Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

[Gordon Webb]

8 minutes ago, A Face like Thunder said:

Yes, unusually we seem to be in the centre of things here in S Cheshire. I shall be interested to see what happens outside later on, but more interested in seeing what happens in Istanbul later this evening!

best to avoid the big screens if they are doing that , recommend a pub of home with a few cans

[Dan the Man]

Forecast soundings suggest the potential for MLCAPE on the order of 1,000-1,500 J/kg generally, but perhaps locally 2,000 J/kg where higher dewpoints exist, with cloud tops potentially to 40,000ft (-60C or colder). While flow aloft will be fairly weak (~15kts at 500hPa, for example) a reasonable degree of low-level wind shear is evident with slightly backed near-surface winds. Despite limited shear, the magnitude of instability may be sufficient for the strongest cells to become better organised with potential for some transient supercell characteristics.

This is a ramposauras-rex.

I'm actually flying out of Heathrow at 4pm today, heading SE - could be a little interesting!

[summer blizzard]

15 hours ago, Alderc said:

I don’t think it’ll be that bad to be honest. 
 

But one Arome or Arpege going to be very wrong tomorrow. 
 

Arome won that round. 

[Liam Burge]

Just now, summer blizzard said:

Arome won that round. 

Although quite a bit more west than forecast.

[ChezWeather]

Going off UKV and AROME, initial lift off looks to be around 2pm

[Thomas Francis]

Im just on the 60% risk of thunderstorms. Great here comes another flash flooding..

[Azazel]

Doubt I’ll see anything here but patches of Accas now drifting in from the south west

[Eagle Eye]

Me and Jay have updated the risk map slightly. We kept the moderate risk for today though because theres still a few issues to do with capping slightly and we want a high risk to essentially be guaranteed storms and he's worrying about the cloud just behind initiation even though the cloud was always going to be there because its the decaying occluded front.  The storms ride ahread of that decaying occluded front anyway.

[Thomas Francis]

I think this is where we're looking at. High chance of development of Severe T-storms with large hail/flash flooding and with a chance of some supercell clouds 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Central south is baking - feel that the risk is going to be further S than the original high / svr. There is also tentative signs of development here, and we are on the southern border of the original SLGT zone.

A day of surprises, perhaps?

[jamesthemonkeh]

Not a bad attempt from AI to design a storm shield.

[UnderTheAnvil]

2 hours ago, Supacell said:

Not often we see a high risk from Convective Weather. I will be heading north west into the high risk zone this afternoon.

Godspeed supacell, I'm heading to Devon today for holiday reasons, I'd have gotten the train to Liverpool if I weren't.

4 minutes ago, Thomas Francis said:

I think this is where we're looking at. High chance of development of Severe T-storms with large hail/flash flooding and with a chance of some supercell clouds 

I have a feeling we might drive straight through something, what's the ETA on storms?

[Thomas Francis]

2 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Central south is baking - feel that the risk is going to be further S than the original high / svr. There is also tentative signs of development here, and we are on the southern border of the original SLGT zone.

A day of surprises, perhaps?

Yeah, it might happen eventually over the coming hours

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Just now, jamesthemonkeh said:

Not a bad attempt from AI to design a storm shield.

I’m a little hesitant to post many of the AI pics I’ve got on here now, but that is a good un

I tried putting “Sheffield storm” into one generator I use and it caused an unrecoverable error which crashed the system, and several people lost their jobs. Don’t do it!

[Thomas Francis]

1 minute ago, UnderTheAnvil said:

Godspeed supacell, I'm heading to Devon today for holiday reasons, I'd have gotten the train to Liverpool if I weren't.

I have a feeling we might drive straight through something, what's the ETA on storms?

The yellow weather warning will be issued by 14.00, so might as well keep our heads up on this situlation 

[Azazel]

Courtesy of midjourney - let’s hope Birmingham sees some of this later 

[Lauren]

Looks like it's going to be very much a ow casting event where I am for tonight. I think if we do see action it's likely to be distant.

[Thomas Francis]

The storms are trying to develope over in Devon and Dorset I think, I don't know.

[Guest]

34 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Arome won that round. 

Unfortunately 

[Sparkiee storm]

Dunno whether to stay put or to head a little to the NW later. Might see how things develop and decide later, but i have a feeling things are gonna explode this afternoon in some parts of the Midlands, Wales and NW England.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

My concern regarding a long drive north is that the evolution could become a bit messy, with some discrete cells lasting but daughter cells / back builders making for lots of repositioning - which for me means anxiously driving about trying to find viewpoints. Add to that potential for hazardous road conditions local to any severe elements, plus the potential that things may kick-off closer to home, I don’t think I’ll venture too far.

But with that said I wish all the luck to those who are on a mission to get in amongst it

[Guest]

Ridiculous difference between the 00Z and the 06Z arome. 
 

 

[Peachy]

4 minutes ago, Sparkiee storm said:

Dunno whether to stay put or to head a little to the NW later. Might see how things develop and decide later, but i have a feeling things are gonna explode this afternoon in some parts of the Midlands, Wales and NW England.

Stay put sparkiee.  I'm just down the road in cannock. Trust me we are in the hot spot area 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Just now, Alderc said:

Ridiculous difference between the 00Z and the 06Z arome. 
 

 

Nothing ridiculous about picture #2

[It's a Philcast]

Cloud building across North Worcestershire right now.