Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

[Guest]

We actually have a little bit of mid level instability moving in from the south this morning. Certainly nothing to write home about but certainly a shift in the pattern is a foot! 

[sheikhy]

5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

We actually have a little bit of mid level instability moving in from the south this morning. Certainly nothing to write home about but certainly a shift in the pattern is a foot! 

And over here we got the same old parasitic north sea muck stuck on top of us like it has over the last 10 days!!!!

[alexisj9]

16 minutes ago, Alderc said:

We actually have a little bit of mid level instability moving in from the south this morning. Certainly nothing to write home about but certainly a shift in the pattern is a foot! 

Well all I have is cloud lol, worse than any other morning this week, this morning so far 

Edited June 7, 2023 by alexisj9

[ChannelThunder]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

We actually have a little bit of mid level instability moving in from the south this morning. Certainly nothing to write home about but certainly a shift in the pattern is a foot! 

Spotted this too! UKV not looking great for us down here now, basically no imports or channel developments, some very meaty storms showing further north for some though. Starting to get the feeling it'll be a non-event down here.

[Southern Storm]

1 hour ago, alexisj9 said:

Well all I have is cloud lol, worse than any other morning this week, this morning so far 

Taken at 7:30 this morning, a little taster of things to come  

Edited June 7, 2023 by Southern Storm

[ChannelThunder]

While the UKV has given up on anything down here on Friday night, ECM at least gives hope.

 

It then shows pressure rising from the S later on Saturday, so I don't think we're in for any further 'imports'. The homegrown action will be much further north of course, far inland and tracking to the NNW, so for us south coasters, I think we have to pin all hopes on Friday night.

[Guest]

2 hours ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

Spotted this too! UKV not looking great for us down here now, basically no imports or channel developments, some very meaty storms showing further north for some though. Starting to get the feeling it'll be a non-event down here.

Wouldn’t worry too much about that, things probably won’t firm up until Friday morning and even then it’ll be radar watching late into Friday evening. 

[Eagle Eye]

34 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Wouldn’t worry too much about that, things probably won’t firm up until Friday morning and even then it’ll be radar watching late into Friday evening. 

Yep, there's still lots of conflicting about mode and exact positioning. Until its within 54 hours on the UKV, the UKV can be horribly wrong. I remember it predicting a squall for the SW and Wales last year that become a SE and east anglia event. Friday night isn't sorted out yet and neither is the weekend, still could be some possibilities into the weekends nights. The wind changing direction may allow for the often under modelled NE France and Benelux storms to drift our way ish. For the central south that's more hoping for Friday night but the weekend still is by no means firmed up anywhere yet.

[kold weather]

1 hour ago, Eagle Eye said:

Yep, there's still lots of conflicting about mode and exact positioning. Until its within 54 hours on the UKV, the UKV can be horribly wrong. I remember it predicting a squall for the SW and Wales last year that become a SE and east anglia event. Friday night isn't sorted out yet and neither is the weekend, still could be some possibilities into the weekends nights. The wind changing direction may allow for the often under modelled NE France and Benelux storms to drift our way ish. For the central south that's more hoping for Friday night but the weekend still is by no means firmed up anywhere yet.

Something I've noticed in a long period of model watching is the UKMO suite can often adjust further east than originally expected (we see that also in the tropical suite of the model interestingly as well!) of course we need to take each set-up on its own merit.

I think alot will as per normal depend on just how much cloud cover comes up from the south and how much remnant muck comes along with any decaying systems from the south which might limit how much instablity can be tapped into.

Still it does look like a fairly classic unstable sticky humid weekend. We had a few of those back in 2004 (from what I remember was a pretty thundery summer) and if we get any sunshine I think 26-28c looks probable.

[Metwatch]

Getting some May 26-27th 2018 vibes from this morning's UKV. It will be interesting to see how this evolves but at last something worth watching in the closer time frame now.

Edited June 7, 2023 by Metwatch

[CoventryWeather]

5 hours ago, Metwatch said:

Getting some May 26-27th 2018 vibes from this morning's UKV. It will be interesting to see how this evolves but at last something worth watching in the closer time frame now.

What happened on the 26/27th May 2018? Can't remember that date too much. 

