Storms and Convective discussion - July 2023

[ChannelThunder]

Lots of 'thunderbugs' about! Living up to their name for some of us 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Northern France going bang again. A good sign for central areas later?

[ChannelThunder]

Just now, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Northern France going bang again. A good sign for central areas later?

We've got a clear slot at the moment and boy is it ripe in the sun (ripe for the UK, anyway...)

[Eagle Eye]

Just now, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Northern France going bang again. A good sign for central areas later?

Slight change of flow later I think so the central south might just miss them if the CAPE transitions with the flow but that's based off the models which have been bad for today.

[northriding]

1 hour ago, seabreeze86 said:

Torrential rain here now with thunder

Heard a solitary rumble from over your way, coincidentally while I was watering the lawn.

Not had a drop of rain here, could really do with some for the garden.

[Sam jackson88]

Cells in channel islands are popping off

[Methuselah]

Unless that putative blob of storms hits us overnight, it's the usual sod-all over here! 

[viking_smb]

well happy that the front page of netweather has weymouth on it

[CoventryWeather]

8 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Slight change of flow later I think so the central south might just miss them if the CAPE transitions with the flow but that's based off the models which have been bad for today.

Have you got the steering flow for the next few hours? Those showers look NNE to me - and I don't think there's another shift later. 

[Tim Bland]

52 minutes ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

Metweather has a very interesting point for Southern/Central England tonight. As forecasted a few rotating supercells could occur in an untapped environment.

 

Can’t see much interest tonight on any of the high res models? Time will tell but not holding much hope for this evening

[ChannelThunder]

6 minutes ago, CoventryWeather said:

Have you got the steering flow for the next few hours? Those showers look NNE to me - and I don't think there's another shift later. 

Quick mobile screenshot for 3pm BST:

Edit: it does turn more NE down here in the coming hours 

Edited July 8, 2023 by ChannelThunder

[Azazel]

3 minutes ago, ChannelThunder said:

Quick mobile screenshot for 3pm BST:

Edit: it does turn more NE down here in the coming hours 

Of course it does. Mother Nature will do anything she can to ensure storms do not move into Hampshire. 

[Arnie Pie]

1 hour ago, Eagle Eye said:

Kelvin-Helmholtz waves

....or Russian Noctilucent clouds ( maybe for another forum)

[The Tall Weatherman]

10 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Can’t see much interest tonight on any of the high res models? Time will tell but not holding much hope for this evening

I think there is still interest for Hertfordshire especially in usually the most accurate models. I picked out a twitter post which you are in the firing line of !

 

[Don]

It's getting active around here now!

[SarahWxm]

Omg this storm over Wrexham is one of the most strangest but amazing that I’ve ever seen. Huge flashes of lightning very high up in the clouds and the thunder has rumbled constantly with no breaks for the last 25 minutes. Rain is horrendous as were the initial winds as the storm approached. If this was night time it would be constant flashing. My road is also flooded again! Lol

Edited July 8, 2023 by SarahWxm

[SarahWxm]

Another video from the storm. Videos are not that great, but my house is shaking from some of the booms lol. Love it  

[summer blizzard]

28 minutes ago, CoventryWeather said:

Have you got the steering flow for the next few hours? Those showers look NNE to me - and I don't think there's another shift later. 

You can see on radar. In front of the front the showers were moving North with movement NNW within the front and showers. Behind the front everything is moving NNE. 

[seabreeze86]

37 minutes ago, northriding said:

Heard a solitary rumble from over your way, coincidentally while I was watering the lawn.

Not had a drop of rain here, could really do with some for the garden.

Had quite a few lightning strikes also. Rain was torrential for 20 mins now just light 

Main event tonight 

[Sprites]

2 minutes ago, SarahWxm said:

Another video from the storm. Videos are not that great, but my house is shaking from some of the booms lol. Love it  

IMG_3834.mov

Another storm is heading your way, but not as intense ATM. 

[SarahWxm]

Round two incoming and just as severe as the first!!! Thunder and lightning is incredible. 

[TJS1998Tom]

Can just tell if we get something it'll be between 6-9pm when I'll be at work 

[Nick F]

Pretty active area of storms organising across east Wales, west Cheshire and now nudging into Wirral + Merseyside.

I highlighted the Welsh Borders being an area in the afternoon for possible severe storm development in the Netweather Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued yesterday evening. A look at model wind profiles and in the upper levels there appears to be a shortwave trough and left exit of a strong jet streak arriving behind it moving up from the south, creating strong divergence aloft across Wales.

Worth keeping an eye on this area which looks like growing upscale into an MCS, NW England could have some issues with this storm complex next few hours!

Edited July 8, 2023 by Nick F

[Harry]

Nothing here so far.

Can’t work out if the cold front has been through yet but it’s still as warm and incredibly humid as it was earlier - current temp/dew point split is 24C/17C slightly encouraged by all the storms near the Channel Islands but the lightning again seems reluctant to head our way 

[ChannelThunder]

A nice pocket of instability heading north