine.  Also, while temperatures and rainfall were comparable in the Julys of 2009 and 2023, and sunshine was comparable in the south-west, July 2009 was considerably sunnier in the north and east.

I spent July 2009 in Norwich and July 2023 in Lincoln, and I recall July 2009 being wet but with close to average sunshine, with an emphasis on showers and thunderstorms was maintained for much of the month.  There were spells like that in the first half of July 2023 also, but the second half of July 2023 was generally dull and wet here with an emphasis on bands of light or moderate frontal rain moving through. 

As for comparisons with 1976, again there are similarities between the Junes but June 2023 was marked by consistent heat rather than any outstanding hot spells, in contrast to the extreme heat at the end of June 1976.

Edited August 24, 2023 by Thundery wintry showers

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, Summer8906 said:

Interesting to note the lack of 1956 in the sin bin. Presumably it had a very much better spring.

Same I guess with 1974 which is frequently quoted as a poor year.

 

1 hour ago, B87 said:

July 1980 was one of the coldest Julys on record at Heathrow, narrowly ahead of 1954 and 1965. It was a dreadful month. Those temps would be decent for May, but would even be below average in September!

 

1956 and 1980 both had sunny dry Mays which lifted them up my index, 1974 comes in 21st worst.

[Summer8906]

14 hours ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

I was thinking about the ridge of pressure on the 14th-16th.  Yes, the synoptic charts on 18-20 July are consistent with three consecutive settled sunny days in the far south, especially south-east, and I think when I last looked at the UK's sunshine totals, coastal areas of the S and SE managed over 200 hours of sunshine in July 1988 - still rather below the local average, but high enough to support the 18th-20th having been sunny in those regions.  

I think you can certainly make a case for July 2023 being comparable to July 1988 in at least some regions of the country, especially as the higher temperatures of July 2023 owe a lot to the general global warming trend and also the exceptionally high sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic.  What really sets the two years apart is the respective Junes.  Admittedly June 1988 was warm and sunny, and very dry, in most parts of Scotland, but low cloud off the North Sea regularly affected much of England at intervals through the month, whereas in June 2023, which ranked as the UK's warmest and 4th sunniest June, widespread North Sea low cloud was largely limited to the first week of the month.

Ah, ok, thanks - I can't remember any ridge on the 14th-16th, and certainly no particularly good weather. The 18th-20th certainly stood out for me. As for the rest of the month, ISTR the first half was the worst with dull windy weather and moderate rain (and an unseasonable storm on the first weekend, "Charley's Revenge"), while the latter part (post-20th) was better with more NW-lies and showery episodes with sunshine.

Interesting that the southern coast exceeded 200 in July 1988, which is my threshold for acceptable sunshine in a summer month. As a recent comparison, I seem to remember much of inland southern England failing to reach 200 in July 2019. I lived around 20 miles from the coast that year. Wonder how widely 200 was exceeded in July 2023.

Edited August 25, 2023 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

14 hours ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Would you say overall @Thundery wintry showersthat this summer is a mixture of 1976 and 2009?   

Mind you, wasn't August 2009 considerably more settled, and drier, than the current August? While I'm out of this country this month seems to have had more unsettled weather than 2009, with two named storms (more than the entire winter, though this was likely down to France naming the storms before us) and shorter spells of settled weather.

2009, IIRC, had persistently high pressure across the south; it wasn't always sunny but it did seem very dry, with an alternation of fine, and cool/cloudy weather depending on the airmass source.

Edited August 25, 2023 by Summer8906

[BruenSryan]

2 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

Mind you, wasn't August 2009 considerably more settled, and drier, than the current August? While I'm out of this country this month seems to have had more unsettled weather than 2009, with two named storms (more than the entire winter, though this was likely down to France naming the storms before us) and shorter spells of settled weather.

2009, IIRC, had persistently high pressure across the south; it wasn't always sunny but it did seem very dry, with an alternation of fine, and cool/cloudy weather depending on the airmass source.

Definitely some more anticyclonic influence for the south/southeast in 2009 but way deeper troughing in 2009 for the north giving a very wet month for Scotland and Ireland. 2023 average heights nationwide, probably from more settled periods balancing out with the exceptionally deep lows this month has had. 

[B87]

6 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

Interesting that the southern coast exceeded 200 in July 1988, which is my threshold for acceptable sunshine in a summer month. As a recent comparison, I seem to remember much of inland southern England failing to reach 200 in July 2019. I lived around 20 miles from the coast that year. Wonder how widely 200 was exceeded in July 2023.

Coastal areas would expect to see 250+ hours on average though, so 200 is still very poor for them.

London had 219 hours in July 2019, exactly average. In July 2023, it had about 170. You have to go back to 1992 to find a duller July.