[Metwatch]

18 minutes ago, CoventryWeather said:

What happened on the 26/27th May 2018? Can't remember that date too much. 

My memory of it is waking up at 2am on the 27th, opening the curtains and there being a spectacular lightning show. The same day there were strong thunderstorms forming by mid afternoon under an amber warning for rain. Wasn't a direct hit for me, but there was a lot of activity with frequent thunder and lightning further away. A great summer followed so I'm always fond of that period. 

 

[ChannelThunder]

 

Friday night fireworks for the south west, according to ECM. It even just about brushes me with a storm come 4am!

[viking_smb]

10 minutes ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

 

Friday night fireworks for the south west, according to ECM. It even just about brushes me with a storm come 4am!

I would wait until fri as the models will be chopping and changing 

[Arnie Pie]

2 hours ago, CoventryWeather said:

What happened on the 26/27th May 2018? Can't remember that date too much. 

Memorable, Met was right. 

The day started of bad, Villa lost to Fulham in the play off final at Wembley

and then this happened on the night

Edited June 7, 2023 by Arnie Pie

[CoventryWeather]

Remember a few night-time storms in the past few years, but knowing dates is a no for me! Thanks for the help! 

Hoping for a few days of storms here. Maybe I'm being a bit optimistic, but models still unsure on developments on the occluded front and troughs.

[Joey.GII]

3 hours ago, CoventryWeather said:

What happened on the 26/27th May 2018? Can't remember that date too much. 

My best ever chase! Drove from Derbyshire to Dorset in plenty of time and got the following photo. Thought it was all over come about midnight but storms fired over London way (much further east than orginally forecast) and turned into a huge line (mcs?) accross the midlands  that I followed just behind most of the way back north, watching probably the best lightning I've ever seen!

[Eagle Eye]

Midlands on Sunday, lots of energy with a low LCL and high EL suggesting lots of entrainment CAPE as well so strong storms possible according to the GFS. It does best for me in terms of an import or two and a couple homegrown storms than pretty much all of the CAM's which makes me nervous. However, it's still very aggressive with the Midlands.

[ancientsolar]

I remember us all gathering in this forum posting 100s of links to weather cams as storms hit Plymouth with flashes of lightning a few every second. according to my old video it was May 27th 2017 (at least by the time it got to Wales) 

As for me it didn't matter if the storm hit here, when the Storm was hitting Plymouth I could see the strobes from the lightning in S Wales. 

This was the most epic storm I had seen since my teen years, - I believe 2001-2002, a storm rumbled through Wales lasting hours in the night, the following morning, some of the darkest most terrifying skies appeared before giving way to a big storm --- 

-- as for this year, there was only one thunderstorm around here (last month I think) , with some of the best hail I have seen outside of late Autumn. 

so if these storms are to hit Friday night, are we likely to see a repeat of 2017?

[Guest]

Arome at 18Z tomorrow evening pretty aggressive in breaking out showers and thunderstorms along the south coast. 
 

[CoventryWeather]

11 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

Midlands on Sunday, lots of energy with a low LCL and high EL suggesting lots of entrainment CAPE as well so strong storms possible according to the GFS. It does best for me in terms of an import or two and a couple homegrown storms than pretty much all of the CAM's which makes me nervous. However, it's still very aggressive with the Midlands.

I'm not brilliant at reading these, but would that show cloud heights near to 35k feet? 

Also, do you have a link to these as well? Thanks. 

[Guest]

UKV 06Z has barely a drop of rain before 12Z on Saturday and is completely uninterested in a Friday night, early Saturday morning event. 

[AWD]

MetO have just issued a yellow warning for Thunderstorms on Saturday for much of NW England, the Midlands, London, and areas around the M4 corridor, and all of Wales.

Edited June 8, 2023 by AWD

[chapmanslade]

Just remember there a LOT of things that can 'go wrong' with storm forecasts - so don't start screaming 'bust' before, during and after the event!

There will be plenty of storm activity in France on Friday moving north, these may well be relatively elevated (cloud bases 5k ft) so unaffected by sea temperature, but they may also spill a lot of cloud north that will supress temperatures on Saturday. 

[Mapantz]

I'm quite glad that nothing is showing for here. I'm not really interested in half-arsed events.

A bit more in the way of cloud Saturday/Sunday, but  dry and remaining warm.