[MP-R]

6 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

Mind you, wasn't August 2009 considerably more settled, and drier, than the current August? While I'm out of this country this month seems to have had more unsettled weather than 2009, with two named storms (more than the entire winter, though this was likely down to France naming the storms before us) and shorter spells of settled weather.

2009, IIRC, had persistently high pressure across the south; it wasn't always sunny but it did seem very dry, with an alternation of fine, and cool/cloudy weather depending on the airmass source.

The names storm issue is a new thing though, and a bit of a red herring, as notably strong winds have been quite localised.

I recorded much stronger gusts in august 2009 on the 28th when an unnamed but more potent low crossed the country. Gave a good thunderstorm that day too.

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, B87 said:

Coastal areas would expect to see 250+ hours on average though, so 200 is still very poor for them.

London had 219 hours in July 2019, exactly average. In July 2023, it had about 170. You have to go back to 1992 to find a duller July.

Surprised that coastal areas would get around 250, which is more than 8 hours per day.

I live not far from the coast, and summer months which achieve 8+ hrs sunshine a day on average seem to be quite rare. In recent years I'd be surprised if anything other than June/July 2018, July/August 2022, and this June achieved that - but may be wrong.

Edited August 25, 2023 by Summer8906

[B87]

2 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Surprised that coastal areas would get around 250, which is more than 8 hours per day.

I live not far from the coast, and summer months which achieve 8+ hrs sunshine a day on average seem to be quite rare. In recent years I'd be surprised if anything other than June/July 2018, July/August 2022, and this June achieved that - but may be wrong.

Average July sunshine for select coastal cities.

Manston: 243 hours

Hastings: 253 hours

Eastbourne: 252 hours

Bognor Regis: 254 hours

Southsea: 262 hours

Shanklin: 269 hours

Weymouth: 246 hours

[Summer8906]

3 minutes ago, B87 said:

Average July sunshine for select coastal cities.

Manston: 243 hours

Hastings: 253 hours

Eastbourne: 252 hours

Bognor Regis: 254 hours

Southsea: 262 hours

Shanklin: 269 hours

Weymouth: 246 hours

Thanks for that, amazingly high, Shanklin almost reaching 9 hours/day.

[B87]

1 minute ago, Summer8906 said:

Thanks for that, amazingly high, Shanklin almost reaching 9 hours/day.

Shanklin averages around 2000 hours per year, probably the sunniest weather station in the UK. 

 

[Summer8906]

Not sure if 1965 has come up yet but if you consider April-September rather than March-August, i.e. the lighter/warmer 6 months of the year, that must surely be one of the worst.

April and May - nothing special, mixed, slightly on the cloudy side

June,July,August,September - all cool and wet!

The usual 1980s pattern of poor summers and nice Septembers did not apply in 1965, and they had to wait until October for a decent month, which was somewhat warm, sunny and very dry in the SE with a max of 26C.

Edited September 5, 2023 by Summer8906

[LetItSnow!]

On 25/08/2023 at 10:35, BruenSryan said:

Definitely some more anticyclonic influence for the south/southeast in 2009 but way deeper troughing in 2009 for the north giving a very wet month for Scotland and Ireland. 2023 average heights nationwide, probably from more settled periods balancing out with the exceptionally deep lows this month has had. 

I feel like I read that August 2009 had an extreme contrast in rainfall between the northwest and the southeast, the southeast being very dry and the northwest being unprecedentedly wet.

 

Memory serves true! Trevor Harley wrote about August 2009: "Parts of Norfolk saw only 5 mm of rain, the lowest since 1947, while several spots in the NW had record amounts of rainfall for August: Eskdalemuir had 394 mm (over 15 inches!) of rain, four times the average amount. The England and Wales rainfall total was 65 mm (90% of average), while Scotland saw 193% and Northern Ireland 205%."

Extreme contrast.

[cheeky_monkey]

14 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

I feel like I read that August 2009 had an extreme contrast in rainfall between the northwest and the southeast, the southeast being very dry and the northwest being unprecedentedly wet.

 

Memory serves true! Trevor Harley wrote about August 2009: "Parts of Norfolk saw only 5 mm of rain, the lowest since 1947, while several spots in the NW had record amounts of rainfall for August: Eskdalemuir had 394 mm (over 15 inches!) of rain, four times the average amount. The England and Wales rainfall total was 65 mm (90% of average), while Scotland saw 193% and Northern Ireland 205%."

Extreme contrast.

i was doing a project in Coat bridge just outside Glasgow in the summer of 2009 flying up from London every other week..i do remember it often being thoroughly wet and miserable in Glasgow yet it would be warm and dry back in London